BIDEN: NO SUCH THING AS LIMITED NUCLEAR WAR: In an ominous warning that any use of nuclear weapons could spiral into a cataclysmic world-ending event, President Joe Biden last night invoked the Bible’s Armageddon in describing the peril posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use a tactical nuclear weapon to end the war in Ukraine on his terms.
In remarks at a fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in New York, Biden said Putin was “not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons” and called him “a guy I know fairly well.”
“I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden said, comparing Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis faced by President John F. Kennedy.
“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” Biden said, saying that the threat is dangerously real because Russia’s battlefield losses have made Putin increasingly desperate. “His military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”
BIDEN WARNS OF NUCLEAR ‘ARMAGEDDON’
NO MOVEMENT OF RUSSIAN NUKES DETECTED: Although at the beginning of his invasion of Ukraine, Putin ordered his nuclear force to move to a higher state of alert, there is no sign it ever did, and the United States is using all available intelligence capabilities to look for any movement of Russia’s arsenal of smaller, tactical nuclear weapons.
So far, there’s no indication that any so-called battlefield nukes are being moved out of arsenals or pre-positioned in a threatening manner.
“We’re taking it very seriously. We’ll continue to monitor,” said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, at a briefing yesterday.
“We do not have any information that would cause us to change our strategic deterrence posture,” Ryder told reporters. “And we don’t assess that President Putin has made a decision to use nuclear weapons at this time.”
ZELENSKY CALLS FOR ‘PREVENTATIVE ACTION’ FROM NATO TO KEEP RUSSIA FROM USING NUKES
RUSSIA’S ESCALATE-TO-DE-ESCALATE DOCTRINE: Under Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, which Putin formalized in a 2020 decree, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional warfare “when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”
The theory is that Russia could use a low-yield weapon about a third the size of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, delivered by bomber or cruise missile, to destroy a military target or take out a troop concentration, shocking the other side into surrender. This has been dubbed “escalate to de-escalate” by the U.S.
But most experts believe that in the case of Ukraine, any nuclear strike would only increase Ukraine’s resolve and galvanize world opinion against Russia, further destabilizing Putin’s hold on power.
And the conventional wisdom in Washington is that even if Putin were to pull the nuclear trigger, Biden is unlikely to respond in kind, the reason being that for all their fearsome power, nuclear weapons are not very practical in the current scenario.
“You don’t want to use nuclear weapons near your adversary’s front lines because the size of a nuclear explosion will put your own troops on the front line at risk,” argued Ward Wilson, the executive director of RealistRevolt, a group dedicated to the elimination of nuclear weapons. “You don’t want to use nuclear weapons against a target farther behind the lines because nuclear weapons can deposit lethal radiation up to 25 miles away and spread dangerous fallout hundreds or even thousands of miles away.”
READ MORE: WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF AN EXCHANGE OF ‘LOW-YIELD’ NUCLEAR WEAPONS WITH RUSSIA?
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HAPPENING TODAY: The American aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan is in international waters off the coast of South Korea, part of an armada of U.S., South Korean, and Japanese warships conducting missile defense drills in response to North Korean missile launches and provocative aerial maneuvers.
Yesterday, North Korea flew eight fighter jets and four bombers close to the border with the south and conducted an “air-to-surface firing drill,” which prompted South Korea to scramble 30 military aircraft in response.
That followed a week of missile launches by the North, including a test of its intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missile, which soared over Japan.
“In response to the DPRK’s provocative ballistic missile launch, the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group, joined by two Japanese Navy destroyers and one Republic of Korea Navy destroyer, arrived Oct. 5 in the Sea of Japan to conduct trilateral ballistic missile defense exercises,” said Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder.
“The exercises also demonstrate the deep strength of our trilateral relationship with Japan and the Republic of Korea, which is resolute against those who challenge regional stability,” said Ryder. “Moving forward, we will continue to consult closely with our allies and partners and stand ready to respond appropriately to any potential future provocative acts by North Korea.”
NORTH KOREA FLIES WARPLANES NEAR SOUTH KOREA, TRADING DEMONSTRATIONS OF POWER
N. KOREA POISED FOR NUCLEAR TEST: For months now, the U.S. has been bracing for an expected nuclear test by North Korea.
Heo Tae-keun, South Korea’s deputy minister of national defense policy, told lawmakers earlier this week that the North is ready to conduct its first nuclear test in five years and is preparing to test a new liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile and a submarine-launched ballistic missile, according to the Associated Press.
“It’s difficult to know with certainty exactly what Kim Jong Un is thinking on any given day. We don’t have perfect visibility into his decision-making process,” said John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications for the National Security Council.
“We are trying to make sure we can deter aggressive, provocative actions out of the North. But more importantly than that, actually just as importantly as that, is we want to make sure we have the appropriate military capabilities at the ready in the region in case we need them,” Kirby said on CNN.
IS SHOIGU HEADED FOR A FALL? There is increasing speculation that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will be fired, or worse, for the embarrassing failures of the Russian military in Ukraine.
Russian troops have not only been forced into panicked retreats, but their incompetence has handed over hundreds of perfectly good tanks, armored vehicles, and ammunition, which the Ukrainian Defense Ministry has trolled on social media as Russia’s “lend-lease” program to help arm Ukraine.
“The failure of Russian crews to destroy intact equipment before withdrawing or surrendering highlights their poor state of training and low levels of battle discipline,” said the British Defense Ministry in its daily Twitter update. “Re-purposed captured Russian equipment now makes up a large proportion of Ukraine’s military hardware.”
