MLB outlook, week of 5/30/10

 1. Decline and fall of the Astros » Dear Drayton McLane, your baseball team is terrible. It was terrible last season. Stop pretending the Astros have any chance of contending in the NL Central and sell off every available asset you have. Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee. All of them are now aging players who make far too much money. Pretty sure you can win 16 games in two months with a rebuilding roster, too. Hey, but at least you have a great farm system. Oh wait. Baseball America ranked yours dead last in Major League Baseball before the season. That’s even more incentive for Houston to trade its stars for rising young talent and hit next month’s draft hard. Let the rebuilding begin.

2. Slumping studs » Many of baseball’s most reliable aces are off to rough starts. Of the 16 starting pitchers in the 2009 All-Star Game, eight have losing records. And that doesn’t include the D’backs’ Dan Haren (5-4, 5.35 ERA), who has given up 16 home runs, four more than any pitcher in baseball, and Josh Beckett (1-1, 7.29). The worst offenders have been the D’backs’ Edwin Jackson (3-5, 6.26) and the Nats’ Jason Marquis (0-3, 20.52), who went to the DL after three horrendous starts. Even reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (5-1, 3.00) has slumped recently with his two worst back-to-back starts since his rookie season. AL Cy Young Zach Greinke is 1-5.

3. National League surprises » The Reds were a mild upset pick to contend in the NL Central — though few thought they would actually challenge the Cardinals for the division title. The Padres were in no way a trendy choice to push for a playoff spot before the season. In fact, most observers fingered them as the worst team in the NL West and the league. But Cincinnati and San Diego entered the weekend in first place and both teams expect to stay a while — even if they’re working at it in different ways. The Padres had the lowest team ERA in baseball (2.96) entering the weekend. And while the Reds have some nice starting pitchers, it is their offense — third best in the National League — that has carried them.

SERIES TO WATCH
Rays at Blue Jays, Monday-Wednesday
Toronto is playing like a legitimate wild card contender, but few believe the Blue Jays can stay competitive in the AL East. One thing is for sure though, they can score. Toronto entered the weekend with the major-league lead in runs scored behind Jose Bautista’s 15 homers and 39 RBI. Tampa Bay was swept by Boston last week, but still owns the best record in baseball. The series features the AL’s best offense against the league’s best pitching. How long can Toronto stay afloat in the toughest division in baseball?