MUSIC TO HIS EARS: President Trump will be greeted with an upbeat progress report on his pet peeve when he arrives in London for this week’s NATO leader’s meeting, marking the 70th anniversary of the transatlantic alliance.
Ahead of this week’s gathering of NATO heads of state, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the latest spending figures based on updated reports submitted by the alliance’s 29 member nations.
Last year Stoltenberg said NATO’s European allies and Canada were on track to spend $100 billion more on their own defense by the end of this year. “In fact, this figure now stands at $130 billion,” Stoltenberg said Friday. “Based on these plans, I can announce that the accumulated increase in defence spending by the end of 2024, will be $400 billion U.S. dollars.”
Since he took office in 2017, Trump has been sharply critical of NATO countries for failing to meet their pledge to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP. That goal was set in 2014 at the NATO summit in Wales, and member nations were given 10 years to meet it.
“This year nine allies will meet the guideline, up from just three allies a few years ago,” Stolteneberg said, “and the majority of allies have plans in place to reach 2% by 2024.”
THE BULGARIA BLIP: The numbers were juiced somewhat from what could be a one-year anomaly, Bulgaria’s planned purchase of eight Lockheed Martin F-16C/D aircraft for an estimated $1.7 billion.
That pushed Bulgaria’s defense spending as a percentage of GDP from 1.61% to 3.25%, second only to the U.S. which leads the pack with a defense budget at 3.42%, according to the latest NATO figures .
Bulgaria’s one-time purchase is what pushed the total number of countries above the 2% threshold from eight to nine. The other eight countries are the U.S., the U.K., Greece, Estonia, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland.
A SYMBOLIC VICTORY: Trump often portrays the 2% goal as money that countries owe NATO, when in fact it’s money the countries spend on themselves to increase their military capabilities in order to better contribute to the collective defense of the alliance.
But there is another, smaller pot of money that goes to operate and maintain NATO’s sprawling headquarters in Brussels as well as other overhead expenses, which runs about $2.5 billion.
In a gesture designed to address Trump’s complaints about the U.S paying more than its fair share, NATO nations have agreed to cut America’s subsidy of that budget next year from 22% to 16%, which will save the U.S. about $150 million.
Other NATO nations will make up the difference.
SOON IT WILL BE 30: With the U.S. Senate ratifying North Macedonia’s entry into NATO the tiny Balkan nation is on track to fulfill its longtime goal of NATO membership.
“Pleased to announce the United States deposited its ratification of North Macedonia's @NATO Accession Protocol. One step closer to welcoming #NorthMacedonia as NATO's 30th Ally!” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted yesterday.
The Senators voted 91-2 in October to approve North Macedonia’s accession. The country was unable to join until it ended a decades-long dispute with Greece, and agreed to change its name from “Macedonia” to “North Macedonia.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating ). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense .
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump depart for the United Kingdom to attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Leaders Meeting and a reception hosted by Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will deliver remarks at the University of Louisville as part of the McConnell Center’s Distinguished Speaker Series at 9:00 a.m. Streamed live at www.state.gov and www.mcconnellcenter.org
WHILE YOU WERE EATING TURKEY AND SHOPPING: Here’s a quick recap of events of the past four days, while we were on hiatus for the Thanksgiving holiday:
TRUMP SURPRISES TROOPS: The president sneaked away from his Mar-a-Lago retreat to make the 8,331 mile flight to Afghanistan aboard a C-17 to spend a few hours with U.S. troops on Thanksgiving day. At Bagram air base outside Kabul, he served some Turkey and posed for pictures, along with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley.
“I had a gorgeous piece of turkey. And I was all set to go, and I had some of the mashed potatoes and I had a bite of mashed potatoes. And I never got to the turkey, because General Milley said, ‘Come on over, sir. Let's take some pictures.’ I never got to my turkey.” Trump told the troops. “It's the first time in Thanksgiving that I've never had anything called turkey,” he joked. “I should have started with that, instead of the mashed potatoes. I made a mistake.”
TALIBAN TALKS: Trump also met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who at Trump’s invitation also spoke to the U.S. forces and thanked them for their sacrifice. Trump credited Ghani for his leadership, which he said was prompting the Taliban to come back to the negotiating table.
“The Taliban wants to make a deal,” Trump said. “And they only want to make a deal because you're doing a great job,” he told Ghani.
Later after meeting with Ghani, Trump said that meetings with the Taliban have resumed. “We're meeting with them, and we're saying it has to be a cease-fire. They didn't want to do a cease-fire, but now they do want to do a cease-fire, I believe. And it will probably work out that way. And we'll see what happens. But we've made tremendous progress.”
