Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has become a very complicated American ally in recent years.
On the positive side of the ledger, Ankara has consolidated NATO’s expansion and the security of its southern flank. It has also assisted in sensitive U.S.-Russia dialogue and prisoner exchanges. And it has bolstered Ukraine’s combat drone capabilities and grain export interests.
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On the negative side of the ledger, Erdogan has betrayed his NATO obligations by purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defense system. He has also increasingly boosted Islamist terrorist/fanatic groups across the Middle East. Further, Erdogan has undermined Greece’s sovereignty in the Eastern Mediterranean and Israeli security via his support for Hamas. And while it is wrong to seek a weak central government in Damascus, Israel is understandably concerned by escalating Turkish military activity in Syria (read my colleague Sean Durns here).
Fortunately, Greece and Israel struck a landmark agreement on Monday to boost their defensive cooperation against Turkey’s challenges. They’ve put pen to paper on a $3.4 billion deal that will see them build a highly advanced “Achilles Shield” air defense network for Greece. Athens has good reason to celebrate. Israeli air defense systems are highly advanced. In turn, the Achilles Shield will provide Greece with greater warning and security in the face of Erdogan’s imperialist appetites. In recent years, Turkey has made escalated moves to seize control over the Eastern Mediterranean at Greece’s direct expense.
This agreement, however, delivers broader strategic benefits.
For one, it establishes an improved deterrent structure against Turkish efforts to divide and conquer U.S. allies. If Erdogan believes that a future test of either Greek or Israeli sovereignty might lead to a joint response to that test, he is far less likely to pursue it in the first place. This is good news for stability. But also for America’s ability to leverage closer and more powerful allied relationships on matters of common concern. Erdogan wants to establish an informal Turkish empire across the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa. His success in doing so would be detrimental to global security and economic engagement. It would also substantially increase the risk of conflict. By putting defensive guardrails in his way, Greece and Israel can help temper Erdogan’s ambitions.
An additional benefit of this compact is its consolidation of Israel’s longer-term interests. Now under unprecedented international pressure, Israel’s engagement with Greece brings it new economic and diplomatic prestige. Boosting Israeli standing in international fora such as the United Nations, bolstered foreign relationships will also incentivize Israel to reject extreme policies that might otherwise risk the benefits of its new partnerships.
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As the United States moves to reduce its foreign aid provisions to Jerusalem, Israel’s economic and security architecture will increasingly depend upon its ability to forge diversified foreign relationships. And as with its arms sales to Greece and other European powers, it is far better that Israel’s formidable defense industrial base be centered in cooperation with U.S. allies than, as has too often been the case in recent years, China.
This defense deal is thus very good news. Two U.S. allies are working far more closely together to improve one another’s security. And through that improvement, the prospects for longer-term regional stability.
