‘WE WILL FIGHT’: On Day 55 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the critical battle for control of the eastern Donbas region has begun, with reconstituted Russian forces beginning to launch attacks along a long 300-mile front.
“It can now be stated that Russian troops have begun the battle for Donbas, for which they have been preparing for a long time. A very large part of the entire Russian army is now focused on this offensive,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address. “No matter how many Russian soldiers are driven there, we will fight. We will defend ourselves. We will do it daily. We will not give up anything Ukrainian, and we do not need what’s not ours.”
“The main efforts of the enemy are focused on breaking through the defense of Ukrainian troops in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, as well as establishing full control over the city of Mariupol,” said the Ukrainian Defense Ministry in a statement.
ZELENSKY DECLARES BATTLE FOR DONBAS HAS BEGUN
THE BIG OFFENSIVE STILL TO COME: At the Pentagon, spokesman John Kirby was careful not to contradict the Ukrainian president but indicated major combat operations have not yet begun in the east. “I’m certainly in no position to dispute what the Ukrainians are seeing on the ground,” he said, noting, as he often does, that “there have been active operations going on in the Donbas since the beginning of this invasion, in fact, for the last eight years.”
“We’re not disputing that there’s … combat going on in the Donbas. What we’re saying is, we still consider what we’re seeing to be a piece of shaping operations,” Kirby said. “We have seen the Russians continue to flow in enablers, capabilities that will help them fight in the Donbas going forward, that’s artillery, rotary aviation, helicopter support, command and control enablers.”
“Our assessment is that part of the reason we’re talking about shaping operations in the Donbas is because the Russians are trying to learn from their mistakes,” Kirby said. “We still assess that on many levels in many ways, they still haven’t figured out logistics and sustainment.”
But Kirby says by concentrating their forces in a smaller area closer to home, some of their supply problems may be fixed. “They won’t have as far to go in the Donbas to reinforce, resupply, refuel their forces in the Donbas because they have a long border with that part of Ukraine.”
RUSSIA STILL HAS ‘VAST MAJORITY’ OF COMBAT POWER AVAILABLE AS INVASION CONTINUES
ISW: RUSSIAN FORCES ‘PATCHED UP’ WITH ‘DISASTROUSLY LOW MORALE’: “Russian forces conducted large-scale assaults focused on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka with heavy artillery support,” according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, which reports that so far the Russians have “not secured any major territorial gains.”
The Washington-based think tank says the actual combat capability of the retooled Russian units is “a fraction” of what it is on paper. “Russian forces withdrawn from around Kyiv and going back to fight in Donbas have, at best, been patched up and filled out with soldiers from other damaged units, and the Russian military has few, if any, cohesive units not previously deployed to Ukraine to funnel into new operations,” the analysis concludes.
“Frequent reports of disastrously low Russian morale and continuing logistics challenges indicate the effective combat power of Russian units in eastern Ukraine is a fraction of their on-paper strength in numbers of battalion tactical groups.”
“The Russian offensive in the east is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian offensives, but Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains,” the ISW predicts, noting that in their haste to secure some measure of success, Russian commanders failed to take “the operational pause that was likely necessary to reconstitute and properly integrate damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine into operations in eastern Ukraine.”
DONBAS GOVERNOR TELLS LOCALS TO EVACUATE OR BE KILLED, BUT NO CORRIDORS OPEN
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas are traveling to Panama to co-host the Ministerial Conference on Migration and Protection today and tomorrow.
ALSO TODAY: Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman travels to Brussels, Belgium, to lead the U.S. delegation for the third high-level meeting of the U.S.-EU Dialogue on China on Thursday and the U.S.-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific on Friday.
Sherman will also meet with NATO allies and EU partners “to discuss our continued close coordination on Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine and other global issues,” according to the State Department. On Thursday, Sherman will give remarks and participate in a moderated discussion at an event hosted by the Friends of Europe think tank on U.S.-European relations.
MARIUPOL’S LAST REDOUBT: While the Russians have the strategic southern port of Mariupol surrounded, there are still Ukrainian fighters and at least 1,000 civilians holed up in the sprawling Azovstal steel plant complex that covers more than four square miles of the city.
The complex has come under constant Russian bombardment, and there has been intense fighting around its perimeter, but the last redoubt of Ukrainian defenders has yet to give up. Russia has reportedly begun dropping bunker-buster bombs on buildings at the complex, trying to get at the tunnels where both fighters and civilians are sheltering.
Video showed families and children in the underground parts of the plant and smoke rising above the complex.
“The Russians have put a lot of effort into Mariupol — airstrikes, more than 10 battalion tactical groups now dedicated to that mission of taking Mariupol — and they have made it bloody, they have made it costly for the Ukrainians, without question,” said Kirby on MSNBC.
