It's commonplace to declare Donald Trump the front-runner in all or nearly all of the Super Tuesday states. But we don't really know that. The polling from many of those states is scant, out of date, or nonexistent, making it impossible to say with any certainty who is leading.
The Super Tuesday states are Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vermont, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Alaska. In only two of them, Alabama and Massachusetts, do we have even one poll done even partially after last Thursday's debate. And in some states, the polling is much, much older.
Take Arkansas, where Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz will all campaign in the final days before Super Tuesday. The RealClearPolitics poll monitor shows two polls from Arkansas — one from early February, with Cruz leading, and one from last August, with Trump in front. Who's leading in Arkansas today? Who knows?
Or Tennessee. RealClearPolitics has two polls from there — one from last November, with Trump up by four, and one from last August, with Trump up by 20.
The most recent poll from Alaska is from early January. From Minnesota, mid-January. Vermont, early February.
Even in states with relatively fresh polls, there's no way to judge the impact, if any, of last Thursday's debate. In Texas, where favorite son Cruz leads by seven points in the RealClearPolitics average, the most recent poll was finished on debate day. The same is true for Virginia, where Trump leads by 15. In Georgia, where Trump is also up by 15, the most recent poll was finished the day before the debate. Same for Oklahoma.
In Massachusetts, a Suffolk poll, conducted mostly after the debate, shows Trump leading by 23 points. In Alabama, a post-debate Opinion Savvy poll shows Trump up by 13.
So no state has multiple polling after the debate, and most don't have any. Did the widely-watched faceoff in Houston change the dynamics of the race? We don't know. And if the debate had any effect, that effect is probably still settling out at this moment.
So the bottom line. It might be that Trump is in fact leading in all the Super Tuesday states except Texas. But we don't really know that.