Somewhere, Tom Cruise is dangling from a helicopter skid, wondering how Vice President JD Vance plans to stick the landing in 2028.
Reports this week suggest Vance, 41, may be reconsidering his 2028 White House bid — and a close look at the obstacles ahead reveals why it’s not crazy. Getting to the swearing-in ceremony will require a political high-wire act for the ages.
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Consider Step 1: Vance must embrace a president who, as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) learned the hard way, still runs the Republican Party, while not losing his New Right base that deplores that president’s war in Iran.
Recent polling underscores the challenge. The vice president has been hovering in the 30%-40% range for the GOP nomination in recent months, down from highs in the 60s in 2025. That base is likely composed of New Right populists who see Vance as their champion and MAGA loyalists who’ve transferred their allegiance to him as Trump’s natural successor. Traditional conservatives and libertarians, meanwhile, appear likely to oppose him.
It’s a combustible coalition. To hold it together, Vance must navigate Iran in a way that simultaneously signals loyalty to the president and solidarity with the isolationists. So far, he’s managed this by lauding Trump as a “smart president” while quietly signaling opposition to the war. But is this approach tenable under the intense scrutiny of a presidential primary?
Complicating matters is the famously fickle Trump, who won’t abide public criticism from his would-be heir, and at least one New Right challenger — Massie? — who will gleefully paint any ambiguity on Iran as proof that Vance is in cahoots with Israel.
Vance will need to perform the same balancing act on the economy. Trump will expect his second-in-command to parrot his boasts about “the hottest country in the world.” But the New Right’s grievances about Trump’s focus on global issues at the expense of the homeland won’t simply disappear.
Trump’s economy has to produce a manufacturing renaissance or reduce the cost of living, and gas prices have soared as a result of the war. Unless the economy starts humming in a major way, this will be another wire Vance has to walk in heels.
And while his New Right rivals will hit Vance from the nationalist flank of the party, free marketeers — Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)? Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)? — will hit him from the traditional conservative side, blasting Trump’s tariff regime as an economic disaster. And Vance, who championed protectionism long before it was party orthodoxy, will have no clean escape. If the economy is hurting in 2028, he won’t just be defending Trump’s record. He’ll be defending his own.
Other major issues for the Republican electorate, including artificial intelligence, abortion, and immigration, will also be difficult to navigate under Trump’s watchful eye, the New Right’s unforgiving litmus tests, and a primary field eager to drive wedges.
And this all assumes that Secretary of State Marco Rubio doesn’t run despite momentum that’s suddenly hard to ignore. The latest poll from AtlasIntel, 2024’s most accurate pollster, showed Rubio besting Vance 45%-30%. Rubio has offered public support for a Vance run for over a year. Whether that holds as the numbers keep moving is another question entirely.
Most difficult of all, Vance will need to emerge from the nominating process without becoming unelectable by gifting the Democratic nominee a highlight reel of unforgivable clips — praising an economy voters hate, promising to restart mass deportations of noncriminals, or wrapping himself in an unpopular war.
And he’ll have to do all this without appearing to be just another political operator speaking out of both sides of his mouth. The greatest danger to Vance’s political future might not be losing, but appearing to lack what made him compelling in the first place — the sense that he actually means what he says.
Still, it would be foolish to bet against Vance as of today. He’s got the natural advantages of incumbency, he’s building a fundraising juggernaut as finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, and he’s a world-class debater. He’ll have real challengers, but no one will be eager to pull on the gloves with him. Just ask 2024 opponent Tim Walz what it’s like going a few rounds with the vice president.
DEMOCRATS SHOULD WORK WITH VANCE TO FIGHT FRAUD
But the combination of Vance’s youth and the sheer complexity of the mission might convince him to hold off a cycle or two. In 2032 or 2036, Vance could run on his own terms, advancing his own vision free of Trump’s baggage and without losing any of the gravitas that comes with being a former vice president.
Then again, he could just choose to accept the mission, cue the theme music, and hope the wire holds.