If the primary trends continue, Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination – but winning the general election would be difficult to accomplish.
A lack of support from minority voters could be his downfall, not the youth vote or fundraising.
“If Trump doesn’t start making inroads with minority voters soon it could spell trouble for him in a general election showdown against Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee,” according to Daniel Bush for PBS Newshour.
Among Hispanic voters, Trump is strongly disliked. He is the least popular of Republican candidates, with eight of 10 Hispanic voters holding an unfavorable view of him, according to The Washington Post. The dislike goes deep enough among all voters that Trump trails Hillary Clinton by 3.4 percent and Bernie Sanders by 8 percent, according to poll averages from Real Clear Politics.
Polls, and voter opinion, have time to change. Republicans who declare that they couldn’t support Trump might change their minds when the reality of a Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders presidency seems more real.
The possibility of a Republican loss, even with Donald Trump, might not deter his support. The GOP establishment has struggled to grasp why Trump has gained such support, and it’s unlikely that they will.
The Donald Trump campaign goes beyond an electoral victory. As much as voters would like a Trump presidency, Trump has been the only GOP candidate to respond to the concerns of certain voting blocs.
Trump struggles with minority voters. Though he did the best among Hispanic Republicans in Nevada, only 36 percent of Hispanics nationwide are registered Republicans. Trump could surprise pundits and pull in enough minority voters, despite his racist and xenophobic statements. For some voters, white and otherwise, they might not like that rhetoric, but they won’t dump Trump.
