If Iowa is any indication, Republicans are about to have a terrible, no good, very bad year in 2018.
A new poll by the Des Moines Register shows that 40 percent of Iowans would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election was held tomorrow. Just 34 percent would pick a Republican. That’s a six-point difference and that’s a problem—particularly for the Republicans who hold three of the state’s four congressional seats.
After winning by not uncomfortable margins in 2016, Iowa Reps. Rod Blum, David Young, and Steve King are staring into an abyss in 2018. They have congressional inactivity to blame to be sure. But it’s not entirely their fault. Despite cozying up to the ethanol industry, Trump continues to lose ground in the corn-growing state.
About 60 percent of voters who responded to another Des Moines Register survey said that they disapproved of the president. Just 35 percent approve of the job he’s doing, a significant drop from the 43 percent who said the same back in July. That means that less than a year into his first term, the president is already 25 points underwater
Put in context, that’s staggering because Iowa isn’t some bastion of liberalism. It’s Trump country. After losing Iowa during the Republican primary, Trump roared back to win it during the general election. He carried the state by 9.4 points—a larger margin than Trump won in Texas.
Unless something changes, this blight could spread out of Iowa and across the country.