For nearly half a century, the Iranian people have endured a religious dictatorship that rules through repression, economic mismanagement, and the export of radical ideology. Today, the regime is more desperate than ever before. As massive protests sweep across Iran, emanating from a wide spectrum of grievances, we face a pivotal moment: Will the United States finally support the Iranian people’s quest for freedom, or will it repeat the mistakes of the past?
The U.S. intelligence community has often struggled to predict the outcomes of major geopolitical shifts, and Iran is no exception. What the intelligence community analysts do well is assess the intentions and capabilities of adversaries. Currently, the evidence is clear: Iran’s economic crisis and widespread public grievances have created the conditions for real change. Yet, previous American support for anti-regime movements has been tepid, leaving the Iranian people to fight and die alone.
