THE COMBAT BOOT IS ON THE OTHER FOOT: Slowly but methodically, Ukraine’s tenacious defense of its capital Kyiv has shifted momentum on the battlefield, forcing some Russian forces to retreat and assume a defensive crouch, according to the picture painted by U.S., NATO, and Ukrainian officials along with outside experts.
Ukrainian claims of staggering losses inflicted on the beleaguered Russian army are being confirmed by NATO countries, with a senior NATO military official telling reporters yesterday that between 30,000 to 40,000 Russian troops have been taken out of combat — either captured, wounded, or killed. The official put the number of Russian combat deaths at between 7,000 to 15,000, roughly what the former Soviet Union lost in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
“Russia is likely now looking to mobilize its conscript and reservist manpower as well as private military companies and foreign mercenaries to replace these considerable losses,” said the latest intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry.
NATO: RUSSIAN MILITARY MAY HAVE LOST UP TO 20% OF FORCES
PUSHED BACK, DIGGING IN: The Russian troops have not only failed to make any progress advancing on Kyiv, some forces have been pushed farther away from the city, reports the Washington Examiner’s Mike Brest from the Pentagon.
“The Ukrainians have been able to push the Russians back to about 55 kilometers (35 miles) east and northeast of Kyiv,” a senior defense official told reporters, who noted the day before the Russian forces were between 12 and 18 miles from the city. “It’s not that they’re not advancing. They’re actually not trying to advance right now,” the official said. “They’re taking more defensive positions.”
“It is likely that successful counter attacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganize and resume their own offensive towards Kyiv,” said yesterday’s British intelligence update. “There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin.”
RUSSIAN FORCES ‘TAKING MORE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS’ OUTSIDE KYIV: PENTAGON
‘A PROTRACTED AND STALEMATED CONFLICT’: The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says it appears the assault on Kyiv has stalled for now and that Russian soldiers are digging in for the long haul, awaiting reinforcements and resupply.
“Russian forces continued to settle in for a protracted and stalemated conflict over the last 24 hours, with more reports emerging of Russian troops digging in and laying mines — indications that they have gone over to the defensive,” the ISW said in its latest assessment.
Meanwhile, in the south, the battle for Mariupol “continues as a block-by-block struggle with fierce Ukrainian resistance and limited Russian gains,” the group said.
This morning brought news that Ukrainian forces destroyed at least one amphibious assault ship in the Russian-controlled Port of Berdyansk, setting the ship ablaze while it was docked at a pier.
“Our soldiers have already destroyed more than 100 Russian planes and 125 helicopters, over 520 tanks and 1,500 armored vehicles,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov in a statement. “The total losses of the enemy (killed, wounded, captured or missing) are already over 40 thousand people. The number of deserters is increasing.”
“This period of war which began with the invasion of Crimea by Russia over 8 years ago will go down in history as the ‘month of invincibility,’” Reznikov said.
RUSSIAN TANK-LANDING SHIP SUNK, PORT BURNS IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE
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HAPPENING TODAY: The emergency meeting of NATO leaders will conclude at about 8 a.m. Washington time (2 p.m. in Brussels), and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to brief reporters at NATO headquarters around 8:15 a.m.
“President [Vladimir] Putin has made a big mistake and that is to launch a war, to wage war, against an independent sovereign nation,” said Stoltenberg as he arrived at NATO headquarters this morning. “He has underestimated the strength of the Ukrainian people, the bravery of the Ukrainian people and the armed forces, and therefore they’re also meeting much more resistance than they expected.”
At noon, President Joe Biden is scheduled to deliver remarks on Ukraine at the European Council Summit, followed by an end-of-the-day press conference at 3 p.m. at NATO headquarters. (8 p.m. Brussels time).
UKRAINE HOPES BIDEN AND NATO CAN GO BEYOND SYMBOLISM IN SUMMIT ON RUSSIA’S WAR
US FORMALLY ACCUSES RUSSIA OF WAR CRIMES: After publicly labeling Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal, the U.S. took the next step yesterday, formally leveling charges that Russia’s deliberate targeting of civilians in Ukraine amounts to a war crime.
