A new survey of young voters has found them flush with optimism and “sunny” for the future.
Pollster Frank Luntz, partnering with Snapchat, has tried to rebrand millennials as “The Snapchat Generation” in his survey, a blatant marketing ploy, but he found that “hope” gets young voters active in the political system.
For candidates, that means charisma, pizzazz, and an inspirational vision for the future can pull the youth.
“If you’re looking for a breath of fresh air in this increasingly noxious political environment, wherein anger-driven voters permeate both political parties, look no further than America’s youth,” Luntz wrote.
For their futures, the youth are excited: 88 percent of them are “somewhat,” “extremely,” or “very” optimistic. For America, 61 percent think the “best days are still ahead of us,” even though 54 percent of young Americans think that the country is “off on the wrong track right now.” They aren’t despairing about their position in the country or the country’s position in the future. Even with student debt, youth employment twice as high as the national average, and the pitched rhetoric of the election, they have hope.
“This generation simply rejects the gloom and doom, even as their parents and grandparents fret that America is in decline,” Luntz said.
As optimistic as they can be, the survey stretches belief for the youth turnout.
Luntz predicted that “they’ll be bringing their own ideas to the polls – in droves!” Not just droves, but an overwhelming mass.
“Fully 87 percent are likely to vote in the coming [p]residential election,” he said.
That, however, is extremely unlikely. The oldest Americans are the most likely to vote, and in the 2012 election, about 72 percent of voters age 65 and older cast a ballot, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. For young voters ages 18 to 29, 45 percent of them voted. Anything close to 87 percent would be, frankly, astounding.
If the primaries are any indication for general election turnout, the youth vote won’t dramatically increase. If anything, it might decrease.
Democrats, who generally poll better among younger voters in recent elections, have had low turnout so far. Even with the Bernie Sanders campaign capturing most Democratic youth voters, the young haven’t flocked to Democratic primary contests. Nevada turnout was 33 percent lower, and Iowa turnout was 15 percent lower, than in 2008. If anything, Republicans could drive more voter turnout. South Carolina voter turnout was about 22 percent higher than in 2012.
Young Americans might look to the future with big plans and hearts filled with hope, but a record-setting turnout won’t define November.
