Believe it or not, the race for the Democratic nomination has already narrowed to two main players and a gaggle of extras. The clutch of polling thus far is of uneven quality, to say the least, but former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) are the clear frontrunners with everyone else auditioning for Veep.

The fact is, the Democratic nomination process has become fairly predictable and stable. You have to go back to 1992 to find a race where multiple candidates were in the mix before and through the early primaries. The last true dark horse winner was Jimmy Carter in 1976.