“Russia’s forces have destroyed apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, critical infrastructure, civilian vehicles, shopping centers, and ambulances, leaving thousands of innocent civilians killed or wounded,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement. “Many of the sites Russia’s forces have hit have been clearly identifiable as in use by civilians.”
At the State Department, Beth Van Schaack, the newly confirmed ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice, told reporters the war crimes conclusion followed “a careful review of currently available information, both public and from intelligence sources,” and said, “As with any alleged crime, ultimately it will be for a court of law to determine individual criminal responsibility.”
US GOVERNMENT: ‘RUSSIA’S FORCES HAVE COMMITTED WAR CRIMES IN UKRAINE’
‘I THINK IT’S A REAL THREAT’: Before he left for Brussels, Biden again raised the specter of a cornered and frustrated Putin resorting to the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine.
“I think it’s a real threat,” Biden said in response to a reporter’s question as he boarded Marine One on the White House lawn.
In his pre-summit news conference yesterday, Jens Stoltenberg said the allies would be discussing plans to provide more equipment to Ukraine to protect and defend against chemical weapons.
“Let me add that of course this is extremely serious for the people of Ukraine. But any use of chemical weapons or biological weapons may also have dire consequences for NATO-allied countries, people living there — the contamination, the spread of chemical or biological agents used in Ukraine may have dire consequences also for the population living in NATO-allied countries in Europe,” Stoltenberg added.
GHOSTED BY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY: The Pentagon revealed yesterday that when U.S. defense officials try to call their Russian counterparts, nobody comes to the phone.
In a statement yesterday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, who is traveling with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Europe, said repeated attempts by Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley to consult by phone with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov have been rebuffed.
The phone link between the Pentagon and Moscow has been described as a “deconfliction line” aimed at averting miscalculation or misunderstandings as U.S. and Russian planes operate in close proximity along Ukraine’s western border.
TIT FOR TAT: Meanwhile, Russia has given the U.S. Embassy in Moscow a list of American diplomats who have been declared “persona non grata” by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The move comes after the U.S. expelled 12 Russian diplomats from Moscow’s U.N. mission in New York, citing “national security concerns.”
“This is Russia’s latest unhelpful and unproductive step in our bilateral relationship. We call on the Russia government to end its unjustified expulsions of U.S. diplomats and staff,” said a State Department official on background. “Now more than ever, it is critical that our countries have the necessary diplomatic personnel in place to facilitate communication between our governments.”
‘A POTEMKIN MARKET OPENING’: The U.S. has called Russia’s decision to reopen the Moscow stock exchange “a charade: a Potemkin market opening.”
“After keeping its markets closed for nearly a month, Russia announced it will only allow 15% of listed shares to trade, foreigners are prohibited from selling their shares, and short selling in general has been banned,” said Daleep Singh, White House deputy national security adviser for international economics, in a statement.
“Russia has made clear they are going to pour government resources into artificially propping up the shares of companies that are trading. This is not a real market and not a sustainable model — which only underscores Russia’s isolation from the global financial system.”
REED: ‘ENOUGH WITH TRYING TO BLAME BIDEN’: The Democratic chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee took to the Senate floor yesterday to defend the pace of the Biden administration’s effort to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defeat the Russian invaders.
“The United States has led the international effort to identify capabilities the Ukrainian military can put to immediate use. And I think we have to emphasize immediate use. Transferring equipment that cannot be used effectively because of the combat conditions in the area or because the need to train or refit the equipment is not going to give the Ukrainian forces immediate assistance, and that’s the kind of assistance they need,” said Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island.
“Over the past few months, the State Department has worked with incredible speed to facilitate the transfer of U.S.-origin equipment from partner nations to Ukraine. However, all of these transfers — including Soviet-era aircraft and Soviet-era air defenses — occur on a bilateral basis, and ultimately it is a decision for each partner nation to make within their own internal channels.”
“So, to my colleagues on both sides of the aisle, enough with trying to blame the Biden administration at every step in this conflict. This crisis demands unity and strength, and I call on my colleagues to join me in condemning the one person who bears responsibility for the horrific violence against the people of Ukraine — Vladimir Putin.”
