Esper to NATO: Step up in Iraq, so US can step back

But at today’s NATO meeting, Esper pressed a more immediate concern: convincing those allies to use those capabilities to lighten the load on the U.S. in the fight against ISIS and defending against Iran, so that the American military can align its forces to counter with Russia and China, under its 2018 National Defense Strategy.

INCREASE TO DECREASE: At a time when Iraq — outraged that the U.S. killed Iranian Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani — is talking about booting the 5,000 U.S. troops out of the country, Esper wants to essentially replace the American forces with troops from other NATO nations.

“What we want to do is increase the NATO activities’ presence in Iraq,” Esper told reporters on his plane to Belgium. “To the degree that NATO offset the U.S. presence, that would over time allow us to bring some forces home, which you all should know has been my ambition for some time.”

“That’s a clear, easy offset, right? If they put additional forces in, we have the means to reduce the forces,” Esper said. “A NATO increase could allow us to do a decrease … but the first thing is getting NATO in, and once we get NATO in, or more NATO partners in, we could look at reducing our footprint.”

RELUCTANT ALLIES: Esper has made a similar pitch to NATO nations about doing more to contain Iran, including requesting warships to help patrol the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and provide Saudi Arabia with more robust missiles defenses to counter the threat from Iranian missiles and drones, like the one launched against a Saudi oil facility last September.

So far the response has been underwhelming. Of the seven countries participating in the International Maritime Security Construct charged with protecting shipping in the Gulf, only three are NATO allies: Albania, the U.K. and the U.S.

And France was the only country to help out in Saudi Arabia, sending an early warning radar.

Deterring “Iranian bad behavior” in general, and helping Saudi Arabia in particular, are examples, Esper said, “where I’d like to see greater NATO participation.’

After last year’s attack on Saudi Arabia, Esper says he called at least a half dozen NATO partners who have NATO-compatible air defense systems and asked them to send units. “The French provided radar, but I need … interceptors to help out,” Esper said.

“I will likely bring that up again,” he said. “I want to continue that dialogue.”

NO QUID PRO QUO: Asked what the U.S. might offer in return for NATO assuming a much larger role in Iraq, Esper said, “I don’t think it’s as much offering an incentive as the fact that we all have a shared interest. The shared interest is ensuring the continued defeat of ISIS.”

“Ensuring the defeat of ISIS, number one. The way you do it — do that is through our own forces doing it, right?” he said.

“We can do more,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in his pre-ministerial news conference, yesterday. “Ministers will discuss the future of our mission in Iraq,” Stoltenberg said, as well as “What more NATO can do in the wider region to build long-term stability and security.”

But Stoltenberg warned that like the U.S., NATO military trainers are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government. “NATO fully respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq,” he said. “That is why we are closely consulting with the Iraqi government as we look to the future.”

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HAPPENING TODAY: Russell Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget testifies before the House Budget Committee hearing on President Trump’s FY 2021 budget request, https://budget.house.gov/legislation/hearings

ALSO TODAY: U.S. Army Africa Commander Maj. Gen. Roger Cloutier briefs the press by telephone from Vicenza, Italy, at 10 a.m. in the Pentagon Briefing Room. Watch for possible last-minute live feed at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events

ESPER HINTS US COULD MATCH RUSSIAN MISSILES IN EUROPE: Tomorrow the NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels are scheduled to review the alliance response to Russia’s deployment of new missile systems, specifically the land-based SSC-8 cruise missile, which led the U.S. to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty last August.

En route to NATO headquarters, Esper said once the U.S. has completed development of its own short to medium range missiles, it will be up to the combatant commanders to request them where needed. “As I’ve said in the past, I would consult with my commanders. Do they need these missiles in our theater? If they do, then we would begin a series of consultations with our allies and partners about where do we deploy those missiles,” Esper said.

“That’s on the offensive side,” Esper said. “Then there’s the defensive side. How do you defend against these types of missiles? … Many of our NATO partners are concerned the Russians have these systems deployed, have had them deployed in violation of the treaty.”

“We are now looking into what more we can do,” said Stoltenberg ahead of Esper’s arrival. “We strongly believe that the best answer to this is to have effective arms control, to make sure that we avoid a new, big arms race. It is dangerous and it’s costly, he said. “But as long as Russia does not respect existing agreements, like the INF agreement, then of course there is no way that we can maintain that treaty.”

CHINA THE BIGGER THREAT: Esper quickly added that China, which was never a party to the now defunct Cold War-era INF treaty, is a much bigger worry when it comes the threat posed by short and intermediate range missiles.

“I’m more concerned about Asia, Indo-Pacific, where China has easily over a thousand of these missiles,” he said.

