On paper, the numbers look overwhelming. The Nationals entered spring training with 12 candidates for their starting rotation — and that didn’t include Livan Hernandez (signed last week) or top prospect Jordan Zimmermann (Tommy John surgery). The problem? That list is getting pared down by the minute. It’s almost like the Nats have created three rotations: one for Opening Day, one for July and one for Opening Day in 2011. Let’s handicap all three:
Opening Day » The top three are set. Hernandez joins Jason Marquis and John Lannan, provided the big man doesn’t implode. That leaves two spots. But Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder) won’t be ready, and Stephen Strasburg is almost certainly headed to the minors. Scott Olsen (shoulder) is not 100 percent yet, so he remains a question mark. To start the season, I’ll say the final two spots go to Craig Stammen and Garrett Mock. That leaves Matt Chico — now healthy — J.D. Martin, Shairon Martis and Collin Balester in reserve at Triple-A Syracuse — with Strasburg, of course.
Recommended Stories
July 2010 » Things will change quickly, though. Wang expects to be back by late May. Let’s give him six extra weeks to build shoulder strength and get some minor league rehab starts. Olsen may not need as much time. But he, too, is a better bet with some warmer weather and extra time in Florida. And by July 1 Nats fans almost certainly will get their first glimpse of Strasburg. Barring struggles in the minors, he will come up when his free agent clock is officially delayed.
April 2011 » Lannan and Marquis are still under contract. Neither is a star. Both can anchor the back of a rotation. Strasburg is up for good with a half-season of major league experience. This is also when the investment in Wang really pays off. With Wang still under contract and a year to get healthy, the Nats suddenly have a proven Cy Young candidate in the rotation. The final spot? Don’t forget Zimmermann, an elite prospect before his injury. He will be 20 months clear of surgery by next April.
