Strasburg gets an extra day of rest

The Nationals announced that top pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg will make his next minor-league start for Triple-A Syracuse on May 18th. That gives the 21-year-old an extra day of rest as he adjusts to pro ball. So far, he’s not having any problems. Wednesday night, Strasburg dominated Norfolk with six innings of no-hit ball. He allowed just one walk and another batter reached on an error. That May 18th start isn’t very far, either, with the short drive to Rochester. His stats in seven starts combined between Syracuse and Double-A Harrisburg are eye popping. Strasburg is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA. He’s allowed four earned runs in 34 innings pitched and just 14 hits. Opponents have drawn all of eight walks. He has struck out 40. His WHIP – walks, hits to innings pitched ratio – is .65.

Now, Strasburg is set up to pitch May 23 at home in Syracuse against Toledo – unless, of course, the team decides to make his major-league debut that afternoon against the Orioles at Nationals Park. But the plan has always been to give Strasburg around 50 innings in the minors and about 100 in the majors, give or take 10 or 15 innings. Would the Nats really give him just one more minor-league start and call it a day? The team has already delayed his free-agent status for a year. That comes after the 2016 season. Do they care about his Super-2 status, too, which would delay the inevitable arbitration raise a year as well? That decision saves the club some money so the answer seems obvious. Strasburg is guaranteed $3 million in 2012. A good start to his career could net him a raise to around $6 million in arbitration. But a start like Tim Lincecum of the Giants had – two Cy Youngs in his first three seasons – means agent Scott Boras could ask for as much as $15 million or more. The truth lies somewhere in between. But why even gamble. Keep Strasburg in the minors until early June and the Nats for sure have kicked the arbitration issue down the road a year to after the 2013 season. It’s just good business. 

If Strasburg does pitch against Baltimore on May 23 and stays with the team throughout the season he would accumulate about 131 days of major-league service time. That could be enough to gain arbitration rights after the 2012 season instead of 2013. The limit varies depending on the year, but waiting a few days into June would limit Strasburg to about 118 days of service time – historically low enough to miss qualifying as a Super-2. Of course, the Nats plan to shut Strasburg down in early September anyway to give his arm a break. They could call him up May 23 and just send him back to the minors for the final month of the season. But would such a patently financial move sit well with a potential star player you have to negotiate with in the future?