Uh-oh. That once threatened Democratic “blue wave” targeting Republicans is picking up hurricane strength.
Today four separate expert political forecasters said that the Democrats are headed to victory on Election Day, setting up the potential for impeachment hearings against President Trump orchestrated by “Speaker” Nancy Pelosi.
With Democrats in need of 23 seats to switch the majority, all four presented by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics give the liberals a cushion of from four seats to 21 seats.
“This is likely to be a very good year for the Democrats in the House of Representatives. In fact, all four forecasts expect a Democratic House majority,” said James E. Campbell of the University at Buffalo and author of “Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America.”
Introducing the forecasts on UVa.’s Sabato Crystal Ball, he said however that the Republicans look to keep control of the Senate, and “perhaps pick up a seat or two.”
The House GOP losses range from 27 to 44.
As bad as that would be for Republicans and great for Pelosi’s team, it isn’t as bad as the losses suffered in midterms by former Presidents Clinton and Obama.
Many of the forecasts so far have focused mostly on the impact of a low-approval president like Trump. Campbell in his analysis also notes the good economy, suggests the impact is minimal.
“Despite strong economic growth (real GDP growth of 4.2 percent in the second quarter), federal income tax cuts, and a low and declining unemployment rate (under 4 percent), the political climate leading into the midterm seems to favor the Democrats. An important indicator of this is the president’s approval rating. In mid-August, President Donald Trump’s approval hovered around 40,” he wrote.