“The Ukrainians continue to fight hard for that city. They know how important it is to the Russian efforts … and they’re fighting hard for it. And I think it would be foolhardy to try to guess, with any specificity, how long the fighting is going to go on in Mariupol,” he said. “I think anybody that puts an over/under on this thing or gives you a specific projection would be risking their credibility.”
Russia needs to secure Mariupol to free up troops for its Donbas offensive and to open a land bridge between Russia and Crimea.
1,000 CIVILIANS HIDING UNDER STEEL PLANT IN MARIUPOL WITH UKRAINIAN TROOPS: REPORTS
RUSSIA: A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM? One of the things Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants the U.S. to do to tighten the screws on Russian President Vladimir Putin is to declare Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism,” which would make it harder for Russia to do business with other countries, freeze more Russian assets, and further limit imports and exports.
“We are going to look at all potential options — options that are available to us under the law, options that would be effective in holding Russia to account — and if a tool is available and effective, we won’t hesitate to use it,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price at yesterday’s briefing.
Zelensky’s request reportedly came during his recent phone call with President Joe Biden.
ASAT TEST BAN: In a speech at Vandenberg Air Force base last night, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that the Biden administration will enact a self-imposed ban on anti-satellite missile testing to prevent the propagation of dangerous space debris.
“I am pleased to announce that as of today, the United States commits not to conduct destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile testing. Simply put: These tests are dangerous, and we will not conduct them,” Harris said.
Both Russia and China have tested anti-satellite weapons by destroying one of their own satellites, Russia last November and China in 2007.
“These tests, to be sure, are reckless, and they are irresponsible. These tests also put in danger so much of what we do in space,” Harris said.
According to the 18th Space Defense Squadron, more than 1,600 pieces of debris were generated from the Russian test, while there are 2,800 pieces of debris still in space from China’s test 15 years ago.
“A piece of space debris the size of a basketball, which travels at thousands of miles per hour, would destroy a satellite,” Harris said. “Even a piece of debris as small as a grain of sand could cause serious damage.”
ROGERS: ASAT BAN ‘NAIVE’: The announcement didn’t sit well with Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers, lead Republican on the House Armed Services Committee.
“This unilateral decision mistakes activity for achievement. It does nothing to deter our adversaries in an escalating war fighting domain. In fact, I’m worried it will have the opposite effect,” Rogers said in a statement released last night.
“Both the Russians and the CCP have demonstrated their anti-satellite capabilities — it would be naive to think they don’t intend to use them against our assets,” he said. “I want answers from the administration on what exactly is being done to protect our national security. Simply declaring what they won’t do isn’t deterrence.”
NOT REALLY NEWS: These days, when almost everyone is contracting COVID-19, the reports that fully-vaccinated and boosted people are testing positive and suffering mild systems is barely news. Yesterday, the Army reported that Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville — who is fully vaccinated and has received two boosters — tested positive on Sunday.
“He is experiencing very mild symptoms similar to seasonal allergies and is currently working remotely while adhering to all CDC protocols,” according to an Army statement.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Zelensky declares battle for Donbas has begun
Washington Examiner: Donbas governor tells locals to evacuate or be killed, but no corridors open
Washington Examiner: Russia has increased its troop presence in eastern and southern Ukraine: Pentagon
Washington Examiner: Russia still has ‘vast majority’ of combat power available as invasion continues
Washington Examiner: 1,000 civilians hiding under steel plant in Mariupol with Ukrainian troops: Reports
Washington Examiner: ‘Putin will only stop when we stop him.’ Close Biden ally pushes for US troops in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: White House ‘respectfully’ disagrees with allied senator on US troops to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Ukraine estimates Russian troops killed north of 20,000
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian military used cluster munitions to retake city: Report
Washington Examiner: MSNBC analyst Malcolm Nance reveals he joined fight in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russian official claims Ukraine shelled village near border
Washington Examiner: US military updates findings on Syria attack
USNI News: Russia Could Bring Marines To Mariupol In Another Amphibious Assault
AP: In Iran, Russia’s war on Ukraine is a political flash point
New York Times: Russian Attack On Lviv Shakes Sense Of Security In A Relatively Safe City.
