TESTING THE LIMITS: With the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty now a relic of Cold War history, the U.S. is moving closer to deploying a new short-range missile variant that would match a land-based missile in Russia’s inventory and begin to catch up to China’s vastly larger short and medium arsenal of ground-launched missiles.
The Pentagon announced the successful test of a “prototype conventionally-configured ground-launched ballistic missile,” from Vandenberg Air Force Base, at 8:30 a.m. California time, and released video of the test missile taking off from a static launch stand before plunging into open ocean after more than 300 miles downrange.
“Data collected and lessons learned from this test will inform the Department of Defense's development of future intermediate-range capabilities,” the Pentagon said.
THE BACKGROUND: The U.S. withdrew from the landmark arms control treaty in August after Russia ignored years of complaints from the U.S. dating back to the Obama administration that Moscow was flagrantly violating the agreement with the deployment of its SSC-8 ground-launched, intermediate-range cruise missile.
The INF Treaty , signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev at the height of the Cold War, banned land-based missiles with a range of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310–3,417 miles).
“Russia is solely responsible for the treaty’s demise,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in August, announcing the final withdrawal . “Dating back to at least the mid-2000s, Russia developed, produced, flight tested, and has now fielded multiple battalions of its noncompliant missile.”
CHINA, THE REAL THREAT: The INF treaty constrained the U.S. and Russia from developing land based missiles to complement sea and air launched versions, but not China. Beijing was never a party to the agreement and consequently has amassed an arsenal of short and medium-range missiles in recent years, becoming the global leader in developing and deploying the weapons.
“China is developing a new generation of mobile missiles, with warheads consisting of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) and penetration aids, intended to ensure the viability of its strategic deterrent in the face of continued advances in U.S. and, to a lesser extent, Russian strategic ISR, precision strike, and missile defense capabilities,” said a report issued in May by the Defense Intelligence Agency.
EUROPEAN CONCERNS: America’s NATO allies are worried that deployment of new U.S.land-based mobile missiles, which are still years away from being road-ready, would be destabilizing, and Congress added language the defense policy bill that just passed the House barring deploying the weapons before 2024.
“The conference agreement prohibits the procurement and deployment of new ground launched INF-range missiles and requires information on the analysis of alternatives to such new missiles, basing options and foreign countries consulted including NATO,” according to a summary of the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act provided by the House and Senate Armed Services Committee.
Asked about it yesterday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said, “Once we develop intermediate-range missiles and if my commanders require them, then we will work closely and consult closely with our allies in Europe, Asia and elsewhere with regards to any possible deployments.”
N. KOREA, WHY CAN’T WE? News of the American missile test came the same day an unnamed spokesman for North Korea’s foreign ministry railed against Washington for conducting tests that are off limits for Pyongyang.
“Such claim that they are entitled to launch ICBMs any time and we are not allowed to conduct the tests done by any other countries just sheds light on the nature of the bandit-like U.S. which seeks to disarm us completely,” said the statement reported by the state-run Korean Central New Agency, according to an English translation .
“If bolstering of military capabilities for self-defense should be termed an act of destroying global peace and security, there comes the conclusion that all the steps taken by other countries for bolstering up their defense capabilities should be taken issue with,” the spokesman said.
At the Pentagon, Rear Adm. William Byrne, vice director of the joint staff, told reporters at a briefing, “I think that the United Nations Security Council has made a decision on that,” referring to numerous U.N. resolutions that demand North Korea refrain from further nuclear or missile tests and suspend all ballistic missile activities.
SHUTDOWN AVERTED: The expected passage of the FY 2020 NDAA by the Senate and signing by the President next week solves only half of the Pentagon’s funding problem, noted chief spokesman Jonathan Hoffman yesterday. The defense policy bill provides the authority to spend money, but doesn’t actually appropriate the funds.
“And although the NDAA has been passed, without a budget we cannot implement its changes. We cannot implement Space Force, we cannot give raises to troops, we cannot begin new programs,” he said .
