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BIDEN APPROVAL SHOWING “FIRST SIGNS OF MEANINGFUL DECLINE.” For his first six months in office, President Joe Biden’s job approval has stayed pretty steady. As you saw last week, it was based largely on the public’s approval of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. But of course, that was the pre-delta variant period of the pandemic in which the news (dramatically lower numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) was nearly all good.
Now, however, Gallup says Biden’s approval rating is “showing the first signs of meaningful decline.” In the latest Gallup poll, Biden is at 50% approval and 45% disapproval — down from 57% approval and 37% disapproval at the start of his term. That sort of decline is “typical for recent presidents,” Gallup notes. Biden, who early on enjoyed great approval in some circles simply for not being former President Donald Trump, is beginning to succumb to the law of political gravity.
Who is behind the decline? Democrats and independents. Among members of his own party, Biden’s approval rating has slipped from 98% to 90%. Yes, that’s 8 points, but when you start with near-unanimous approval in your party, you’re still doing quite well if you “fall” to 90%. Biden’s bigger problem is with independents. In the Gallup poll, his approval rating among them was 61% at the beginning of his presidency and has now fallen to 48%. That marks “the first time he has less-than majority approval among independents,” notes Gallup. Here is the pollster’s chart for Biden’s first six months:
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The future is not bright for Biden’s approval. A new ABC News/Ipsos poll says that Biden’s approval for handling the economy has fallen below 50% among independents, and for the issues of immigration, crime, and gun violence, it is in the 30s.
But perhaps the biggest warning for Biden in the new ABC poll is the public’s answer to this simple question: “Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the ways things are going in this country?” In a survey at the end of April, 64% said they felt optimistic, versus 36% who felt pessimistic. Today, just 45% feel optimistic, versus 55% who feel pessimistic. That’s a huge drop in just 2 1/2 months. And it indicates a lack of confidence that things will get better under the Biden administration.
What does a declining approval rating mean for Biden? Less clout on Capitol Hill. Of course, he is still solid with nearly all Democrats, especially the most partisan ones. But for the “centrist” Democrats, most notably Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who have given Biden fits in a 50-50 Senate, Biden’s decline in support among independents will encourage more independence. That is why you see so many Democrats urging Biden to hurry up and push his agenda through Congress as quickly as possible, before his ratings decline more. The president is politically weaker today than he was three months ago, and he will likely be weaker still three months from now.
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