Two important predictions on the future of state colleges and universities appeared in January. Moody’s Investors Service, known for credit ratings of borrowers, investments and government entities, released its “2011 Outlook for U.S. Higher Education,” and Illinois State University’s Center for the Study of Educational Policy issued a report on state education funding. The outlook is grim by both accounts. Moody’s pronounced a negative outlook for the “large majority of rated universities” adversely affected by “tuition pricing and state funding threats.” It’s not hard to see where that negative outlook came from when you look at state-by-state analyses in both reports. The Illinois report reveals that even though overall state appropriations have decreased only 2 percent, on average, in the past two years, that reduction coupled with increasing enrollments affects the future prospects of schools in nearly two-thirds of our states.

Stimulus funding has postponed some deep cuts, but that’s due to run out at the end of this year, and students — pinched by double-digit tuition increases at many schools — will continue to bear the brunt of the budget crisis. This plays out in expected and unexpected ways.