INEPT RUSSIAN INVASION COULD FORCE CHINA TO RECONSIDER TAIWAN PLANS, SENATOR SAYS
DON’T MAKE THAT MISTAKE AGAIN: Forty Republican members of the House and Senate Armed Services Committee are urging Biden to include a 5% increase above inflation in this year’s budget request for the Pentagon
“As you prepare your fiscal year 2023 budget for submission to Congress, we strongly encourage you to reject the approach you took last year when you proposed to cut defense spending below the rate of inflation,” the members wrote in a letter to Biden. “Over the last year, the threats to our national security have grown exponentially.”
Ultimately, a bipartisan agreement added $25 billion this year’s budget, bringing today’s defense spending to $788 billion.
“The security of the free world depends on a credible American military,” the GOP lawmakers argued. “We must work together to ensure the men and women of our Armed Services have the resources and support they need to successfully carry out their missions now and for decades to come.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: U.S. government: ‘Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine’
Washington Examiner: Russian forces ‘taking more defensive positions’ outside Kyiv: Pentagon
Washington Examiner: NATO chief expects allies to agree to deploy battle groups to eastern flank
Washington Examiner: NATO: Russian military may have lost up to 20% of forces
Washington Examiner: Germany comes through in sending aid to Ukraine, following pressure
Washington Examiner: Inept Russian invasion could force China to reconsider Taiwan plans, senator says
Washington Examiner: Russian tank-landing ship sunk, port burns in southern Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Ukraine in position to encircle Russian troops outside Kyiv, UK officials say
Washington Examiner: Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright dies at 84
New York Times: North Korea Tests New ICBM, Escalating Hostilities
Washington Post: Biden And Europeans To Announce Major Plan To Redirect Gas To Europe
Washington Post: In Ukrainian town, reality doesn’t match government boasts of victory over Russian forces
New York Times: Aiming to Limit Russia, Allies Boost Forces Near Ukraine
New York Times: U.S. Makes Contingency Plans Lest Russia Use Its Most Potent Weapons
Reuters: U.S. Sets Red Lines For China Helping Russia Dodge Sanctions
Air Force Magazine: SASC Chair Watching to See How F-35 Performs in Europe
Air Force Magazine: Finland Reassesses NATO Entry in Wake of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Air Force Magazine: Pilots Safe in Unrelated F-22, F-16 Crashes
USNI News: Navy Clear to Decommission 5 Cruisers, Unclear Which Ships Will Leave the Fleet
USNI News: Navy Exceeds 650 COVID-19 Vaccine Separations
Marine Corps Times: Black Socks, Nail Polish Officially Approved For Marines In Cammies
Inside Defense: Navy Over 10 Years Behind In Enabling Cloud Infrastructure
Naval Technology: BAE Systems To Develop ACV-R Variant For U.S. Marine Corps
19fortyfive.com: What Happens if Russia Strikes with a Tactical Nuclear Weapon?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Next Target: Moldova?
19fortyfive.com: The Great Russian Invasion of Ukraine Has Stalled Out
19fortyfive.com: Russia Was a Tank Superpower: The War in Ukraine Could End That
19fortyfive.com: Is China Secretly Buying Up Russian Gas And Hiding Moscow’s Money?
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: NATO’s Emergency Session Will Move Us Closer to What?
Calendar
THURSDAY | MARCH 24
8:15 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the conclusion of the emergency summit of NATO leaders attended by U.S. President Joe Biden https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to receive testimony on the posture of U.S. Northern Command and U.S. Southern Command, with Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command; and Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance,” with Christopher Del Corso, charge d’ affaires ad interim at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable
10 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual summit: “What Challenges Will the Intelligence Community Face in 2022 and Beyond?” with Space Force Maj. Gen. Leah Lauderback, director of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; Cynthia Bedell, director of communications and information sciences directorate at DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory; and Richard Naylor, senior cyber adviser to the director of the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency https://events.defenseone.com/intelligence-summit/registration/
11:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The specter of a nuclear incident in Europe,” with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
12 p.m. Brussels, Belgium — President Joe Biden attends and delivers remarks at the European Council Summit on “shared concerns about Ukraine including transatlantic efforts to impose economic costs on Russia, provide humanitarian support to those affected by the violence, and address other challenges related to the conflict.”
