Senate Republicans vulnerable to a Democratic challenge this year are facing a kind of political Catch-22 as the impeachment trial looms: Voting against President Trump risks the wrath of GOP primary voters, but voting for him ensures renomination but could cost them their careers in November.
Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, and Martha McSally of Arizona are under the most pressure, and not just on whether to acquit or convict Trump on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The Senate will vote on whether to call witnesses at trial, another political minefield.
Senate Democrats want testimony from people who could impugn Trump, such as former White House national security adviser John Bolton. Many Republicans, in response, want to subpoena Hunter Biden, son of leading Democratic contender Joe Biden. These and other decisions, amounting to a litmus test on support or opposition to Trump, are fraught with peril for Collins, Gardner, and McSally.
Republicans in their states are fiercely loyal to Trump and would not brook dissent. It could be the exact opposite with the broader electorate. Democrats swept Maine in 2018, leaving Collins as the only Republican elected to major office. Colorado is practically a blue state at this point, and Arizona, dominated by suburban voters, is drifting from the GOP orbit.
“The only reason Sen. Schumer is interested in these votes at all is trying to make it difficult for the members who are in heavily contested reelection situations,” said Roy Blunt of Missouri, the No. 4 ranking Senate Republican. He was referring to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of the New York, who has discussed the political opportunity to flip Republican seats he sees in forthcoming impeachment trial votes.
Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP campaign arm, said Democrats are shamelessly using the impeachment trial to undermine his most politically endangered colleagues.
The NRSC’s counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has for months used impeachment to target Republicans. The DSCC is circulating public opinion polls that show impeachment could be an albatross for exposed Senate Republicans and are unapologetic about publicizing obstacles the issue could pose to their reelection campaigns.
Senate Republicans have softened previously ironclad opposition to witnesses during the trial. Collins revealed she is having informal discussions with colleagues to ensure there are at least 51 votes to subpoena testimony after House Democratic prosecutors and the White House team deliver arguments. But that is not enough for Democrats, who called for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to guarantee their witnesses are called.
“Every senator has a responsibility to secure a fair hearing, but Senate Republicans are refusing to guarantee that witnesses will be heard or new evidence will be admitted,” DSCC spokeswoman Lauren Passalacqua told the Washington Examiner.
Senate Republicans are indicating that they will take their chances with Trump, especially with GOP primary season fast approaching. The president’s approval numbers have remained consistent throughout the impeachment process, and congressional Republicans figure sticking with him and taking their chances in the general election is the safer bet.
In the midterm elections, battleground Republicans who sought political separation from Trump lost, an outcome the party has internalized.
“I view this as a political process,” Tillis said. “So, I’m going in, most likely viewing this as the continuation of a political process in the House and, as a result, there’s no way I can see any path” to conviction.
