Behind every presidential campaign is an army of staff, advisers and consultants, and the Republicans don’t have nearly enough of them to go around.
The proliferation of Republican 2016 contenders — 16 at last count — combined with the dozens of outside groups backing their candidacies has drained the pool of GOP political professionals. Operations that launched early, like the campaign team, super PAC and nonprofit behind former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, snapped up some of the most prominent and respected names in Republican politics, gaining a talent edge over competitors who launched later in the process.
But Bush and other GOP White House candidates who moved early have another problem: There are very few political high-level operatives available for hire, or to contract with, at this juncture should a campaign or super PAC suddenly need to replace a key member of its team or expand sooner than expected. This is particularly the case, Republican insiders say, when it comes to finding experienced fundraisers and digital strategists.
“With so many presidential campaigns and super PACs, the reservoir of experienced national campaign hands cannot fill all the needs. So, some talented, but less tested, folks are getting a chance at the big leagues,” said Henry Barbour, a veteran Republican operative from Mississippi. “It’s a tough place to learn on the job — both for campaign hands and candidates.”
This could pose a challenge to Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Kasich is poised to declare for president on July 21 during a rally on the campus of The Ohio State University (his spokesman confirmed on Tuesday receiving more than 2,000 requests for tickets.) The governor won a resounding re-election victory in 2014 and in his first term helped lead a recovery of an Ohio economy that was suffering the aftershocks of the Great Recession. Not a bad record to run on in 2016.
But Kasich moved much later than the competition to prepare for his presidential bid, a campaign-in-waiting being run by his political organization, “New Day for America.” By the time Kasich decided to pursue the White House, some his trusted consultants and others that might have joined his campaign were committed to other 2016 candidates. That has necessitated reaching outside his circle, which he has done to some degree of success.
Kasich has hired two experienced Republican hands: media maven Fred Davis and John Weaver, a senior adviser to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the GOP nominee in 2008. In New Hampshire, host of the second nominating contest of the 2016 primary, former Sen. John Sununu is backing Kasich. On Tuesday, during a news conference in Washington, Kasich dismissed suggestions that his later launch will make it harder for him to build a successful campaign team.
“I have a very good team of people,” Kasich said. “My core people are still around. And as you may know, our political organization has brought some other people in who are very experienced and very well thought of, and I think we’re fine.”
This isn’t the first election that has seen several presidential candidates run. The 2008 cycle was crowded on both sides of the aisle, and some Republican consultants, at least, were paid, even by current standards, ridiculous amounts of money in retainer fees. The race for the Republican Party’s 2016 nomination is different. The sheer number of GOP contenders in the race, and the percentage of them considered top tier, or, at least, serious, could be unprecedented.
Indeed, it’s not necessarily the volume of candidates that has led to the campaign brain drain, but the fact that so many of them are major players. Top tier and serious candidates tend to attract staff, advisers and consultants of similar stature. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is a great example.
The presidential hopeful sits at 1.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls gauging the sentiment of GOP primary voters, and is not considered top tier. But Jindal is a serious contender, and his top advisers reflect that status. Curt Anderson, who has guided many gubernatorial and Senate candidates to victory in tough races, advises Jindal’s White House campaign. Brad Todd, Anderson’s business partner, runs “Believe Again,” the Jindal super PAC.
That a candidate who is scraping the bottom of the polls is that well staffed is emblematic of how dry the well for Republican professionals has become more than six months before the first primary voters are scheduled to caucus in Iowa next year.
“The talent pool has definitely shrunk with the number of candidates in the race,” said one GOP campaign official, who spoke to the Washington Examiner on condition of anonymity. “Each campaign has to set up two organizations and it has stretched the capacity of operatives and firms.”
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker
