In Georgia, the pattern is reversed. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) holds a 7-point lead in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA). Meanwhile, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms faces a tighter contest with Republican businessman Rick Jackson. The last time a Georgia Democrat won the gubernatorial race was in 1998.

Together, the East Coast races could show whether voters are making individual judgments about candidates rather than simply voting for one party.

Maine tests Democratic coattails

Maine may offer the clearest test of whether a popular gubernatorial candidate can lift a Senate nominee. The state is a particularly intriguing test case, since it’s largely backed Democratic presidential candidates from 1992 on.

The question is whether voters who strongly support Pingree, 49, will also back Troy Jackson, 58, or whether Susan Collins’s personal appeal can persuade Democrats and independents to split their tickets. Collins was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and has beaten back several highly touted and well-funded Democratic challengers over the years. Jackson is a replacement candidate for the original Democratic Senate nominee, Graham Platner, who exited the race after a series of negative news stories about him, including a rape allegation from his former girlfriend, which he denies.

Dave Spencer, a political commentator and host of the Practically Political podcast, said ticket-splitting has become far less common over the past 15 years, particularly in Senate races. That largely coincides with the political rise of President Donald Trump, who won two of the past three White House races.

“In 2018, there were eight Democratic senators in the 25 states Trump had won by 10 points or more,” Spencer told the Washington Examiner. “Today, there are none. Susan Collins in Maine is now the only Republican senator from the 19 states that voted Democratic in each of the last three presidential elections.”

Spencer said Collins, 73, remains an exception because of her long-standing appeal to voters beyond the Republican base.

“In 2020, Biden won Maine by more than 9 points, while Collins won her Senate race by almost the same margin,” he said. “Collins has been able to get voters to split their tickets in a way that very few politicians can anymore.”

Republican strategist Jeff Burton pointed to the same race as evidence.

“That’s an enormous swing between two races on the same ballot,” he said. 

But Natalie Jackson, founder and principal of Centerline Research & Strategy, a public opinion and consulting firm, said Collins makes Maine an imperfect measure of broader voting behavior.

“Maine is a unique case and doesn’t offer any sweeping lessons about coattails,” she said. Collins is “a known entity, and Mainers are comfortable with her as a moderate.”

Georgia offers the reverse test

Georgia presents the opposite dynamic. The state was a red bastion for decades, but from 2021 on, it has been at least a shade of purple. Democrats hold both Senate seats, and in 2020, Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia since 1992. However, the Peach State reverted to GOP form in 2024 when Trump beat Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris there.

In this year’s Senate race, incumbent Ossoff, 39, is running ahead of Mike Collins, 59, while Bottoms, 56, faces a competitive contest against Rick Jackson, 72. That creates the possibility that some voters could support a Democrat for Senate but a Republican for governor.

“Georgia may be the best test of whether voters are willing to split their ticket,” Burton said. “Ossoff is running well ahead of the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, and that tells you voters are looking at these races separately, not simply voting red or blue.”

“I can absolutely see a meaningful number of Georgians voting Republican for governor and Democratic for Senate,” he added. “That’s not ideological inconsistency. That’s voters deciding they like one candidate and don’t like another.”

David Greenberg, a U.S. political and media history professor at Rutgers, agreed that Georgia may be the more revealing case.

“Georgia strikes me as the most likely state to see a split decision,” he told the Washington Examiner.

Greenberg said Ossoff benefits from incumbency, while Bottoms, who was Atlanta’s mayor from 2018 to 2022, is seeking statewide office for the first time.

“If she wins, it’ll be because the winds are blowing in a Democratic direction and she will be the beneficiary of a nationwide trend,” Greenberg said.

Coattails have weakened

Experts broadly agree that strong candidates can help their party but that the effect is limited.

“Coattails exist in the midterms, but candidates have to earn their own votes,” Burton said. “A strong top of the ticket can open the door. They can’t drag everyone through it like a presidential candidate.”

Spencer, the podcast host, said economic conditions, presidential approval, and the national political climate can matter more than any individual candidate.

“A lot of what we’re seeing has more to do with the economy and Trump’s unpopularity than one strong candidate pulling another candidate across the finish line,” Spencer said.

He pointed to Iowa, where Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand and Senate nominee Josh Turek are both performing competitively.

“That has more to do with voters being unhappy with the economy and the party in power than either candidate having coattails,” he said.

Thom Hartmann, a political analyst and nationally syndicated progressive radio host, pointed to Georgia’s 2022 elections. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) won reelection by more than 200,000 votes, while Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker, endorsed by Trump, ran far behind him.

“In other words, separate decisions are not uncommon,” Hartmann told the Washington Examiner.

Candidate brands still matter

Richard McCann, author of There Once Was an Idea Called America: Elitism, Globalism, Radicalism, and Systematic Destruction of American Democracy, said ticket-splitting increasingly depends on how voters perceive individual candidates.

“Ticket-splitting is and will continue to be a major part of electoral politics, but it will be determined by how extreme or moderate particular candidates are rather than by mere party affiliation,” McCann said.

He pointed to 2024, when Trump carried North Carolina by 3 points while Democrat Josh Stein won the gubernatorial race by 15 points. In Arizona, Trump won 52% of the vote while Democrat Ruben Gallego defeated Republican Kari Lake in the Senate race.

“In both instances, voters perceived people like Stein and Gallego as less extreme than their opponents, enabling both to garner Republican voters as well,” McCann said.

Burton, the Republican strategist, said candidates can build identities that transcend their party labels.

“Ticket-splitting usually happens when one candidate gives voters a reason to break their normal partisan habit,” he said. “Sometimes it’s personality. Sometimes it’s a candidate they simply can’t vote for. And sometimes somebody builds an identity strong enough to escape the national party brand.”

He cited Susan Collins, along with Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Don Bacon (R-NE), as examples.

“The question isn’t whether voters know what party you belong to. They obviously do,” Burton said. “The question is whether you can convince them that you’re more than the letter next to your name.”

What to watch

Natalie Jackson, the public opinion and consulting firm founder, said polling gaps between candidates of the same party could provide an early indication of ticket-splitting.

“If we’re in October and most voters know all of the candidates, and polls show a Democrat running for Senate doing better than the Democrat running for governor, that is a clear sign that it might happen,” she said.

Hartmann said more local-level results could provide another clue.

“I’d keep a lookout for county-level divergences between two races on identical ballots,” he said.

DEMOCRATS FROM OPPOSITE SIDES OF PARTY ALL RALLY BEHIND ‘BIG TENT’

Greenberg cautioned against drawing sweeping conclusions from either state.

“I’d say the same for Maine,” he said. “Collins has many loyal constituents, some of whom are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. She won’t have coattails — and neither will Pingree. If Jackson pulls it out, it will be because of a prevailing Democratic current this fall.”

The larger lesson of 2026 may be that party labels remain powerful, but they do not always determine how voters approach high-profile races. If Maine and Georgia produce split outcomes, they could offer an early sign of a more fractured electoral map — one where incumbency, candidate appeal, and local issues can still overcome partisan loyalty.

Barnini Chakraborty (@Barnini) is a senior political reporter at the Washington Examiner.