While everyone focuses on tankers transferring the Iranian oil, a massive financial valve remains open to Tehran on NATO’s eastern border. On paper, Iran is entering its most restrictive sanctions environment since 2012. United Nations snapback has reactivated global measures on Iran’s energy trade, but Western enforcement remains partial. And Iran continues to sell crude oil to China. Yet one of Tehran’s most strategically important export routes, the Tabriz–Ankara gas corridor, has expanded rather than contracted.
Under a long-term contract signed in 2001, Iran can ship up to 9.6 billion cubic meters of gas each year to Turkey, with the agreement set to expire in July 2026. Turkey’s energy minister recently described Iran as a “major” supplier and expressed hope that supplies would continue for “years and decades to come.” Despite the snapback, Ankara is still taking near-contract volumes, and negotiations over what follows after 2026 are already underway.
