Pentagon watchdog: US no longer tracking Taliban gains in Afghanistan

In a response that the independent watchdog included in an annex to the report, the headquarters of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan said the district stability assessment is no longer being produced because it was of “limited decision-making value” to the U.S. commander of the NATO mission, Gen. Scott Miller.

“The latest data from the few remaining publicly available measures of the security situation in Afghanistan — enemy-initiated attacks, general [Afghan National Defense and Security Forces] casualty trends, and security incidents — show that Afghanistan experienced heightened insecurity over the winter months while the United States and the Taliban held talks in Qatar, thus far without the participation of the Afghan government,” wrote John Sopko, the special inspector general, in the preface to the report.

KEY INDICATORS: In the report, none of the major indicators is trending positive.

• Enemy-initiated attacks, as a monthly average, were up 19% between November 2018 and January 2019 compared with the previous quarter.
• Afghan National Defense and Security Forces casualties were up 31% between Dec. 1, 2018, and Feb. 28, 2019, compared with the same period a year ago.
• Pilot training classes in the United States had to be dissolved due to the number of Afghan trainees going absent without leave. More than 40% of students went AWOL. The remaining students have been pulled back to complete their training in Afghanistan.
• Civilian casualties in Afghanistan in 2018 rose by 5% compared with 2017. The number of civilians killed (3,804) increased by nearly 11%, the highest number recorded since the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan began recording civilian-casualty data in 2009. (Injuries increased by 2%.)
• The number of civilian casualties caused by Islamic State-Khorasan more than doubled, from 843 in 2017 to 1,871 in 2018, mainly from suicide and other attacks, including deliberate sectarian-motivated attacks against the minority Shiite population.
• Drought followed by severe floods have affected more than 163,000 people. Of those, more than 42,000 Afghans have been displaced.
• Most Afghan households faced acute food insecurity, meaning they were likely to suffer acute malnutrition or be forced to deplete assets to meet minimum needs. Some households resorted to selling children or forcing them into childhood marriages to survive.

SO ARE WE WINNING?: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was asked that question at Monday’s security forum sponsored by the Hill. His answer: “We’re working with partners and allies in the region. And we’re working with people that we have not worked with in an awfully long time.”

Pompeo said the United States has two goals in Afghanistan: bringing down the level of violence so a political reconciliation can be reached and making sure it can continue counterterrorism operations against ISIS and al Qaeda to prevent any attack on the U.S. homeland.

“It will ultimately be up to the Afghan people to determine if this reconciliation can be successful,” Pompeo said. “We need a broad coalition of non-Taliban Afghans to come together.”

TALKS CONTINUE: U.S. and Taliban officials are meeting today in Qatar to resume talks aimed at ending the 17-year war in Afghanistan, a Taliban official told Reuters.

THREAT OF U.S. FORCE IN VENEZUELA: In an interview on Fox News Channel last night, Pompeo said President Trump is willing to use “military force” if that’s what it takes to remove Nicolás Maduro from power.

“If the question is is the United States prepared to consider military action if that’s what it takes to restore the democracy there in Venezuela, the president’s been consistent and unambiguous about that,” Pompeo told Fox News’ Bret Baier. “The option to use military force is available if that’s what is ultimately called for. We hope it’s not, we hope there can be a peaceful resolution and that Maduro will leave without violence.”

Pompeo was responding to comments from the Venezuelan ambassador to the U.N., who charged that the United States has deployed 3,000 people who are “planning for war” to the American embassy in neighboring Colombia.

So far the effort by opposition leader Juan Guaidó to lead a military uprising to force Maduro out has faltered. Pompeo asserted that Maduro was preparing to flee to Havana, Cuba, yesterday morning until the Russians intervened.

“He had an airplane on the tarmac; he was ready to leave this morning, as we understand it, and the Russians indicated he should stay.” Pompeo told CNN. “We think the situation remains incredibly fluid. We know that there were senior leaders inside the Maduro government that were prepared to leave. They told as much over the past few weeks. And we’re convinced that the Venezuelan people are going to get their democracy back.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and his supporting cast will face questions at 10 this morning from the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense. Appearing alongside Shanahan will be Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford and David Norquist, performing the duties of deputy secretary of defense.

HAPPENING TOMORROW: Shanahan and Dunford then fly to Germany to preside over two separate change of command ceremonies for Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, who will take over from retiring Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti as the head of U.S. European Command Thursday and as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Friday. Wolters was confirmed by the Senate by voice vote Monday night.

END OF THE TRUMAN STORY: It’s an all-too-familiar scenario. Under direction or pressure from the White House, the Pentagon is forced to take an unpopular action, only to be blindsided when President Trump does an about-face. In naval parlance, that would be “Right full rudder, reverse your course!”