Stars and Stripes: US troops to train Ukrainian forces on howitzers in coming days
Defense News: Pentagon, Industry Wrestle With How To Boost Weapons Production For Ukraine
CQ Roll Call: New Requests Bring Military’s ‘Unfunded Priorities’ Above $21 Billion
Defense Daily: Navy Killing Low-Yield Nuclear SLCM Over Cost Concerns
Bloomberg: Another Pentagon Official Exits, Saying U.S. Is At Risk Of Losing Tech Edge
Bloomberg: Pentagon Contractor Accused of Overcharges Is Pursued by Lawmakers
Navy Times: Three USS George Washington sailors have died in the past nine days
New York Times: Justices Rule Against Air Force Officer Who Refused Shot
Maritime Executive: In a First, U.S. Navy Shoots Down Cruise Missile With a Laser System
Air Force Times: Two-star Air Force general faces judge, not jury, in sexual assault trial
The Drive: Pentagon Posts Rare Photo Of Navy SEAL-Laden Special Ops Sea Base
The Drive: This Man Owns The World’s Most Advanced Private Air Force After Buying 46 F/A-18 Hornets
Air Force Magazine: U.S. Military Posture Changes Needed in Europe, Pentagon Says
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Fields a New Rifle for Airmen Across Missions
Air Force Magazine: IG Report: USAF, Army Must Do More to Prepare Arctic Bases for Climate Change
Air Force Magazine: Last Goblet Turned Over for Dick Cole and His Comrades on 80th Anniversary of Tokyo Raid
19fortyfive.com: Russia vs. Ukraine in the Battle for Mariupol: Who Wins?
19fortyfive.com: Mariupol: Putin Could Soon Have His First Big Ukraine War Victory
19fortyfive.com: The B-52 Bomber Is 70 Years Old. How Is It Still Flying?
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Is Negotiating with Putin even possible at this point?
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s New Role in Ukraine
Calendar
TUESDAY | APRIL 19
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation webinar: “Building Alliances and Competing with China: The Imperative for UAV Export Reforms,” with author Heather Penney, senior resident fellow, Mitchell Institute; and Paul Scharre, vice president and director of studies, Center for a New American Security https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion: “Joint All-Domain Command and Control: Bringing the DOD’s innovative command and control to life,” with James Adams, deputy director for requirements and capability development at the Joint Staff J8; Scott Stapp, Northrop Grumman CTO; Steve Walker, Lockheed Martin CTO; and John Ferrari, AEI nonresident senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/joint-all-domain-command-and-control
9 a.m. — American Society of International Law virtual discussion: “Displacement in and from Ukraine: Risks, Responses, and Legal Dimensions,” with Jean-Pierre Gauci, senior fellow at the British Institute of International and Comparative Law ; Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea Anton Korynevych; Maja Lysienia, Polish national expert at the European Council on Refugees and Exiles; Meltem Ineli-Ciger, assistant professor at Suleyman Demirel University; Noemi Magugliani, research fellow at BIICL; Ukrainian Supreme Court Judge Olena Kibenko; and Yulia Ioffe, lecturer in international law at University College London https://www.asil.org/event/displacement-and-ukraine-risks
9 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Germany and the Impact of the War in Ukraine,” with Tobias Lindner, member of the German Bundestag; and Hope Harrison, professor of history and international affairs at GWU https://calendar.gwu.edu/germany-and-impact-war-ukraine
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “How the Chinese Public Views Russia’s War in Ukraine,” with Michael Cerny, associate editor at the Carter Center; Yawei Liu, senior adviser for China Focus at the Carter Center; Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; and Jude Blanchette, chair in China studies at CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/how-chinese-public-views-russias-war-ukraine
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Russia’s war on Ukraine and its implications for France’s foreign policy and Franco-American relations.” with French Ambassador to the United States Philippe Etienne on https://www.hudson.org/events/2097-virtual-event
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual forum: “Electrifying the Future Fleet,” with Rear Adm. Lorin Selby, chief of naval research at the Office of Naval Research; and retired Army Lt. Gen. Jack Klimp, president and CEO of the Navy-Marine Corps Relief Society https://events.govexec.stcom/electrifying-future-fleet/
2 p.m. 14th and F Sts. N.W. — National Press Club Newsmaker Program with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall on “the Air Force FY2023 budget request and his vision for the department’s transformation to face future threats,” https://www.press.org/events/npc-newsmaker
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 20
TBA — President Joe Biden meets with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleesn Hicks, all eight members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and all U.S. combatant commanders in the Cabinet Room. At night, Biden and the First Lady host a dinner for everyone and their spouses in the Blue Room.
