ZELENSKY’S ‘WINGS’ TOUR: After visits to London and Paris, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is wrapping up his tour of European capitals in Brussels, where he will address the European Union’s legislature. Zelensky is on the hunt for fighter jets, and, like the quest for main battle tanks, he needs one Western ally to break the ice. Zelensky’s best bet seems to be Great Britain, where he began his tour yesterday with a speech to the British Parliament, a meeting with King Charles, and new commitments for pilot training from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
“I appeal to you and the world with simple and yet most important words: Combat aircrafts – for Ukraine! Wings for freedom!” Zelensky said in his speech to British MPs. He presented Speaker of the House of Commons Sir Lindsay Hoyle with a helmet of one of the most celebrated Ukrainian pilots, inscribed with the message, “We have freedom, give us wings to protect it.”
“Leaving the British Parliament two years ago, I thanked you for delicious English tea,” Zelensky said in closing. “I will be leaving the Parliament today thanking all of you in advance – for powerful English planes.”
UKRAINIAN PILOTS TO RECEIVE FIGHTER JET TRAINING UNDER NEW PLAN, UK PRIME MINISTER SAYS
SUNAK: ‘NOTHING IS OFF THE TABLE’: At an evening news conference with Zelensky at a British Army base with a tank as a backdrop, Sunak noted that the U.K. was the first country to break the deadlock over sending tanks to Ukraine, and hinted that British planes could well be next.
“Nothing is off the table,” said Sunak, who announced that Britain would extend its training of Ukrainian troops to include pilots for fighter jets. “We must arm Ukraine in the short term, but we must bolster Ukraine for the long term.”
“The training will ensure pilots are able to fly sophisticated NATO-standard fighter jets in the future,” said Sunak’s office in a statement.
Britain is reportedly looking to provide Typhoon jets, but only after Ukrainian pilots get months of training and supply chain issues are worked out. In France, where President Emmanuel Macron honored him with the Grand Cross of France’s Legion of Honor, Zelensky was said to be requesting older Mirage jets that Ukrainian pilots could adapt to quickly.
ZELENSKY MEETS WITH KING CHARLES III IN FIRST VISIT TO UK SINCE INVASION
ISW: ‘THE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE HAS BEGUN’: Zelensky’s desperate push for more arms comes as the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War’s latest assessment has an ominous warning that, bolstered by hundreds of thousands of conscript troops, Russia is making advances in the eastern Luhansk region.
“Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk,” the ISW reports, noting, “The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week.”
The assessment says that “conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances,” and that Russian commanders appear to have “fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line,” and are “reportedly advancing against Ukrainian defenses.”
“The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains,” the ISW concludes.
OPINION: OF COURSE ZELENSKY WENT TO BRITAIN BEFORE BRUSSELS
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HAPPENING TODAY: The entire U.S. Senate will be updated today on the Chinese spy balloon incursion and subsequent shootdown in a classified briefing that will include details of previous balloon surveillance, the extent of the Chinese program, and a further explanation for the decision to allow the balloon to complete its transit over the United States before being brought down in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina.
BIDEN: ‘I TOLD, IT’S NOW PUBLIC’: In an interview with the PBS NewsHour, President Joe Biden rejected criticism from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), vice chairman of the Intelligence Committee, that his failure to inform the American public about the balloon when it was first detected amounted to “dereliction of duty.”
“You know, there were several of these balloons that during the last administration they didn’t even know were there,” Biden told PBS’s Judy Woodruff. “They didn’t even do anything about them. So, look, I just think that the idea that it was a dereliction of duty, I think, is a bizarre notion. China knows exactly that, what the deal is with us.”
“Look. I told, it’s now public,” Biden said. “I told the military I wanted to shoot it down when it was safe to do it. They said it was unsafe to do it over land. They said they can learn a lot in the meantime by watching it go across the country. As soon as they had a chance to shoot it down over water, they did and they recovered major pieces of it to determine if we can learn anything from what they garnered and what kind of equipment they had.”
MYSTERY WRAPPED IN A SPY BALLOON: WHY DID CHINA BLOW UP BLINKEN VISIT?
DOD: ‘A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY’: At a briefing yesterday, the Pentagon revealed more details about the previous balloon incidents, defended the decision to delay the shootdown for days, and indicated the “domain awareness gap” that allowed Chinese spy balloons to go undetected for several years has since been addressed.
“This is what we assess as part of a larger Chinese surveillance balloon program,” said Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary. “This is a program that’s been operated for several years. What we do know is that in some cases where some of these balloons previously had not been identified, subsequent intelligence analysis did enable us to indicate that these were Chinese balloons.”
Without providing details, Ryder said the so-called “awareness gap” that made it hard to detect slow-flying balloons in the upper stratosphere has been fixed, as evidenced by the immediate detection of the latest balloon as it approached Alaska. “I think we are very confident that we’ll be able to detect these kinds of capabilities,” he said. “I would not be surprised that the PRC starts to reevaluate its dirigible collection program.”
