In the 2012 vice presidential debate, the weight of the entire Obama reelection campaign was on one man: Joe Biden. The Obama campaign desperately needed a win after Obama’s performance against Mitt Romney, which pundits, analysts, and voters agreed was the worst they’d seen from the president. Or as Politico put it, “Obama snoozes and loses.”
In fact, a CNN/Opinion Research poll released after the debate showed 67 percent of viewers thought Romney won, while just 25 percent said the same of President Obama. The Obama campaigned needed to get voters’ minds off of the president’s horrible performance and it all came down to Joe.
The Trump-Clinton debate battle numbers are very similar. CNN put Clinton on top with 63 percent of voters calling her the victor.
Although the numbers are similar, this election cycle is nothing like previous ones.
Donald Trump, a candidate with no elected or government experience, whose resume includes real-estate developer and reality TV star, beat out 16 established candidates in the GOP primary. This occurred in a way that many TV pundits and analysts, including myself, predicted wouldn’t be possible. However, we all have since come to terms with the reality that Trump could possibly be the next leader of the free world. Last week, Trump debated Hillary Clinton — a former U.S. senator, first lady, and secretary of state — and as I wrote in Red Alert Politics, he lost the debate among the political class.
Now, like Obama did in 2012, Trump needs his running mate to show up and put points on the board. The only question is: Will you be watching? Trump and Clinton have largely overshadowed their running mates in many ways. In fact, a recent Fox News poll showed that roughly one-third of voters have no opinion or have never heard of either VP nominee.
In addition, it seems as though the media does not take interest in what either VP candidate says if it doesn’t involve an attack on the top of the opposing ticket. Unlike the last debate between Trump and Clinton, Gov. Mike Pence will bring up every scandal Clinton has ever been near. He will do what Trump didn’t do in the last debate, and prosecute a case against Hillary Clinton that involves phrases like “basket of deplorables,” email scandal, FBI investigation, liar, abuse of women, “basement dwellers,” and much more, I expect. Sen. Tim Kaine is likely to bring up Trump’s tax returns, and perhaps criminal justice reform, an issue that has continued to resurface in the media which millennials and African-Americans care about.
I believe Kaine will also try to force Pence to answer for a case that occurred in his state. The governor declined to pardon Keith Cooper, an Indiana man who was wrongly convicted of armed robbery and attempted murder, and served 10 years of a 40-year sentence. I believe Kaine will try and push a narrative that Pence doesn’t care about people, and highlight the fact that Keith is African-American.
Although this debate is not being billed as the debate of the century like the Trump-Clinton debate, it will be a very substantive debate that I predict will be largely beneficial to the Trump campaign. Those who felt as though Trump didn’t perform well during last week’s debate will take solace in the experienced and strong policy wonk, Mike Pence. For just one night in this election, viewers will be able to tune into an event that will feel very normal and traditional, without the shenanigans we’ve come to expect this election cycle. This is a debate that Mike Pence cannot lose.
