The protests in Iran challenging the repressive Islamist regime present both an opportunity for the Trump administration, as one White House official puts it, and a challenge. The administration is quietly urging European and regional allies to join President Trump in offering support for the demonstrators—an effort that appears to be working somewhat. A more isolated Iran would give the United States the chance to more aggressively enforce the letter and spirit of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal, or even end it all together.
But two deadlines loom next week that complicate the situation for president Trump. The first is the congressionally imposed certification of Iran’s compliance with the deal and its alignment with the national security interests of the nation. In October Trump decertified the deal on the grounds of these national security concerns. The president is likely to decertify again by the January 11 deadline.
More important are a series of deadlines beginning next week to continue waiving nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, which the Obama administration first agreed to as part of the deal. Trump’s national security team had been preparing to reissue those waivers. Doing otherwise, the thinking goes, would give Iran an opening to claim the United States is violating the deal. But the protests, and the Iranian government’s harsh response to them (more than a dozen have died since last Thursday), have changed things.
Will Trump decide not to waive the nuclear sanctions, in part to send a message to Iran over these protests? Will he push to impose new non-nuclear sanctions against, for instance, the Basij force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that is pushing back violently against the protesters? What’s happened across Iran for the past six days has taken the American government by surprise, and it’s not clear from my conversations that the president and his advisers have figured out how they plan to move forward yet.
One More Thing—One administration official making a next step on Iran is Nikki Haley, the ambassador the United Nations who is requesting an emergency convening of the U.N. Security Council to respond to the protests. Holding such a session would be a first step in imposing new sanctions. I’m told Haley spoke on the phone with President Trump on Tuesday morning, though it’s not clear if they discussed her call for the UNSC meeting.
Op-Ed of the Day—From Reuel Marc Gerecht, a WEEKLY STANDARD contributing editor, in the New York Times: “The Worst Thing for Iran’s Protesters? U.S. Silence”
Trump Tweet of the Day
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2018
2018 Watch—Utah senator Orrin Hatch ended an extended period of “will he or won’t he” on Tuesday, when the seven-term Republican announced he would not seek reelection in November. The 83-year-old chairman of the Senate Finance committee helped guide last month’s successful tax bill to passage, and has allied himself with Trump during the president’s first year in office. Publicly, Hatch seemed to be reconsidering his 2012 pledge to retire after 2018 (aided by encouragement from Trump to run for an eighth term), even as he reportedly told friends he was still likely to not seek reelection. Now his departure is official, and even President Trump is expressing, in his own way, his appreciation for Hatch’s career.
So who waits in the wings in deep red Utah to run for the seat? McKay Coppins of the Atlantic reported in October that Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and 2012 GOP presidential candidate who lives in Utah part time, was telling allies he was making campaign preparations. Three Republicans in the know told my colleague Haley Byrd on Tuesday that Romney’s plan is “is definitely to run.”
More tax bill fallout in the form of cash bonuses for employees—this time at Southwest Airlines, which CNBC reports will give “all full-time and part-time employees” $1,000 extra in cash thanks to the corporate rate cut. I wonder if employees can take the bonus in the form of in-flight drink coupons.
No Guardrails in the Age of YouTube—From Vanity Fair’s Richard Lawson on the darkness of the central spirit of the internet:
Song of the Day— “It’s the Same Old Song” by the Four Tops
