In a new challenge to Ukraine on Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin offered Russian passports to residents of eastern Ukraine.

Putin did so in order to consolidate his control over Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (they call provinces “oblasts”) and give Russia a pretext to escalate against Kiev should it desire. Putin’s timing here is not surprising. Coming just a few days after the election of Volodymyr Zelenskiy as Ukraine’s next president, Putin is shaping the ground in eastern Ukraine so as to set the negotiating ground in his favor. He’s venturing that the outgoing Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is now a lame duck and will not risk escalation against Russia or the rebel forces it supports in Donetsk and Luhansk.