If I am a Democratic strategist, I am at least a little bit worried about the new Marquette Law School survey showing President Trump winning Wisconsin in hypothetical match-ups against top-tier 2020 Democratic primary candidates.
I would be worried not just because the survey marks the first time this year that a serious and credible polling group has released data showing Trump beating 2020 front-runner Joe Biden for what National Review’s John McCormack rightly calls a “potentially decisive” state. I would be worried also that the survey shows a gradual decline for the 2020 Democrats in theoretical match-ups against the president. I would be especially worried about the fact that the new poll shows Trump’s reelection numbers improving even amid the House’s impeachment investigation into his attempts to pressure Ukraine into investigating Biden.
The Marquette Law survey, which was conducted between Nov. 13 and 17 and surveyed 801 registered Wisconsin voters, shows Trump defeating Biden (47 to 44), Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (48 to 45) and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (48 to 43), and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (47 to 39).
Now, compare this to Marquette Law’s earlier surveys of Wisconsin. In October, the group’s numbers looked like this:
- Biden 50, Trump 44.
- Sanders 48, Trump 46.
- Warren 47, Trump 46.
- Buttigieg 43, Trump 45.
And in August, its numbers looked like this:
- Biden 51, Trump 42.
- Sanders 48, Trump 44.
- Warren 45, Trump 45.
It was on Sept. 25 that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the House would pursue an impeachment investigation against Trump. Between Pelosi’s announcement and Nov. 17, the final day of Marquette Law’s November survey of registered Wisconsin voters, there has been one televised Democratic debate and two televised impeachment hearings. There has also been a mountain of bad press for the president and White House.
Yet the new survey does not show Trump tanking with Wisconsin voters and the Democratic candidates soaring. It shows just the opposite, actually.
The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, found that 53% of Wisconsin voters said they do not think Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while a much smaller 40% said that he should be. In October, those numbers were 51% opposed to impeachment and removal and 44% in favor of it.
So, what gives? It is probably a combination of information overload and voters being unimpressed with the 2020 Democratic candidates.
It is a lot to stage televised impeachment hearings during an election year, all of it bolstered by 24-hour hair-on-fire news coverage, and expect voters to stay engaged.
Not everyone has the luxury of following every minute detail of the impeachment proceedings (people have full-time jobs, you know). It does not help either that the case against Trump is such that if you lose your place once, it is awfully hard to pick up where you left off.
Or worse, voters in Wisconsin may just have a better idea of the 2020 candidates than they did in August and October. Maybe they just don’t like what they see.
