President Trump is tapping coronavirus fatigue in Wisconsin with a forward-looking message that strategists hope will work to recapture his rural base, pull voters from the margins, and secure a statewide victory on Election Day.
“The president is telling a lot of people things that they’d like to hear, which is, ‘We’re turning the corner, it’s getting better, we’re going to be closer to normal soon,'” said one veteran Republican strategist in the state. “People see this as, ‘Who’s going to make my life easier again?'”
By contrast, Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s message is closer to, “‘We’ve got a long row to hoe.'”
In an average of polls, Biden leads Trump by 5.4 percentage points, 49.7% to 44.3%, according to RealClearPolitics.
Marquette Law School poll director Charles Franklin said his poll had seen “a modest but consistent Biden lead of about 5 points” but pointed to a new poll of 800 likely voters surveyed between Oct. 13-21 by the University of Wisconsin-Madison that shows Biden ahead by 9 percentage points. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.73 percentage points.
The state recorded a record number of coronavirus deaths last week, 48, according to the Department of Health Services.
“It’s gonna be close. I think a lot of people are feeling marginally better than they were maybe three or four weeks ago,” this Wisconsin GOP source said. “But it doesn’t mean that anyone’s counting it as a victory yet.”
Brian Reisinger, a former adviser to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, cited challenges but was optimistic about Trump’s chances.
“The timing of [the coronavirus] is a challenging thing that would be outside of a lot of people’s control,” he said. “And then, there’s also the general trends,” such as a shift in support away from Trump in the suburbs.
However, “in Wisconsin, the shift of the suburbs has not been as pronounced as you’ve seen in other states,” Reisinger said.
He pointed to “a silent majority of not only conservatives, but a few more swing voters than the pundits necessarily think is ready to mobilize on behalf of the president” and said that “on the ground, it still feels like that is very much possible.”
Trump on Tuesday will deliver remarks in western Wisconsin, in West Salem, La Crosse County, Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District. Pence on Wednesday will visit Mosinee, in Marathon County, which Trump won by more than 12,000 votes in 2016.
“The rural voter is still going to come home to Trump,” GOP strategist Jesse Garza said, citing the more than 2 million doors that he said Republicans had knocked on in Wisconsin.
Still, “nobody is under the illusion this is going to be a breakaway for either campaign,” Garza said.
Wisconsin’s 7th District was pivotal to Trump’s 2016 win, and along with the 3rd Congressional District, typifies the support garnered by Trump from the state’s blue-collar workers, voters who “like the message of ‘America First,'” Garza said. “Those are the ones who are going to bring it home on Nov. 3.”
The 7th District spans a massive 20 counties, including Marathon County, a one-time Democratic Party stronghold that has “trended more and more Republican each successive election cycle,” GOP strategist Keith Gilkes said. Pence will hold a rally there on Wednesday.
One longtime strategist from the state said he knows of special interest groups successfully targeting conservative or likely Republican voters who did not vote in 2016.
The Trump campaign announced a new $6 million advertising buy for Wisconsin and neighboring Michigan and Minnesota that touts an economic message, makes appeals to seniors, and offers state-specific messaging that, in Wisconsin, will focus on support for law enforcement and countering the “defund the police” movement.
Spending will also include a Spanish-language ad buy and advertising targeting blacks, including in Milwaukee.
One Republican strategist called the last-minute ads a “Hail Mary,” telling the Washington Examiner: “The cake is baked.”
Gilkes said he sees an opportunity to rope in late deciders who were “pivotal in their vote for Trump over Hillary Clinton” in 2016.
Last-minute advertising keeps the base motivated and can draw out voters on the margins who may not always cast a ballot, Gilkes added.
Said one GOP strategist, “My question is always who’s more motivated and who’s doing a better job? Is it the people that are fired up on behalf of their candidate, or is it the people that are fired up in opposition to their opponent? I don’t know.”
