The net federal debt is about 100% of annual GDP. A high debt-to-GDP ratio raises interest rates. It makes the United States hostage to the emotions of international investors. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the deficit is on a trajectory to 118% of GDP by 2035 and that paying interest on the debt will increase from the current 3% of GDP to over 4% of GDP within 10 years. Paying interest on the debt is growing at almost 10% a year, substantially faster than growth in nominal GDP, the combination of real growth plus inflation. Interest on the debt is not a productive use of U.S. resources.
This path is not sustainable. At some point soon, the public market in U.S. Treasurys will break. Investors will just say “no” to the open faucet of federal spending. Interest rates will spike, and a deep recession will follow. To compound the fiscal crisis that the nation faces, the U.S. Senate is now considering an omnibus reconciliation bill, which will almost certainly become law sometime in July or August of this year. This reconciliation bill will make the deficit outlook even darker.
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