However the next day neither the Taliban nor the Afghan government could provide any details about negotiations for a cease-fire nor confirm new talks were underway.
IRAN BOILS: Iran is dealing with anti-government protests that was sparked initially by a 50% hike in gasoline prices, as the country's economy continues to be cripped by U.S. sanctions. At least 180 people have been killed in the resulting government crackdown.
“This is simply the Iranian people seeking freedom and economic success and a regime that's denying those two things to them,” said Pompeo in an interview with the Ben Shapiro show. “What you've seen in these past weeks is, frankly, a follow-on to what's been going on at a low level for an awfully long time, is the Iranian people saying enough - enough of the kleptocracy; enough of the theocracy.
IRAQ PM RESIGNS: Iraq is also being rocked by deadly protest, which prompted Iraq’s prime minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi to announce his resignation after 13 months in office. Iraqi citizens have been protesting unemployment, corruption and lack of services.
NORTH KOREA: With and end of the year deadline approaching, North Korea is continuing to test its new multiple launch rocket system, according to South Korean media.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has given Washington until the end of the year to come up with new proposals to restart denuclearization talks that have been stalled for months.
PARTING SHOT: Fired Navy Secretary Richard Spencer lashed out at President Trump for his intervention on the case of Navy SEAL Edward Gallagher in an op-ed in the Washington Post last week.
“This was a shocking and unprecedented intervention in a low-level review,” Spencer wrote. “ It was also a reminder that the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.
On Thanksgiving eve, the Navy announced it will no longer pursue action against three other SEALs involved in the Gallagher case, allowing them to keep their Tridents, as well.
The Rundown
AP : China to suspend US Navy visits to Hong Kong over new law
South China Morning Post : China Deploys Airship On Outpost In Disputed South China Sea, Satellite Firm Says
Washington Examiner : Trump turned Syria policy on its head. It’s working out better than critics thought
Yonhap News Agency : U.S. Set To Press S. Korea, NATO Over Burden-Sharing Next Week
Reuters : Iran still selling oil despite U.S. sanctions: TV
USNI News : Report: U.S. Shoulders Steep Price to Protect Merchant Ships in Strait Of Hormuz
New York Times : ‘Sent Candy’: Cockpit Tapes Show Russian Pilots Bombing Syrian Civilians
Wall Street Journal : China and Russia Are Partners—and Now Have a $55 Billion Pipeline to Prove It
New York Times : He Gave a Cryptocurrency Talk in North Korea. The U.S. Arrested Him.
Washington Post : Navy infrastructure plan will cost ‘billions’ more than expected, report says
Newport News Daily Press : To Build its Newest Aircraft Carrier, Newport News Shipyard Used Lessons Learned from Ford
Air Force Magazine : Lockheed Gets $328 Million Award for F-35 Components
New York Times : ISIS Is Losing Afghan Territory. That Means Little for Its Victims.
Calendar
MONDAY | DECEMBER 2
9 a.m. Louisville, Kentucky — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers remarks at the University of Louisville as part of the McConnell Center’s Distinguished Speaker Series. Live streamed on www.state.gov and www.mcconnellcenter.org .
9:15 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference call previewing the NATO Leaders Summit, with Heather Conley, director of the CSIS Europe Program; and Rachel Ellehuus, deputy director of the CSIS Europe Program. RSVP to aschwartz@csis.org
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on "Russian Defense Expenditure and Military Modernization,” with Richard Connolly, associate fellow in the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Program; Michael Kofman, director of the CNA Corporation's Russia Studies Program; and Jeffrey Mankoff, deputy director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program. http://www.csis.org
11:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute and University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland discussion on "U.S. Nuclear Policy Toward China,” with Laura Holgate, vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative; Richard Weitz, director of the Hudson Center for Political-Military Analysis; Nancy Gallagher, director of CISSM; and Jonas Siegel, associate director of CISSM. https://cissm.umd.edu/events/cissm-special-event
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Stimson Center discussion with Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Christopher Ford. https://www.stimson.org/content/conversation
TUESDAY | DECEMBER 3
Grove Hotel, Hertfordshire, London — The United Kingdom host NATO heads of state and government at its “Leaders Meeting,” chaired by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The event begins in the evening at Buckingham Palace and continues Wednesday, Dec. 4. https://www.nato.int
8:30 a.m. 615 H St. N.W. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce Space Summit with, Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Mike Griffin; FCC Chairman Ajit Pai; FAA Administrator Stephen Dickson; NASA Deputy Administrator James Morhard; Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett; Lt. Gen. David Thompson, vice commander of Air Force Space Command; and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. https://www.uschamber.com/event/launch-the-space-economy
9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Arl. — Air Force Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion on "Moving Toward the Air Force We Need? Assessing Air Force Budget Trends,” with retired Air Force Col. Carl Rehberg, nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; and retired Air Force Col. Mark Gunzinger, director of future aerospace concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute. http://events.r20.constantcontact.com