“Ukraine has likely captured at least 440 Russian Main Battle Tanks, and around 650 other armored vehicles since the invasion,” the assessment said. “Over half of Ukraine’s currently fielded tank fleet potentially consists of captured vehicles.”
“Many people say that if they were the minister of defense who brought things to this state of affairs, they would shoot themselves if they were real officers,” said Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Moscow proxy administration in Kherson, in a video posted on Telegram.
PUTIN ALLY URGES RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER TO KILL HIMSELF AS LOSSES MOUNT
KIRBY DEFENDS FIRING TROOP OVER VACCINE MANDATE: In an appearance on Fox Business, Kirby was grilled over the Pentagon’s plan to discharge military members who refuse the COVID-19 vaccine at a time when all branches of the armed services are in a recruiting crisis.
“Twenty thousand military people are about to be fired. And they’ll lose their benefits, including their pension, because they would not get a vaccine that doesn’t work,” asked Fox’s Stuart Varney. “Will you reverse this policy to keep valuable people in the military?”
“This is a valid medical military requirement, this vaccine. It works. It saves lives, and it certainly reduces the effect of COVID on the individual who is vaccinated,” replied Kirby.
Varney noted that Kirby was doing the interview from his home because he tested positive for COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated and double-boosted.
“Yes, I got COVID, but I got a very mild case because I was responsible and I was vaccinated,” Kirby said. “Look, just to join the military, Stuart, you got to take more than a dozen vaccines.”
When Varney suggested the COVID-19 vaccines were experimental, Kirby pushed back.
“The only vaccines that are required are those that are FDA-approved. FDA-approved vaccines, very similar to other vaccines that we issue to military troops,” he said. “Look, we’d rather not lose anybody. Of course, we’d like to keep all this talent in there, but if they’re going to make a decision to violate a lawful order, then they’re going to have to pay the consequences for that because the unit has to come first.”
AUSTIN AGREES WITH RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CONFEDERATE-NAMED MILITARY BASES
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden warns of nuclear ‘Armageddon’
Washington Examiner: Zelensky calls for ‘preventative action’ from NATO to keep Russia from using nukes
Washington Examiner: What are the chances of an exchange of ‘low-yield’ nuclear weapons with Russia?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Mr. Biden and Dr. Strangelove
Washington Examiner: Putin ally urges Russian defense minister to kill himself as losses mount
Washington Examiner: Putin ally threatens to turn Chechens loose on Russian dissidents
Washington Examiner: North Korea flies warplanes near South Korea, trading demonstrations of power
Washington Examiner: Brittney Griner placed ‘the most disturbing phone call’ to her wife
Washington Examiner: Austin agrees with recommendations for Confederate-named military bases
Washington Examiner: US military conducts raid targeting ‘senior ISIS official’ in Syria
Washington Examiner: Drone maker used by FBI and DHS is a Chinese military company, Pentagon says
Washington Examiner: House GOP demands investigation into Chinese ties to top US nuclear and weapons site
Washington Examiner: Opinion: It’s a hinge year in history — for Russia and China
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Facing China’s Uyghur genocide at the UN, money talks and Islam walks
AFP: Ukraine Presses Kherson Progress, Urges More Europe Help
Washington Post: With Invasion Faltering, Russians Ask A Risky Question: Could Putin Fall?
New York Times: Facing Battlefield Setbacks, Russia Lashes Out
Wall Street Journal: Threat at Nuclear Plant Worsens
Reuters: Nord Stream Investigation Finds Evidence Of Detonations, Swedish Police Say
Air & Space Forces Magazine: U.S.-Norway Solid-Fuel Ramjet Passes Tests for Speed, Range
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Mitchell Paper Urges USAF to Involve Operators Early in Collaborative Combat Aircraft Development
Air & Space Forces Magazine: To Deter China, Pentagon Must ‘Marry’ New Tech With Legacy Systems, Flournoy Says
Washington Post: Taiwan, Looking To Ukraine, Pursues Internet Backup
19fortyfive.com: Russia Just Said There Are ‘No Winners’ in a Nuclear War. Should We Be Confused?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Future: A Win in Ukraine, A Revolution Against Putin or Nuclear War?
19fortyfive.com: NLAW Tank-Killer Missile Is Still Killing Russian Tanks in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Could NATO Send Ukraine the Leopard 2 Tank to Fight Russia?
Marine Corps Times: After Negative Feedback, Marine Corps Tests Another PT Uniform
Calendar
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 7
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “The current state of affairs in Afghanistan,” with Fawzia Koofi, Afghan parliamentary lawmaker https://www.csis.org/events/armchair-discussion:-fawzia-koofi
MONDAY | OCTOBER 10
11:45 a.m. Walter Washington Convention Center — Association of the U.S. Army annual meeting and exposition press conference with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army; and Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Grinston https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/2022/2022
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 11
TBA — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg news conference ahead of NATO Defense Ministerial https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 12
TBA NATO Headquarters, Brussels — NATO defense ministers, including U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meet over two days at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. A separate meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group, hosted by the U.S., will also take place. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to conduct a news conference at the end of each day https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 14
2 p.m. — Center for Security and International Studies International Security Program and the U.S. Naval Institute Maritime Security Dialogue: “Seventh Fleet update,” with Vice Adm. Karl Thomas; retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; and Seth Jones, director, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis. … I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”
President Joe Biden, speaking at a fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Thursday night in New York, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not joking about the use of nuclear weapons
