The Iowa caucus will be a month later than previous caucuses in 2008 and 2012, which means that college students have returned to campus from break.
For Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul, that could give them an unexpected, and under-reported, boost in the results.
Bernie Sanders has a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton among college students and millennials, the Christian Science Monitor noted. The Sanders platform focusing on climate change, a free college education, and inequality grabs them, and Sanders has a 53-19 percent lead among college students.
Among Republican millennials, Rand Paul looks to copy his father, according to The Blaze. Rand’s father, Ron, gained 50 percent of the youth vote in the 2012 Iowa caucus, and Rand wants to copy that example. As Red Alert Politics has reported, he has claimed that pollsters aren’t accurately capturing his support from young Americans. He’s bragged that 10,000 students will caucus for him in Iowa; it’s a long shot, but if he can do it, he could pull off an upset.
Marco Rubio has challenged Paul for young Republican support, though. If Rand’s strategy fails and Students for Rubio rises, he might not be able to recover.
Millennials in Iowa might not be enough, however. The Monitor noted that only 22 percent of Iowa caucus-goes were under 30 in the 2008 caucus. Even if students are engaged in elections, it requires organization and dedicated to show up. On that, older generations still rule.
If millennials don’t turn out, or inclement weather lowers the number of caucus-goers, the results could get complicated. Polls have estimated high turnout, and that benefits Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, according to The Washington Post. Polls for primaries and caucuses tend to be less accurate than for national elections, so the results could look very different.
For Paul, Sanders, and Trump, however, it’s a numbers game. The more people who turn out, and the younger they are, the better chance they have for an upset.
