President Trump and presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden both want Pennsylvania in their column on Election Day.
Trump studied at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and Biden was born in Scranton further north. But the White House hopefuls are after more than just bragging rights. They’re seeking Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes as they race to 270 once voting in the Nov. 3 general election finishes.
Biden’s trip to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Thursday, his second since the COVID-19 outbreak sidelined his campaign, underscores the commonwealth’s mathematical importance to his bid. The city is also conveniently up the road from his property in Wilmington, Delaware, where he’s been diligently obeying a state stay-at-home order.
Biden first traveled to Philadelphia last week for his speech addressing the racial tensions that erupted across the country after George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The outing was his first out-of-state, in-person event on the trail since March.
Now, with Thursday’s visit, it’s clear Biden’s intent on returning Pennsylvania to the Democratic ledger after it voted for Trump in 2016, the first time the commonwealth’s supported a Republican nominee since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Pennsylvania remains a sore point for many Democrats. Unlike Wisconsin and Michigan, which 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton largely ignored, her campaign poured heavy resources into Pennsylvania, and she visited frequently — and still lost.
Early head-to-head polls show Biden up in Pennsylvania. RealClearPolitics still has the two-term vice president ahead by an average of 3.4 percentage points. However, recent surveys, including one by Priorities USA, suggest he hasn’t cemented his lead.
Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC, predicts Pennsylvania could be too close to call with a 3-point drop in turnout among white voters without a college degree and minority voters, Chairman Guy Cecil said in a Wednesday press briefing.
Similarly, Trump’s allies’ investment in Pennsylvania highlights their hopes of holding on to the electoral prize, according to Cecil.
Priorities USA calculated that Trump-associated entities spent 18% of their funds in Pennsylvania in April and May combined, more than any other state. For instance, they’ve doled out $5.83 million on television ads since April, more than their total national buys, as well as outlays made in Florida and Wisconsin.
“We’re seeing more and more of their spending playing defense,” Cecil told reporters.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania Democrats are confident that Trump’s 2016 performance was simply an aberration, at least publicly.
In 2018, decisive margins of victory in Philadelphia and its suburbs helped Democrats Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey with their reelections, on top of their statewide voter registration advantage. Thanks to redistricting ordered by the state Supreme Court, congressional candidates were able to even out the delegation’s partisan divide too, from 12 Republicans and six Democrats to nine lawmakers apiece.
Yet, two central Pennsylvania Republicans in competitive contests withstood the so-called blue wave” that crashed down on Trump elsewhere in the country. And a year later, the GOP won county government majorities in six western Pennsylvania jurisdictions that had been Democratic-leaning. Those results partially offset Democratic wins for local offices across the state, in the traditionally Republican Philadelphia suburbs.
For former Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire, western Pennsylvania had become more conservative. But Altmire, who represented south-central Pennsylvania from 2007 until 2013, said 2020 was not a “normal” election given Trump, the coronavirus, and Floyd’s death.
“The president is going to do very poorly in the Philadelphia area, which makes up a large portion of the statewide vote. And in the western part of the state, he’s going to greatly underperform what other Republicans have done because his image has become tarnished,” the ex-lawmaker told the Washington Examiner.
Altmire conceded he might revise his outlook if the economy rebounds. However, he added that 13% unemployment was high, and stock market gains don’t necessarily boost everyone who’s going to cast a ballot.
“Pennsylvania is the least of their worries at this point. Red states, along with Florida and others that they won in 2016, are very much in play. This has the potential to be a landslide loss for the president,” he said.
Former Republican Pennsylvania Rep. Phil English was more skeptical of Biden’s chances than Altmire but agreed the former vice president and 36-year Delaware senator had a “slight edge.” English warned that neither party nor candidate had “achieved purchase yet.” Biden’s team still needs to reach out to liberals as lingering primary tensions remain a source of division, English said. Republicans should also unify, he said.
In particular, English believed both camps needed to sharpen their messages because their current ads were “missing the point.”
“Biden ads are attempting to challenge Trump with some of the voters who went for Trump last time and paint Biden as a local phenomenon. I’m not sure that they’re particularly effective,” he said. “Trump’s ads are trying to hit Biden on the substantive issue that he is averse to the state’s energy industry. That ignores the fact that the energy industry right now isn’t employing or funding as many households as it was.”
Trump was working against other political headwinds as well, English explained. He echoed how typical Democratic strongholds in western Pennsylvania were producing Republican support, while usual Republican hot spots in southeastern Pennsylvania were turning blue.
“Frankly, part of the challenge for Trump is southeastern Pennsylvania is more populous,” he said. “And the other thing is a lot of Trump’s support four years ago was essentially anti-Hillary and anti-status quo, voting for a disrupter. And it’s not clear in this environment that people want a disrupter.”
