The economy, not judges, can win Trump a second term

For months, Trumpworld has struggled to pivot to post-pandemic messaging as his most obvious selling point, the historically strong economy, has been shattered by shutdowns across the country.

After a series of crucial blows to the conservative legal agenda administered by the Supreme Court, Trump seemed to debut a new tactic on Twitter:

There's no question that Trump's 2016 Supreme Court shortlist contributed both to the party establishment rallying around him and his victory in the Electoral College. But an open election against Hillary Clinton during a time of relative prosperity is not remotely the same as one against the consistently popular Joe Biden, who's also dominating older voters and crucial swing states. Despite having the advantage of incumbency, the margin of Biden's lead in key purple states makes Trump the underdog in this election, and the odds don't look great. It's time for Team Trump to get a reality check: The only way he wins this thing is if the economy turns around.

With midnight Twitter tirades and unnecessary stunts, Trump is his own worst enemy, and his campaign surely knows this. But those Democratic and centrist voters who sat out 2016 and inadvertently handed Trump the presidency can be made to ignore Trump's personal failures if he proves that he can turn the economy around.

Between job growth, a lack of coronavirus surging despite lockdown reversals, and booming markets, there are already signs that the recession ended some time in May. So, now, the question is how quickly the economy can recover.

Without an economic recovery, what is the affirmative case for Trump? If you're an immigration hard-liner, you never got your wall or your visa reform. If you're a social conservative who embraces judicial activism, you got at least one Supreme Court justice who doesn't. If you're a fiscal conservative, you have a $3.7 trillion deficit and the first Republican president in generations who proudly boasts he won't touch Medicare or Social Security, the two greatest sources of our exploding national debt. If you're a hawk, you have John Bolton slamming the president for allegedly cozying up to dictators and refusing to bomb our enemies. Then, the real case for Trump is that he's not Biden, and to the older voters and women who've overwhelmingly pivoted away from Trump, the half-dead guy that doesn't seem like a wacky socialist doesn't sound so bad.

All of that changes if the economy recovers enough in time. Consider, you can detest Trump's racially divisive remarks, but if Trump manages to reverse the catastrophic 16.8% black unemployment rate significantly and bring it closer to its all-time low of 5.8% in February, it becomes a lot easier to cast a ballot for the president. You may think Trump is guilty of the sexual misconduct allegations against him, but Trump can ameliorate the financial effects of the coronavirus that have disproportionately cost women — there's a utilitarian case for his candidacy. Revive the small businesses currently on life support, and all the tweets in the world may cease to matter for the voters who like neither Trump nor Biden on a personal level but felt the financial pain of these lockdowns.

Unlike in 2016, there isn't an open Supreme Court seat with the capacity to flip the balance crucially, and as the last two days have demonstrated, the president appoints justices, not outcomes. But more importantly, the stakes are higher and more personal. Trump has to appeal to the voters who stayed at home in 2016 out of a loathing for Clinton, not his own base that he repeatedly brags already loves him.

Of course, Trump continues to undermine what could save his campaign. He's still continued his administration's intentionally dishonest campaign against mask wearing, the single most important tool in enabling the reopening of the economy. But that we're now out of the recession should give him hope. And it's good for him because this is the only way he wins.