First, we really have no idea how close this draft will be to the final published decision. We should remember that Chief Justice John Roberts initially voted with conservatives to overturn the Affordable Care Act in NFIB v. Sebelius. In fact, what became the minority opinion was first drafted as the majority opinion. Roberts only caved to political pressure and switched his vote in May 2012. It is entirely possible a justice who voted with conservatives in January will get cold feet and switch his or her vote.