Russian President Vladimir Putin’s gushing Ukraine wound is beginning to bleed into other aspects of Moscow’s foreign policy, weakening Russian power in the process.
The Russian military’s modernization drive (Michael Kofman calculated that $150-$180 billion were pumped into the Russian defense budget every year between 2014-2019) hasn’t exactly worked out for Putin. The string of Russian defeats we’ve seen in Ukraine this year is stunning. But the war is also forcing Russia to prioritize Ukraine to the detriment of every other issue, such as retaining influence in Eurasia and the Middle East. A war that Putin hoped would expand Russia’s control over its near-abroad is, in fact, doing the opposite.
It only took a few months for the Russians, running short of manpower and equipment, to start dipping into their assets in other parts of the world. Thousands of mercenaries from the Wagner Group were told to leave Africa to redeploy to the Ukraine front. Syria’s Bashar Assad, whose head would be on a pike if it wasn’t for a yearslong Russian bombing campaign against rebel factions of various ideological persuasions, is seeing Russian units (and Russian air defense systems) fly out of the country.
ISRAEL REJECTS UKRAINE’S REQUEST FOR MILITARY AID AFTER RUSSIA’S THREAT
In Central Asia, traditionally seen as a Russian-dominated neighborhood, Putin’s authority is increasingly challenged. Kazakhstan’s president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who in January requested a Russian-led intervention to help quell massive protests against his rule, not only declined to endorse Moscow’s Ukraine invasion but criticized Putin for declaring the Donetsk and Luhansk regions independent states. Kazakhstan has welcomed Russian men fleeing Putin’s partial mobilization with open arms, with Tokayev saying they must be taken care of.
Armenia, another member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and a country on the receiving end of a renewed offensive by Azerbaijan in September, is likely questioning whether it can rely on Russia as a security ally. Bogged down in Ukraine, Moscow ignored Armenia’s request for assistance. The CSTO, designed to spring into action when one of its members is attacked, instead stayed put and exposed itself as an ineffectual military alliance. China, always keen to exploit an opportunity, isn’t wasting any time trying to build inroads into Central Asia either. While relations between Moscow and Beijing have strengthened considerably over the last decade, Xi Jinping cares about China first. He is cultivating economic and political relationships with Central Asian neighbors at Russia’s expense.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
For Putin, all of these non-Ukraine problems are headaches to put off to a later date. The urgent objective is to turn the war in Ukraine around. Russia’s smaller neighbors in Eurasia and its security partners in the Middle East are unlikely to stand still. They will eventually rethink their arrangements with Moscow if Russia remains trapped in this debacle of its own making.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