In defending the decision to allow the balloon to float over the U.S. for days, Ryder said tracking it provided “a unique opportunity for us to observe this balloon and its characteristics very closely,” adding, “Needless to say we gained a lot of information on this and I believe we’ll continue to gain more.”
FOUR PREVIOUS INCURSIONS: The Pentagon says the reason Trump administration officials denied any knowledge of the incidents that happened on their watch is simply that the U.S. intelligence agencies didn’t figure it out until last year.
“This wasn’t information that we necessarily had previously, but again, our analysts have been able to, over time, put the pieces together and learn a lot more about this program,” said Ryder. “Our awareness and understanding of this capability has increased over the last couple of years.”
Of the four known previous events, three happened during the Trump years, and one during Biden’s first year in office. “I’m not going to be able to go into a lot of details other than these four are the ones that we assess went over U.S. soil,” said Ryder. “And I’m not going to go over specifically what they tracked other than what we’ve acknowledged publicly — that we know that they were looking to surveil strategic sites, to include some of our strategic bases in the continental United States.”
ANOTHER CHINESE DENIAL: At today’s regular Foreign Ministry briefing, spokeswoman Mao Ning scoffed at the Pentagon’s description of a vast balloon spying program that violated airspace on five continents.
“The U.S. side claims that this balloon is part of a fleet of aircraft. I do not know that,” Mao said. “I think this may be part of the U.S. side of the information and public opinion warfare against China. The international community can see clearly who is the world’s largest spy surveillance monitoring country.”
CHINA’S DUMB SPY BALLOON LIE UNDERCUTS BEIJING’S ANTI-AMERICAN NARRATIVE
N. KOREA BOASTS ‘NUKE FOR NUKE’ IN MASSIVE MILITARY DISPLAY: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un showed off his growing arsenal of long-range missiles in the annual parade in Pyongyang marking the country’s 75th birthday.
The state-run Korean Central News agency described the display of tactical nuclear weapons in effusive prose, noting that North Korea was prepared to go “nuke for nuke” in an “all-out-confrontation,” with potential adversaries.
“The columns of ICBMs appeared in the square resounded with the enthusiastic cheers of the people full of pride and self-confidence, demonstrating the signal development of the military capability and tremendous nuclear strike capability of the DPRK,” the KCNA reported. “The square was full of the high spirit of the fighters of the strategic missile units prepared for fulfilling their strategic mission anytime, true to the order of the leader only.”
Among the missiles on display was what was believed to be a new intercontinental ballistic missile that would use solid-fuel, which would make it harder to detect because it would not have to be fueled on the launch pad.
The event also was noteworthy for the appearance of Kim’s second-born daughter, Kim Ju Ae, who is believed to be around 10 years old, and his wife Ri Sol Ju. The recent appearances of what the state media refers to as Kim’s “beloved” daughter are seen as a possible sign she’s being groomed for a future leadership role.
NORTH KOREA SHOWCASES MISSILES DESIGNED TO REACH THE US AT MASSIVE MILITARY PARADE
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian pilots to receive fighter jet training under new plan, UK prime minister says
Washington Examiner: Zelensky meets with King Charles III in first visit to UK since invasion
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Of course Zelensky went to Britain before Brussels
Washington Examiner: China’s dumb spy balloon lie undercuts Beijing’s anti-American narrative
Washington Examiner: Mystery wrapped in a spy balloon: Why did China blow up Blinken visit?
Washington Examiner: North Korea showcases missiles designed to reach the US at massive military parade
Washington Post: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Gives Clearest Sign Daughter Is Heir Apparent
CNN: Initial Classified Balloon Report Wasn’t Flagged As Urgent, Drawing Criticism
South China Morning Post: Japan Says It Has ‘Legal Right’ To Destroy Any Foreign Balloon As It Probes Reports Of Past Sightings
USNI News: Navy Contracted Salvage Ship Underway to Collect Chinese Spy Balloon Remains
AP: U.S. General To Aggressors: Allies Are Battle-Ready In Asia
Defense News: SpaceX’s Shotwell Says Ukraine ‘Weaponized’ Starlink Network
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Can Achieve a Strategic Win over Russia. The West Must Step Up
Defense One: Memo Details Effort to Boost Production of Weapons Sent to Ukraine
Space News: Mysterious Russian Satellite Breaks Up in Orbit, Generating Cloud of Debris
Wall Street Journal: Russia Sacrifices Soldiers For Inches
19fortyfive.com: China’s J-20 and Russia’s Su-57: Not Really 5th Generation Stealth Fighters?
19fortyfive.com: Russia Has No Faith in Its T-14 Armata Tank
19fortyfive.com: Is Russia’s Su-57 Felon Stealth Fighter a Total Bust?
Task & Purpose: Future of defense spending a hot topic among Republicans
Air & Space Forces Magazine: For Defense Industry to Surge Production, Here’s What It Needs, Leaders Tell Congress
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Indiana ANG ‘Blacksnakes’ Prepare to Say Goodbye to the A-10
Air & Space Forces Magazine: C-17s Rush U.S. Rescue Teams to Türkiye After Earthquake
Defense Info: Can America Learn Lessons From Afghanistan and Ukraine?”