But last night Congressional negotiators announced a tentative agreement on an almost $1.4 trillion government-wide spending bill that would prevent a federal shutdown and end the Continuing Resolution that keeps the Pentagon spending at last year’s level.
“Details of the agreement were not announced and processing the sweeping measure is sure to take a few days,” reported the AP . “But it would award President Donald Trump with $1.4 billion in additional money for the U.S.-Mexico border wall while giving the Democrats who control the House a number of their priorities such as expanded Head Start and early childhood education.”
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating ). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense .
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary Esper is in New York City this morning, taking part in a discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations on "U.S. relations with China and Russia, implementation of the National Defense Strategy and modernization of the U.S. military." The event will be streamed live here at 10:15 a.m.
Later Esper is scheduled to visit a recruiting center and participate in a luncheon with the Business Executives for National Security, before heading to Philadelphia to attend Saturday’s 120th Army-Navy game.
‘VENOMS AND VIPERS’ TO CZECH REPUBLIC: Esper met at the Pentagon yesterday with Czech Republic Defense Minister Lubomír Metnar, and the two finalized a deal in which the NATO ally will purchase 12 helicopters from Bell Textron Inc . headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Under the deal, the Czech Republic will buy eight Bell UH-1Y Venom utility helicopters and four Bell AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters, for about $650 million.
Esper called the sale a "historic moment," noting it is the country’s largest military purchase from the U.S. and is an important step as the Czech Republic moves to replace aging Russian helicopters with aircraft that are compatible with NATO equipment.
You can see video of the Viper here .
TOP DoD CHINA EXPERT QUITS: The Pentagon’s senior Asia policy expert is leaving after two years in the job, amid reports of friction over China policy.
At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, Hoffman confirmed that Randy Schriver, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, was stepping down, but attributed the departure the demands of the job, and the strain it put on Shriver’s personal life.
“He has a young family, has been here for two years in a very intense role,” Hoffman told reporters. “It requires a significant amount of international travel and, as you guys know, going back and forth to Mongolia, Japan, Korea, Australia, China on a near-biweekly basis.”
“It takes a toll on a family, and so Randy is looking to go on to another position,” he said adding, “His area of expertise in the Indo-Pacific region is unmatched in the department.”
CONFINED TO QUARTERS: While the FBI continues to investigate the shooting at the Pensacola Naval Air Station in Florida, a dozen Saudi Arabian students who were acquaintances of the shooter have been ordered by their Saudi commander to be restricted to quarters.
“The students are under direction by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to cooperate with the investigation, which they are doing,” the Pentagon said in a statement. “The students have access to classroom instruction, food, medical staff, a U.S. Military Imam, and their commanding officer.”
The week the Pentagon suspended all operational training for approximately 850 Saudi students in the U.S. as it conducts security review of all foreign military students training here.
The Dec. 6 attack by Saudi aviation student Ahmed Mohammed al-Shamrani killed three U.S. sailors and wounded eight people before the 21-year-old lieutenant was shot dead by a Florida sheriff's deputy.
No new foreign military students will be allowed into the U.S. until new screening procedures are in place, said Hoffman.
CROCKER: AFGHANISTAN NOT VIETNAM: Ryan Crocker, who was the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan from 2011-2012, has an op-ed in the Washington Post, in which he defends the U.S. record in Afghanistan and argues America’s longest war is not another Vietnam.
Crocker is responding to the publication of more than 2,000 pages of interviews conducted by the Pentagon’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, obtained by the Washington Post under FOIA, and dubbed “The Afghanistan Papers: A Secret History of the War,” by the newspaper.
“From the headlines, a reader could not be blamed for thinking that Afghanistan is a wall-to-wall disaster for the United States, another Vietnam about which we must admit defeat and get out. Yet, for anyone who has been paying close attention, there are a few surprises here,” Crocker writes. “I don’t think I gilded many lilies in talking about Afghanistan, whether in public comments or during my interviews with SIGAR.”