IRAN’S MISSILE FAILURES NO CAUSE FOR CELEBRATION: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is cautioning that Iran’s recent fourth failed satellite launch in a year does not means it is not advancing in ballistic missile technology

“Each launch, whether failed or not, further allows Iran to gain experience using such technologies that could benefit its missile programs under the guise of a peaceful space program,” Pompeo said in a statement yesterday.

“The Iranian regime uses satellite launches to develop its ballistic missile capabilities. The technologies used to launch satellites into orbit are virtually identical and interchangeable with those used in longer range systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles,” he said.

“Iran’s series of space launches reflects the failure of the Iran deal to constrain testing that could support further advancement of Iran’s ballistic missile program. The Iran deal lifted the prohibition on Iran’s missile testing and development of systems capable of delivering nuclear weapons.”

RIFT WITH THE PHILIPPINES: Esper says the Pentagon has received formal notification from President Rodrigo Duterte that he intends to terminate the longstanding Visiting Forces Agreement that allows the U.S. to base troops and conduct training in the Philippines.

“We just got the notification late last night. We have to digest it. We have to work through the policy angles, the military angles. I’m going to hear from my commanders. But you know, in my view, it’s unfortunate that they would make this move,” Esper said, indicating the decision came as a bit of a surprise.

“I was just there. Some of you were with me,” he told reporters. “I had very good meetings with Philippine defense officials.”

Duterte has delivered some notable anti-American rants over the years, and just two weeks ago gave an interview to broadcaster Russia Today in which he said the U.S. sees his country as “a vassal state.”

“America is not the Philippines and the Philippines is not America. It ain’t that way anymore, and I refuse to dovetail under American foreign policy,” he said. “I cannot get a credible posture from the Americans; I can get it from the Russians and China.”

For now the agreement remains in effect, but notification starts a 180-day clock, at which time the agreement will expire. “One hundred and eighty days. We’ve got to work through it, and we’ll just take a deep breath and take it one day at a time.”

TALIBAN PEACE DEAL? President Trump has reportedly given conditional approval to a peace deal with the Taliban that would potentially be the beginning of the end of America’s longest war, according to Afghan and American officials.

“But the deal will only be signed if the Taliban prove their commitment to a durable reduction of violence over a test period of about seven days later this month,” reports the New York Times. “If the Taliban do end hostilities and a deal is signed, the United States would then begin a gradual withdrawal of American troops, and direct negotiations would start between the Taliban and Afghan leaders over the future of their country,” the newspaper said.

TALIBAN SURPASSES ISIS AS DEADLIEST NON-STATE ACTOR: Meanwhile a new analysis from Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre says the Afghanstan-based Taliban has surpassed the Islamic State to become the world’s deadliest non-state armed group.

The group reported that while terrorist attacks decreased 10% to 14,009 in 2019, the lowest level since 2011, at the same time Taliban attacks increased by almost 90%, resulting in a 60% increase in deaths.

The data shows that the Taliban accounted for more deaths than the next nine deadliest groups combined.

WEEDING OUT BAD APPLES: Several airmen protecting the nation’s intercontinental ballistic missiles have been relieved of their security duties pending an investigation into possible marijuana use, the Air Force Global Strike Command, reports Abraham Mahshie, defense and security reporter for the Washington Examiner.

“We are an ICBM base,” said Capt. James Fisher of F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, where the off-base, off-duty incident was reported. “The use of illicit drugs, including marijuana, although it might be legal elsewhere, they are prohibited from using it.”

Warren and its 3,600 service members help protect a nuclear arsenal of 150 ICBM missiles spread over a three-state radius that borders Colorado, where marijuana is legal for recreational use.

Fisher said the base’s legal team emphasizes the Uniform Code of Military Justice’s zero tolerance drug policy to personnel when they arrive.

“We understand that Colorado is just a few minutes away, and it is legal there, however, again, here’s a reminder of what the UCMJ says,” he noted on Tuesday, adding that cannabinoids that include the hallucinogenic chemical THC and the nonhallucinogenic CBD, often found in pain ointments, are prohibited.