On Capitol Hill yesterday, vice chief of naval operations Adm. Bill Moran — nominated to be the next CNO — was laboring to explain why the Navy wanted to mothball a perfectly good aircraft carrier 25 years early, apparently unaware that two hours later, Vice President Mike Pence would be standing in the hanger bay of the USS Harry S. Truman pierside in Norfolk declaring the plan to scuttle the carrier had been shelved.

“President Donald Trump asked me to deliver a message to each and every one of you on the deck of the USS Truman: We are keeping the best carrier in the world in the fight. We are not retiring the Truman,” Pence told the crew to thunderous applause. “The USS Harry S. Truman is going to be ‘giving ’em hell’ for many more years to come.”

Congress had been highly skeptical of the plan to retire the Truman, which was ostensibly about freeing up money to accelerate the buy of another Ford-class carrier and shifting funding into unmanned ships that are believed to be the future of naval warfare. Given that the plan wouldn’t have retired the ship for four more years, there was plenty of time for Congress to restore funding.

Seeing the writing on the wall, President Trump vetoed his own bean-counters. This morning he tweeted, “I am overriding the Decommission Order of the magnificent aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman, built in 1998 (fairly new), and considered one of the largest and finest in the world. It will be updated at a fraction of the cost of a new one (which also are being built)!”

FIRST USAF STRIKE: In a first for the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons system ever, two Air Force F-35A joint strike fighter jets dropped satellite-guided bombs on ISIS tunnels and weapons caches in Iraq’s Hamrin Mountains, marking the A model’s first combat attack mission.

The strikes targeted ISIS positions deep in the Hamrin Mountains, southwest of Kirkuk, where the terrorist group is attempting to reestablish a foothold.

U.S. Air Forces Central Command touted the milestone for the A model of the plane, flown by the Air Force, in a press release that didn’t mention the B model of the plane, flown by the Marine Corps, which conducted an airstrike last year in Afghanistan.

ERDOGAN SAYS F-35 NEEDS TURKEY: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan predicted the F-35 fighter jet project would fail if Turkey, which makes some of the parts for the aircraft, is booted from the program.

Erdoğan spoke Monday with President Trump about U.S. demands that Turkey give up its plans to buy Russian S-400 air defenses and afterward gave no indication he’s backing down. “Let me be frank: An F-35 project from which Turkey is excluded is bound to collapse completely,” Erdoğan said.

The Pentagon has said it is pursuing alternative sources for the parts of the plane produced by Turkey, which includes portions of the fuselage and the cockpit display.

Turkey’s insistence on buying the Russian anti-aircraft system has been deemed “unacceptable” by the United States, which argues the S-400 missile system’s radar could learn to detect the F-35, affecting the American aircraft’s ability to defend itself from Russian systems.

ANOTHER WARNING ABOUT A ‘CATASTROPHIC’ CR: The nominees to head the Navy and the Marine Corps warned the Senate yesterday that failing to secure a budget agreement that lifts spending caps and fully funds the Pentagon would have a devastating impact, just as readiness shortfalls are on the mend. The worst of all worlds: a stop-gap funding measure known as a continuing resolution, which could also trigger cuts under the sequestration provision of the Budget Control Act.

“If it is a continuing resolution … commanders below us have to make hard decisions on what’s in their training plan, and they’ll have to probably delay some of those or cancel them,” Gen. David Berger said during his confirmation hearing to become Marine Corps commandant. “You don’t know how many or how long the continuing resolution will last. So at best, you try to hold your head above water with what you’ve got, but what really happens is an erosion of readiness and in jeopardy is procurement.”

Congress has until Oct. 1 to come up with a defense budget for fiscal 2020 or resort to a CR, which Berger said could be “catastrophic.”

GRAHAM PARTS WITH TRUMP: Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., issued a subtle rebuke to President Trump yesterday when he rejected “any effort — by any party — for a military takeover” in Libya.

Two weeks ago, Trump spoke with renegade Libyan general Khalifa Haftar and praised his “significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources,” according to a White House readout. That was seen by many as legitimizing his march on the capital, Tripoli.

Graham, who said he spoke by phone with Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj yesterday, called for the United States to reinforce its commitment to a political solution.

“The administration, in my view, needs to reaffirm past statements rejecting a military solution in Libya and pushing for political reconciliation,” he said.

CAPE CRUSADER LEAVING: Robert Daigle, the director of the Department of Defense’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, will leave his post this month, according to media reports. Daigle’s office, known as CAPE, is responsible for providing the secretary of defense with independent analysis to influence decisions on the Pentagon’s budget.

Daigle’s office was a key force behind the Pentagon’s plan to decommission the USS Harry S. Truman two decades early and the decision to purchase a new version of Boeing’s F-15X for the Air Force.

REMEMBERING ELLEN TAUSCHER: The chairman and the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee issued a statement recognizing the contributions of former committee member Ellen Tauscher, who died Monday at the age of 67 from pneumonia in Palo Alto, Calif.