8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group’s Federal Computer Week virtual workshop: “Digital Revolution,” with Steve Wallace, systems innovation specialist at the Defense Information Systems Agency’s Emerging Technologies Directorate https://events.fcw.com/digital-revolution
8:45 a.m. 2500 Calvert St. N.W. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Cyber Mission Summit, with Nancy Kriedler, director for cybersecurity and information assurance in the Office of the Army CIO for Command, Control, Communications, Cyber Operations and Networks; Air Force Brig. Gen. Matteo Martemucci, director of intelligence at the U.S. Cyber Command; and Holly Baroody, deputy to the commander at the Cyber National Mission Force https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/CybersecurityTechSummit
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Tracking Developments in Counterspace Weapons,” with Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; Victoria Samson, Washington office director at the Secure World Foundation; and Michael Mineiro, vice president of legal, regulatory, and government affairs at HawkEye 360, Inc. https://www.csis.org/events/tracking-developments-counterspace-weapons
9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual discussion: “Fiscal Year 2023 Department of Defense Science and Technology Budget Priorities,” with Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Research and Technology William Nelson; Deputy Assistant Air Force Secretary for Science, Technology and Engineering Kristen Baldwin; and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Director Stephanie Tompkins https://www.ndia.org/events
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, “Following the Crypto: Using Blockchain Analysis to Assess the Strengths and Vulnerabilities of North Korean Hackers,” with Eric Penton-Voak, coordinator at the UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Nick Carlsen, blockchain intelligence analyst at TRM Labs; Jason Bartlett, research associate at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program; and Yaya Fanusie, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-following-the-crypto
10 a.m. — The SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. virtual discussion: “NATO’s Response and the U.S. Policy on Ukraine,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Mark Katz, professor at George Mason University’s School of Policy and Government; Kilic Kanat, SETA research director; and Kadir Ustun, SETA executive director https://tinyurl.com/444yux92
10 a.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe virtual briefing: “Diverse Voices Reporting From Ukraine,” with Oz Katerji, freelance conflict journalist; Asami Terajima, journalist at the Kyiv Independent; and Olga Tokariuk, independent journalist based in Ukraine and non-resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://ushr.webex.com/webappng/sites/ushr/meeting/register
10:30 a.m. — Palo Alto Networks Joint Service Academy Cybersecurity Summit: “The Role of Cyber in Hybrid Warfare and Great Power Competition/Conflict,” with Retired Lt. Gen. B.J. Shwedo, director, U.S. Air Force Academy Institute for Future Conflict; Bruce Byrd, executive vice president and general counsel; Retired Vice Adm. T.J .White, former commander, U.S. Fleet Cyber Command and commander, U.S. Tenth Fleet and member of Palo Alto Networks Public Sector Council; Lt. Gen. Stephen Fogarty, commanding general, U.S. Army Cyber Command; Rear Adm. Michael Ryan, commander, U.S. Coast Guard Cyber Command; Russ Meade, executive director, U.S. Marine Forces Cyberspace Command; Vice Adm. Ross Myers, commander, U.S. Fleet Cyber Command and commander, U.S. Tenth Fleet; Lt. Gen. Charles Moore, deputy commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Maj. Gen. William Hartman, commander, Cyber National Mission Force; Lt. General Robert Skinner , director Defense Information Systems Agency and the commander Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network https://register.paloaltonetworks.com/jsacyber
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual discussion on the role of the Total Army in supporting the U.S. Central Command and U.S. Army Central objectives in the Middle East, with Lt. Gen. Ronald Clark, commanding general of U.S. Army Central; and retired Lt. Gen. Leslie Smith, former inspector general of the Army https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report
12 p.m. — National Economists Club luncheon discussion with the Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. https://www.economicclub.org/events/he-marek-magierowski
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “One-Size-Fits-None: Overhauling Joint All-Domain Command and Control to Deliver Customized Solutions to the U.S. Military,” with Mark Lewis, director of the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies Institute; James Steward, department chief scientist for spectrum warfare systems at the Naval Surface Warfare Center’s Crane Division; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2104-virtual-event
THURSDAY | APRIL 21
5 a.m. — International Energy Agency virtual briefing on “how to save money, reduce reliance on Russian energy, support Ukraine and help the planet,” with European Commission Director-General for Energy Ditte Juul Jorgensen; and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol https://ieaorg.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion on “the role of grand strategy in advancing U.S. interests, today’s national security challenges, and a vision for the foreign policy of the next president,” with Matt Kroenig, professor at Georgetown University and deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum: with Peter Pry, executive director of Task Force on National and Homeland Security; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Defense One virtual forum on “Artificial Intelligence,” with Matt Turek, information innovation office program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, delivers remarks focusing on AI and national security; and Brett Vaughan, chief AI officer at the Navy https://events.nextgov.com/genius-machines-2022/
FRIDAY | APRIL 22
12:30 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “South Korea’s Presidential Election and Expectations of the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) Alliance,” with Mark Tokola, vice president of the Korean Economic Institute of America; and Celeste Arrington, professor at GWU https://calendar.gwu.edu/south-koreas-presidential-election
2 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Implications of the Conflict in Ukraine on the Middle East Security,” with Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program; Sina Azodi, visiting scholar at the GWU Institute for Middle East Studies; Nicole Grajewski, pre-doctoral research fellow at the Belfer Center’s International Security Program; and Negar Mortazavi, columnist at The Independent https://calendar.gwu.edu/implications-conflict-ukraine-middle-east-security
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“No matter how many Russian soldiers are driven there, we will fight. We will defend ourselves. We will do it daily. We will not give up anything Ukrainian, and we do not need what’s not ours.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his Monday night video address.