3 p.m. Brussels, Belgium — President Joe Biden holds a press conference at NATO headquarters following day of meeting with NATO, EU, and G7 leaders.
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies media conference call briefing: “Ukraine Update,” with Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the CSIS International Security Program; Emily Harding, deputy director of the CSIS International Security Program; James Andrew Lewis, director of the CSIS Strategic Technologies Program; Jacob Kurtzer, director of the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda; William Alan Reinsch, CSIS chair in international business; Gerard DiPippo, senior fellow at the CSIS Economics Program; and Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project Contact Andrew Schwartz, 202-775-3242 for access
4 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Indiana Chapter virtual discussion: “The cyber-attacks hitting Ukraine,” with Chris Kubecka, HypaSec CEO /www.eventbrite.com/e/afcea-indiana-chapter-monthly-talk
FRIDAY | MARCH 25
11 a.m. — U.S. Energy Association virtual discussion: “The Ukrainian War Comes Home – Energy and Minerals in Crisis,” with Nick Akins, chairman, president & CEO of American Electric Power; Lori Esposito Murray, president of the Conference Board’s Committee for Economic Development; Peter Londa, president & CEO of Tantalus Systems; Linda Gasparello of PBS; Markham Hislop of Energi Media; Jennifer Hiller of The Wall Street Journal; Kostis Gerapoulos of New European; USEA Acting Executive Director Sheila Hollis; and Llewellyn King, creator, executive producer & host of White House Chronicle https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
TUESDAY | MARCH 29
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The posture of U.S. European Command and U.S. Transportation Command,” with Gen. Tod Wolters, commander, U.S. European Command and supreme allied commander Europe; and Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander, U.S. Transportation Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 30
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges in Europe,” with testimony from Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, commander, U.S. European Command and supreme allied commander Europe. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army book webinar: Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare, with book author Seth Jones https://info.ausa.org
1 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual conversation: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action” with Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Air Force deputy chief of staff for plans and programs; Lt. Gen. William Liquori, deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, requirements, and analysis; and retired Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright, AFA president https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Patient Safety and Quality of Care in the Military Health System,” with testimony from: Dez Del Barba, U.S. Army Veteran; Derrick Luckey, father of Seaman Danyelle Luckey; Sharon Silas, director, GAO Health Care Team; Lt. Gen. Ronald Place, director, Defense Health Agency; Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle, Army surgeon general; Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham, Navy surgeon general; and Lt. Gen. Robert I. Miller, Air Force surgeon general https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | MARCH 31
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing: “Updates on Modernization of Conventional Ammunition Production,” with testimony from Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology; Army Gen. Edward Daly, commanding general, Army Materiel Command; Army Brig. Gen. William Boruff, program executive officer, Joint Program Executive Office, Armaments and Ammunition; Army Brig. Gen. Gavin Gardner, commanding general, Joint Munitions Command; Jason Gaines, senior vice president and general manager, munition systems, General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems; retired Army Brig. Gen. John McGuiness, president, American Ordnance, LLC; Brian Gathright, vice president and general manager, BAE Systems Ordnance Systems Inc; and Brett Flaugher, president, Olin-Winchester https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Seapower and Projection Forces and Readiness Joint hearing: “Posture and Readiness of the Mobility Enterprise,” with testimony from Air Force Gen. Jacqueline D. Van Ovost, commander, U.S. Transportation Command; and Lucinda Lessley, acting administrator, Maritime Administration https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | APRIL 1
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Intelligence and Special Operations hearing: “FY23 hearing to Review Department of Defense Strategy, Policy, and Programs for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant secretary for space policy; Deborah Rosenblum, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; Vice Adm. Collin Patrick Green, deputy commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; Rhys Williams, acting director, Defense Threat Reduction Agency and undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“He believes, Putin I mean, that Western leaders are weak. The way we have let Russia deter us and push us around with a nuclear threat confirms that in Putin’s mind. That’s more dangerous than sending MiGs into Ukraine or anything else we have been putting back on because we, quote-unquote, are afraid that Putin will escalate.”
John Herbst, senior director for the Atlantic Center’s Eurasia Center and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, speaking on CNN Wednesday.