“The passing of former Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher is a terrible loss for the nation, California, and those like us who were lucky enough to call her both a colleague and friend,” said the statement from Adam Smith, D-Wash., and Mac Thornberry, R-Texas.

“Throughout Ellen’s fifteen years in Congress, we knew her to be a passionate advocate for American servicemembers, as well as an effective, principled leader with a warm and generous heart. Ellen’s tireless work as a member of the House Armed Services Committee will have an undeniable, lasting impact. Her historic leadership of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee and on nuclear security issues and arms control remains a testament to her interminable commitment [to] the nation’s security and reducing nuclear dangers in particular.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US fumes at Russia and Cuba as Guaidó uprising falters

AP: Assange sentenced to 50 weeks for bail-jumping

Al-Monitor: Saudi-led coalition begins paying US back for overdue Yemen war bills

USNI News: U.S. Will Unveil New Indo-Pacific Strategy Next Month

Reuters: North Korea Warns Of ‘Undesired Consequences’ If No Change In U.S. Nuclear Stance

Defense One: Guantanamo Is Becoming a Nursing Home for Its Aging Terror Suspects

The Hill: House spending bill would block military construction funds for border wall

Military.com: Army May Redesign Its Fighting Formations in Look to the Future

Washington Examiner: Marine Corps predicts 80% of its fighter jets will be combat ready by year’s end

Washington Examiner: Man who allegedly planned to bomb neo-Nazi rally discharged from Army

Washington Post: Democrats accuse Trump ally Erik Prince of lying to Congress, refer case to Justice Dept. for possible prosecution

The Hill: Key chairman surprised that Trump hasn’t nominated Shanahan for Defense secretary

Arms Control Association: Trump Arms Control Gambit: Serious or a Poison Pill?

Washington Post: Ellen Tauscher, former House Democrat and arms negotiator under Obama, dies at 67

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | MAY 1

10 a.m. 2359 Rayburn. House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on Pentagon’s proposed FY 2020 budget. Witnesses: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan; Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and David Norquist, performing the duties of deputy secretary of defense. appropriations.house.gov

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee hearing on “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activity in North and South America.” Witnesses: Adm. Craig Faller, commander, U.S. Southern Command, Gen. Terrance O’Shaughnessy, commander, U.S. Northern Command, and Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security. armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing on “Army Modernization Programs.” Witnesses: Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Gen. John Murray, Army Futures Commander; Lt. Gen. James Pasquarette, deputy chief of staff, Army programs; Jon Ludwigson, acting director, contracting and national security acquisitions, GAO. armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing on “Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request for Military Construction, Energy, and Environmental Programs.” Witnesses: Robert McMahon, assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; John Henderson, assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations, environment, and energy; Alex Beehler, assistant secretary of the Army for installations, energy, and environment; Todd Mellon, performing the duties of principal deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for energy, installations, and environment. armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. SR-222, Russell. Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing on U.S. nuclear weapons policy. Witnesses: Ellen Lord, under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; David Trachtenberg, deputy under secretary of defense for policy; Gen. Timothy Ray, Air Force global strike commander; and Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, strategic systems programs. www.armed-services.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 2

9 a.m. Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing on “Department of the Air Force Acquisition and Modernization Programs.” Witnesses: Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition; Gen. James Holmes, air combat commander; Maj. Gen. David Nahom, Air Force director of programs; Lt. Gen. Anthony Ierardi, joint staff director; Vice Adm. Mathias Winter, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program office; Robert Daigle, director, Pentagon’s cost analysis and program evaluation office; Robert Behler, director, operational test and evaluation office; and Michael Sullivan, director, defense weapon system acquisitions, GAO. armedservices.house.gov

9:30 a.m SD-G50 Dirksen. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Gen. James McConville to be chief of staff of the Army. www.armed-services.senate.gov

4:30 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave N.W. Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) will host “Leadership in the Context of National Security,” a discussion with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. Register at www.eventbrite.com.

FRIDAY | MAY 3

8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. Mitchell Space Breakfast Series discussion “The Importance of Data in the Space Domain.” Speaker: Maj. Gen. Kimberly Crider, mobilization assistant to the commander, Air Force Space Command. Register at events.r20.constantcontact.com.

WEDNESDAY | MAY 8

9 a.m. 801 Wharf St. S.W. Foundation for Defense of Democracies event “Rising to the Threat: Revitalizing America’s Military and Political Power.” Speakers include retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former national security adviser; Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, U.S. Central Command head; Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee; and retired Lt. Gen. Ed Cardon, former U.S. Army Cyber Command head. Invitation only.

12 p.m. 800 M Street N.W. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Brookings Institution sponsor an invitation-only discussion on Operation Tidal Wave II and its role in the destruction of the Islamic State’s finances. Speakers: Retired Gen. John Allen, president of the Brookings Institution; David Asher, former State Department official and FDD senior fellow; and retired Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, former commander of the coalition against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Moderated by Nancy Youssef, national security correspondent at the Wall Street Journal.