The Rundown

Washington Post: Pompeo Claims ‘Progress’ In Talks With Taliban

VOA: Afghan Leaders: US-Taliban Peace Talks Making ‘Notable Progress’

Stars and Stripes: Are We Winning The Afghanistan War? That’s Classified, Sopko Says

Washington Examiner: ‘Nobody knows exactly’: China might lead the race to produce killer robots, NATO commander says

Defense News: As China Expands Navy, U.S. Begins Stockpiling Ship-Killing Missiles

AP: Defense Minister Says Turkey Won’t Pull Out Amid Syria Push

USNI News: Marines Will Soon Reveal Plans To Divest Old Systems, Invest In New Tech To Fight China

Military.com: Navy Plans To Cut Shipbuilding Budget Face Swift Pushback On Capitol Hill

Wall Street Journal: Iran’s Embattled Leadership Calls For Support In Face Of Electoral Test

Washington Examiner: ‘Intelligence coup of the century’: CIA secretly owned encryption firm used by other countries to communicate

South China Morning Post: U.S. Warns China About Using Singapore Air Show As ‘Platform For Exploitation And Theft’

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 12

All Day Brussels, Belgium — Defense Secretary Mark Esper attends meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of Defense Ministers at the NATO Headquarters, chaired by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Arl, — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion on “An Operational Assessment of the U.S. Air Force, with Lt. Gen. Mark Kelly, Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations. Register at http://events.r20.constantcontact.com

10 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — U.S. Army Africa Commander Maj. Gen. Roger Cloutier briefs the press by telephone from Vicenza, Italy. https://www.defense.gov

10 a.m. 210 Cannon — House Budget Committee hearing on President Trump’s FY 2021 budget request, with Russell Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget. https://budget.house.gov/legislation/hearings

10:15 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on U.S.-Libya Policy, with testimony from David Schenker, assistant Secretary Of State, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs; and Christopher Robinson, deputy assistant Secretary of State, Bureau Of European And Eurasian Affairs. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing on “Land Based Ranges: Building Military Readiness While Protecting Natural and Cultural Resources,” with Jordan Gillis, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Army for energy, installations, and environment; Todd Mellon, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for energy, installations, and environment; and Jennifer Miller, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy installations, and environment. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

3 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on a new report, “What do we Know About Cyber Escalation?: Observations from Simulations and Surveys,” with Erica Borghard, assistant professor in the U.S. Military Academy’s Army Cyber Institute; Aaron Brantly, assistant professor in Virginia Tech’s Center for National Security and Technology; Benjamin Jensen, professor of strategic studies at Marine Corps University; and Brandon Valeriano, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

3:30 p.m. —1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on “Everything You Know About Ukraine is Wrong,” with Yevhen Hlibovytsky, partner at Pro Mova; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

8 p.m. EST University of Texas at San Antonio — Council on Foreign Relations Election 2020 U.S. Foreign Policy Forum, with former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson; former national security adviser Stephen Hadley; former Assistant Defense Secretary for International Security Affairs Mary Beth Long;; Margaret Talev, White House and politics editor at Axios; and Richard Haass, president of CFR. Livestream at https://www.cfr.org/event

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 13

All Day Brussels, Belgium — Day two of NATO Defense ministerial at NATO Headquarters, with U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. https://www.nato.int

9 a.m. — Access Intelligence LLC’s ExchangeMonitor Publications and Forums Nuclear Deterrence Summit, with Alan Shaffer, deputy defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment; and Dimitri Kusnezov, deputy energy undersecretary for artificial intelligence. https://www.deterrencesummit.com

9:30 a.m. G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hears testimony from U.S. Northern Commander Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy and U.S. Strategic Commander Adm. Charles Richard on the defense authorization request for Fiscal Year 2021 and the future years defense program. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

11:40 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arl.— Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association luncheon discussion, with Paul Puckett, director of the Army’s Enterprise Cloud Management Office; Army Col. Elizabeth “Liz” Casley, chief of staff at the Army Futures Command’s Network Cross Functional Team; and Anthony Robbins, president of AFCEA Washington, D.C. and vice president for the North America public sector at NVIDIA https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/february2020

12 p.m. 1203 Van Munching Hall, College Park, Md. — University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies forum on “Innovation and Its Discontents: National Models of Military Innovation and the Dual-Use Conundrum,” with Amy Nelson, research fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction. https://cissm.umd.edu/events

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 14

All Day, Munich, Germany — Defense Secretary Mark Esper attends the 56th Munich Security Conference will take place at Hotel Bayerischer Hof Friday through Saturday. https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2020

12:30 p.m. 14th and F Sts. N.W. — National Press Club newsmaker luncheon address with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy. https://www.press.org/events/headliners

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 18

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arl. — Association of the United States Army breakfast with Lt. Gen. Thomas Horlander, military deputy to the assistant secretary of the Army (financial management & comptroller). Register at https://www.ausa.org/events/breakfast-series

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 20

11:00 a.m. 620 L St. N.W., — Daniel Morgan Graduate School discussion “Just War Reconsidered,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. James Dubik, author of Just War Reconsidered: Strategy, Ethics, and Theory. Register at: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/just-war-reconsidered

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 21

10:00 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conversation with the service secretaries, with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett, acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly, and Kathleen Hicks, director, CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/discussion

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 4

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — McAleese Defense Programs Conference. Register at [email protected]