Deterrence only works if an adversary assesses that the cost of a response to acting will significantly outweigh any prospective gains. At present, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not sufficiently deterred from carrying out major cyberattacks on the United States.

That’s a problem, because Putin will view cyberattacks as an increasingly preferable means of retaliation for Western sanctions on Russia. Military and intelligence sources tell me that Putin’s war in Ukraine is going so badly that Russia may lose the ability to conduct significant offensive operations in Ukraine by mid-April. In turn, Putin will likely wish to restore the strategic initiative via military escalation or more affordable, covert means such as cyberattacks. Putin might also see cyberattacks on the U.S. as a means of retribution for Western sanctions imposed on Russia’s economy. It’s undeniable that those Western sanctions have smashed the value of Russia’s ruble currency, catalyzed already high inflation rates, and greatly limited Russia’s access to global markets.