It is clear that the Iran-backed Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, were a blunder of epic proportions for the Islamic regime. Many of history’s great military disasters center on a major tactical error. The Romans at the Battle of Cannae and Napoleon’s invasion of Russia failed spectacularly because leadership underestimated a presumably inferior opponent. Heavy Persian losses at Thermopylae were due to Greek defenders employing both the terrain and their own training as force multipliers. The Iranians may not have made such an egregious tactical error, but the results are likely to be no less devastating.

The most obvious modern parallel is the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor. The goal of the Japanese was to destroy America’s Pacific fleet and discourage, or at least delay, U.S. involvement in WWII. Obviously, this backfired immediately, and public opinion swayed dramatically against isolationism. Imperial Japan never predicted the overwhelming capacity of American manufacturing, or the fact that the once-decimated Pacific fleet would, by 1942, be capable of winning decisive victories at Midway and Guadalcanal. Japan never regained its status as a major imperial power, but its citizens do enjoy living under a constitution written by the United States.