12 p.m. 1150 22nd St. N.W. — Women's Foreign Policy Group “Celebrating Women Leaders Luncheon,” with former national security adviser Susan Rice; former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Susan Gordon; former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs Andrea Thompson; Susan Page, Washington bureau chief for USA Today; and Elisabeth Bumiller, Washington bureau chief for the New York Times. https://www.wfpg.org/sponsor
4 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University discussion on "Conflict, Survival and the Ethics of Violence: Personal Narratives of the Wars in Syria and Afghanistan,” with Noah Tucker, research associate in the GWU Central Asia Program http://elliott.gwu.edu
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 4
8:45 a.m. 701 North Fairfax St., Alexandria — Defense Strategies Institute Space Resiliency Summit," with John Hill, principal director for space policy in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Lt. Gen. David Thompson, vice commander of Air Force Space Command; Maj. Gen. Clinton Crosier, director of the Air Force Space Force Planning Task Force; 701 North Fairfax Street, Alexandria, Va. http://space.dsigroup.org
10:30 a.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — SETA Foundation discussion on "What's Happening in Iran?: Popular Protests and the U.S. Policy,” with Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council's Future of Iran Initiative; Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute; Sina Toossi, senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council; and Kadir Ustun, executive director of SETA. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/whats-happening-in-iran
11:30 a.m. CVC-268, U.S. Capitol — Atlantic Council discussion on "U.S. Strategic Interests in Ukraine,” with Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.; Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.; Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio; Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa.; and Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/us-strategic-interests-in-ukraine/
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 5
8:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on "Restoring Civil-Military Relations,” with House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash.; and Mackenzie Eaglen, resident fellow at AEI. Livestream at http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream
8:45 a.m. 701 N Fairfax St., Alexandria -— Defense Strategies Institute holds its 2019 Space Resiliency Summit,” with Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency; and Air Force Col. Eric Felt, director of the Air Force Research Laboratory's Space Vehicles Directorate. http://space.dsigroup.org
9:30 a.m. 779 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on "NATO, Transatlantic Security, and the Future of Arms Control,” with former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller; and former Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, president of CEIP http://carnegieendowment.org/
12 p.m. 1800 K St., N.W. — Korea Economic Institute of America discussion on "Shifting the Burden: The U.S.-Korea Alliance Amid Washington's New Approach to Military Cost-Sharing,” with former South Korean Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Song Min-soon; former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens, president and CEO of KEI; retired Army Gen. Walter "Skip" Sharp, former commander of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces Korea; James Kim, senior research fellow in the Asan Institute for Policy Studies' Center for Public Opinion Research; and Kyle Ferrier, fellow and academic affairs director at KEI. http://www.keia.org/event/shifting-burden
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 6
8:30 a.m. 1624 Crescent Pl. N.W. — Meridian International Center, the University of Michigan's Weiser Diplomacy Center and the National Security Policy Center forum on defense and diplomacy in Afghanistan, with Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas; Lisa Curtis, senior director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council; Afghan Ambassador to the United States Roya Rahmani; former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Anne Patterson; retired Army Gen. John Nicholson, former commander of the Resolute Support Mission; Javid Ali, policymaker in residence at the University of Michigan's Ford School of Public Policy and former senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council; Laurel Miller, director of the Crisis Group's Asia Program and former acting special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the State Department; Peter Bergen, national security analyst at CNN; Melanne Verveer, executive director of the Georgetown University Institute for Women, Peace and Security; and Stuart Holliday, president and CEO of the Meridian International Center
12 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies forum on "The Crisis that Has Defied Five Presidents: Covering the North Korean Nuclear Program for Three Decades,” with David Sanger, national security correspondent for the New York Times; and Yonho Kim, associate director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies http://elliott.gwu.edu
12:15 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — The American Security Project discussion on "A New American Message: A Discussion on U.S. Rhetoric,” with former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel; Mohamed Younis, editor-in-chief of Gallup News; Dokhi Fassihian, executive director of Reporters Without Borders; and Matthew Wallin, director of research on public diplomacy and strategic communications at ASP. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 13
9 a.m. 1301 K St. N.W. — Washington Post Live conversation with former Defense Secretary retired Gen. Jim Mattis with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Americans need to know that 99.9 percent of our uniformed members always have, always are and always will make the right decision. Our allies need to know that we remain a force for good, and to please bear with us as we move through this moment in time.”
Fired Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, taking President Trump to task for his involvement in the case of Navy SEAL Edward Gallagher in a Washington Post op-ed.