Crocker argues it was not a mistake for the U.S. to embark on nation-building in a country with no institutions or traditional of central government.
In 2002, he says “There were 900,000 Afghan children in school, all of them boys. One of the first things we did after the fall of the Taliban was to open schools for girls … When I left Afghanistan as ambassador in 2012, 8 million Afghan kids were in school, a third of them girls. Does that sound like a disaster?”
PAY ALLOWANCES: The Pentagon has released the 2020 rates for basic allowance for housing, basic allowance for subsistence, and basic pay, that are scheduled to go into effect on New Year’s Day.
Basic Allowance for Housing rates will increase an average of 2.8%, Basic Allowance for Subsistence rates will increase 0.9%, and Basic Pay will increase 3.1% over the entire force.
More details can be found here .
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: 'A life-saving process': New visas will help rescue Afghans who put their lives on the line for US troops
Washington Post : Pentagon inspector general to review $400 million border wall contract given to firm Trump favored
Military Times : Are Afghan Forces Beating The Taliban In 2019? The Pentagon Won’t Say.
Military.com : The Marines and Army Are Developing Longer-Range Rockets. Congress Wants Details
SpaceNews : Space Force Proponents in Congress Warn Air Force: ‘We Will Watch You Like a Hawk’
Defense News : Congress May Have Given Air Force Exit Door for Light Attack Program
Air Force Magazine : Authorizers Make Few Changes to USAF Nuclear Programs
New York Times : Iran Confirms It Suffered Cyberattack, Which It Labels State-Sponsored
USNI News : Russia’s Only Aircraft Carrier Burning After Welding Mishap, At Least 1 Dead
Wall Street Journal : Senate Confirms New U.S. Envoy to Russia, John Sullivan had been Deputy Secretary of State; Stephen Biegun slated to succeed him in that post
Reuters : U.S. And 'Like-Minded' Partners Will Keep Security In Asia: Admiral
Task & Purpose : An Army colonel's alleged abuse saddled his wife with ongoing medical needs. Escaping him could bring that care to a screeching halt.
Washington Post : Report Finds Harassment By Pentagon Ex-Official
Air Force Magazine : Lawmakers Suggest Sensor Fusion, AI for ABMS
AP : Boeing’s crew capsule declared ready for 1st space flight
Calendar
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 13
8:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. — Air Force Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Space Power Breakfast Series with Air Force Lt. Gen. John Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center at Air Force Space Command. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/
9 a.m. 1301 K St. N.W. — Washington Post Live conversation with former Defense Secretary retired Gen. Jim Mattis with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. https://www.washingtonpost.com/post-live
10:15 a.m. 58 East 68th Street, New York, N.Y — Council on Foreign Relations discussion with Defense Secretary Mark Esper on "U.S. relations with China and Russia, implementation of the National Defense Strategy and modernization of the U.S. military." Livestream at https://www.cfr.org/event
11:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — The Hudson Institute discussion on "U.S. Naval Surveillance in the Era of Great Power Competition," with Bryan McGrath, managing director of the FerryBridge Group; David Larter, naval warfare reporter at Defense News; and Seth Cropsey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. https://www.hudson.org/events
11:30 a.m. 1800 M St. N.W. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies releases new report “Maximum Pressure 2.0: How to turn the tables on North Korea,” with Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute; David Maxwell, former planner with the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command and FDD senior fellow; Jung Pak, Brookings Institute; and Samantha Ravich, former deputy national security advisor to the Vice President and chairman of FDD's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation. FDD’s Brad Bowman moderates. https://www.fdd.org/analysis
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The hard truth here is that when major resources flow into a country without institutions, rule of law or accountability mechanisms, corruption is virtually guaranteed. The solution? Slow the flow of resources to a level where controls are possible. But that is difficult, too.”
Former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker, in an op-ed, responding the the Washington Post’s publication of “The Afghanistan Papers.”
