Military action against Iran seems increasingly likely as intelligence and forensic evidence collected in the wake of the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil installations suggests Iranian responsibility. While diplomats, intelligence analysts, and politicians can debate the wisdom of military strikes, if the United States (or Saudi) government makes such a decision, what might be the primary targets?
Here are five:
- Kharg Oil Terminal. Tankers seldom sail into port, but rather load oil from offshore islands or terminals. Kharg is Iran’s primary oil terminal, through which more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass. Knock Kharg offline, and discussions about sanctions become academic, at least for the next year or two.
- Jask Naval Base. Jask, a small town which lies outside of the Strait of Hormuz, has become Iran’s major submarine base. Its proximity to the world’s shipping routes and relative isolation make it a logical target should retaliation be limited and focused on protecting shipping.
- Bandar Abbas Naval Base. Bandar Abbas is Iran’s largest city on the Persian Gulf and home to its largest naval base. Not only is it just a few dozen miles from the Strait of Hormuz, but its airfield also poses a threat to international shipping.
- Abu Musa and the Tonb Islands. Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tonb are strategic islands which Iran seized from the United Arab Emirates as the British withdrew in 1971. Today, Abu Musa is also site of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base and, allegedly, a chemical weapons depot. The importance of all three islands lay in their territorial water which constrains international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Farsi Island. Another Persian Gulf island hosting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base, the waters off Farsi Island were the site of the seizure of U.S. sailors in 2016. Denying or destroying the Iranian presence on Farsi Island would help protect shipping in the northern Persian Gulf.
No military action is a cakewalk, and it may not be wise, as the Iranian leadership may want to receive a punch in order to rally nationalist Iranians around the flag.
Even limited strikes (the equivalent of Operation Praying Mantis or Operation Desert Fox) require knocking out opponent air defenses and disrupting command-and-control. U.S. forces likely would not target Bushehr because its nuclear reactor is loaded with fuel, nor would the broader nuclear program necessarily be the target of first resort, though it might be included in a larger operation.
U.S. forces might also need to help shield Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait from any retaliation should Iran respond, for example, with a missile salvo lobbed toward Riyadh, Kuwait City, Abu Dhabi, or Dubai.
Regardless, recent decades in which Iranian leaders have largely been immune to the consequence of their provocations may have made Iranian leaders and the Revolutionary Guards overconfident. The Saudi military is a question mark, but the Iranians may underestimate just how superior the U.S. military can be.
Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner‘s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.