Calendar
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 9
8:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Future of War: Is the Pentagon Prepared to Deter and Defeat America’s Adversaries?” with Chris Brose, author; Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director, Center on Cyber Technology and Innovation, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Peter Singer, strategist, New America and managing partner, Useful Fiction LLC https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/citi-hearing-future-war
8:45 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “U.S. Extended Deterrence,” with Gary Samore, director, Brandeis University’s Center for Middle East Studies https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-64-us-extended-deterrence
10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Building a More Resilient Indo-Pacific Security Architecture,” with Assistant Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner; and Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for South and Southeast Asia Lindsey Ford https://www.hudson.org/events/building-more-resilient-indo-pacific-security-architecture
10:15 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “Oversight on Chinese Spy Balloon,” with testimony from: Melissa Dalton, assistant defense secretary for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs; and Jedidiah Royal, principal deputy assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs http://appropriations.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Evaluating U.S.-China Policy in the Era of Strategic Competition,” with testimony from Wendy Sherman, deputy secretary of state https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/evaluating-us-china-policy
10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Georgian Defense Minister Juansher Burchuladze at the Pentagon
11 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee votes on the nominations of Radha Iyengar Plumb to be a deputy defense undersecretary; and Laura Taylor-Kale to be an assistant defense secretary http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
11:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “China and Strategic Stability in Space: Pathways to Peace in an Era of U.S. – China Strategic Competition,” with Associate NASA Administrator for Technology, Policy, and Strategy Bhavya Lal; Bruce MacDonald, adjunct professor in international studies at Johns Hopkins University; Victoria Samson, Washington office director at the Secure World Foundation; Scott Pace, director of George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute; and Carla Freeman, USIP senior expert https://www.usip.org/events/china-and-strategic-stability-space
12 p.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Weaponization of the Federal Government Subcommittee hearing on “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” with testimony from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA); Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI); Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD); former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI); former FBI agent Thomas Baker; former FBI agent Nicole Parker; Jonathan Turley, professor at George Washington University Law Center; and Elliot Williams, principal with the Raben Group http://judiciary.house.gov
1:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute virtual discussion: “Deterring Russia at Sea in the High North,” with Navy Adm. Daryl Caudle, commander of Fleet Forces Command; Navy Vice Adm. Daniel Dwyer, commander of the Second Fleet and Joint Forces Command-Norfolk; Assistant Chief of the Naval Staff for Policy Rear Adm. Anthony Rimington; retired Navy Adm. James Foggo, dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy; Chris Kofron, director for Russia at the National Security Council; and former USAID Administrator Mark Green, president, director and CEO of the Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/deterring-russia-sea-high-north
1:45 p.m. — Center for a New American Security fireside chat: “UK’s 2023 defense priorities,” with MP James Heappey, U.K. Minister of State (Minister for the Armed Forces), moderated by Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow, director of CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-the-rt-hon-james-heappey
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 10
10 a.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar: “Threat or Hot Air? The Chinese Spy Balloon,” with retired Adm. Michael Rogers, former commander, U.S. Cyber Command; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former commander, U.S. Air Forces Central Command; and John Hannah, senior fellow, JINSA https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
3 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual and in-person hybrid event: “A Conversation with Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein,” with Lise Grande, USIP president and CEO; and Sarhang Hamasaeed, director, USIP Middle East Programs https://www.usip.org/events/conversation-iraq
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13
TBA Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Stimson Center virtual and in-person discussion: “The End of History? Global Implications of the War in Ukraine,” with Marie Jourdain, visiting fellow, Atlantic Council; Michael Kofman, research program director, CNA; Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow, Center for New American Security; Michael Mazarr, senior political scientist, RAND Corporation; and Alex Ward, national security reporter, Politico https://www.stimson.org/event/the-end-of-history
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution virtual and in-person event: “The U.S. Air Force and American defense strategy,” with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr.; Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings; and Melanie Sisson, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-air-force
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14
TBA Brussels, Belgium — Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group followed by the beginning of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event with Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston https://ausa.force.com/OnlineCommunity/s/community-event
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower forum “Space infrastructure, space capabilities and defining the threat environment,” with John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/feb-14
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Securing Cyberspace: Hardening America’s Software against Foreign Digital Sabotage,” Rep. Tony Gonzales, (R-TX); Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; Jason Weiss, chief software officer, Conquest Cyber; Cliff Bean, director of Navy missions, Defense Sector, Peraton https://www.hudson.org/preview-link
11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Zoom webinar to release new report: “Innovating for Great Power Competition: An Examination of Service and Joint Innovation Efforts,” with authors Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president and CEO; Evan Montgomery, CSBA director of research and studies; and Tyler Hacker, CSBA analyst https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17
TBA Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19 https://securityconference.org
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I would not be surprised that the PRC starts to reevaluate its dirigible collection program.”
Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, in a briefing for reporters Wednesday.
