‘EXQUISITELY PLANNED AND EXECUTED’: After briefing members of Congress behind closed doors on Capitol Hill yesterday, U.S. Central Command chief Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie made his way over to the Pentagon, where he provided reporters with an unclassified tick-tock of the how the U.S. raid to get Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi went down.
McKenzie, who used to appear regularly in the briefing room back when he was director of the joint staff and the Pentagon did regular briefings, described the U.S. commando raid as “exquisitely planned and executed,” in a 20-minute after-action report, complete with maps and video clips.
Here are seven key takeaways:
ISIS IS ‘DISRUPTED,’ NOT DEFEATED: McKenzie said it’s only a matter of time before Baghdadi, who was losing influence in his isolated compound near the Turkish border, is replaced with someone else, and ISIS attempts a comeback.
“We’re under no illusions that it’s going to go away just because we killed Baghdadi,” he said. “Suspect at the highest levels they’ll be a little disrupted; it will take them some time to reestablish someone to lead the organization, and during that period of time their actions may be a little bit disjointed.”
“Since it’s an ideology, you’re never going to be able to completely stamp it out,” he said. “And, in fact, our definition of long term success against ISIS and other entities like ISIS is not the complete absence of that ideology, but rather its existence at a level where local security forces, wherever in the world it exists, can deal with it.”
ISIS WILL SEEK ‘RETRIBUTION’: ISIS, McKenzie said, remains a dangerous foe and will likely try to strike back. “We suspect they will try some form of retribution attack, and we are postured and prepared for that.”
“We don’t see a bloodless future, because, unfortunately, this ideology is going to be out there, but we think there’s a way to get to a point where it’s going to be less and less effective over time. “
NO QUESTION IT WAS HIM: McKenzie confirmed that the Defense Intelligence Agency had Baghdadi’s DNA on file from when he was a U.S. prisoner held at Camp Bucca in Iraq in 2004.
The DNA was a perfect match. “The analysis showed a direct match between the samples and produced a level of certainty that the remains belonged to Baghdadi, of one in 104 septillion, which is certainly beyond a shadow of a doubt,” McKenzie said.
After the DNA analysis, what was left of Baghdadi was buried at sea within 24 hours of his death, in accordance with the law of armed conflict.
THE SIX PEOPLE KILLED WORE SUICIDE VESTS: Baghdadi wasn’t the only one wearing a suicide vest. Five other ISIS members, four women and one man, also had explosives strapped to their bodies, and attempted to approach the U.S. assault force, and ignored commands to surrender.
They “were behaving in a threatening manner with suicide vests approaching the raid force,” said McKenzie. “That causes you to make some decisions, particularly when they don’t respond to Arabic language commands to stop, warning shots, and the progression of escalation that, you know, that our special operators are so very good at.”
“A total of six ISIS members died on the objective,” he said, along with two children killed by Baghdadi when he blew himself up. Two ISIS fighters were taken into custody, and whisked away by U.S. forces, who after checking for weapons and explosives later released the non-combatants.
“The group was treated humanely at all times, and included 11 children,” said McKenzie. “I want to make it clear that despite the violent nature of the raid and the high-profile nature of this assault, every effort was made to avoid civilian casualties and to protect the children that we suspected would be at the compound.”
NO IDEA WHERE TRUMP’S ‘WHIMPERING’ ACCOUNT CAME FROM: While President Trump described Baghdadi as “whimpering and crying and screaming all the way,” McKenzie became the third senior leader with direct access to all available information on the raid to be unable to substantiate the President’s claim.
Like Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who were both in the situation room with the president, McKenzie could shed no light on where Trump got that vivid description of Baghdadi’s final moments.
“I’m not able to confirm anything else about his last seconds. I just can’t confirm that one way or another,” he said when asked about Trump’s account. “He crawled into a hole with two small children, and blew himself up while his people stayed on the ground; so you can deduce what kind of person it is based on that activity.”
“I can tell you that we believe Baghdadi actually may have fired from his hole in his last moments,” he added later in the briefing.
TRUMP’S WITHDRAWAL ORDER DID NOT AFFECT THE TIMING: McKenzie forcefully denied that Trump’s Oct. 6 order to withdraw U.S troops from the Syrian border with Turkey affected the timing of the Baghdadi mission, as some have speculated.
“Absolutely not,” he said. “We chose the time based on a variety of factors: weather, certainty, lunar data, a variety of things like that.” The Special Operations forces and their helicopters had been “pre-staged” in Syria ahead of the raid, but McKenzie insisted that having access to a launching pad in Syria was not a prerequisite for success.
“While it might have been convenient to use bases there, the United States military has the capability to go almost anywhere and support ourselves even at great distances,” he said. “So that was not a limiting factor. We struck because the time was about right to do it then, given the totality of the intelligence and the other situation, and the other factors that would affect the raid force going in and coming out.”
CONAN THE DOG IS OKAY: McKenzie also clarified the status of Conan, the canine hero of the mission, a four-year veteran of the Special Operations Command’s K-9 program, who chased Baghdadi down a dead-end tunnel.
“He was injured by exposed live electrical cables in the tunnel after Baghdadi detonated his vest beneath the compound,” McKenzie said. “I will also note he has been returned to duty.”
When a reporter asked about the $25 million bounty the U.S. had put on Baghdadi’s head, chief Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman joked, “That’s going to go to the dog.”
President Trump tweeted out the formerly classified name of the dog along with a digitally altered photo that shows Trump awarding a Medal of Honor to the Belgian Malinois. ”Very cute recreation,” he said, “but the ‘live’ version of Conan will be leaving the Middle East for the White House sometime next week!”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper will welcome visiting Australian Defense Minister Linda Reynolds to the Pentagon at 3:30 this afternoon. Esper and Reynolds are expected to take a few questions from pool reporters.
NORTH KOREA FIRES MORE ‘PROJECTILES’: With nuclear talks stalled between Washington and Pyongyang, North Korea is shooting off more weaponry.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that ‘two unidentified projectiles” were fired toward the East Sea, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency.
“The projectiles were fired from areas in South Pyongan Province in the afternoon,” the JCS said in a brief release, adding, “Our military is monitoring the situation in case of additional launches and maintaining a readiness posture.”
It is the 12th North Korean weapons test this year. On Oct. 2, North Korea tested a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile, the Pukguksong-3, from waters off its east coast.
AFGHANISTAN CASUALTIES UP: In its latest quarterly report to Congress, the Pentagon’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction says civilian casualties in Afghanistan rose significantly due to a high number of terrorist and insurgent attacks prior to the presidential elections.
The NATO-led Operation Resolute Support reported a 39% increase in civilian casualties from June-September, compared to the same period last year.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan says the vast majority of those casualties were a result of Taliban attacks.
The report, released today, comes as the war in Afghanistan enters its 19th year.
HERITAGE MILITARY INDEX: The Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense has released its “2020 Index of U.S. Military Strength,” which concludes the U.S. military “is only marginally able to meet the demands of defending America’s vital national interests.”
The 2020 Index also rates the overall global threat environment as “aggressive” and “gathering” and says the “aggregated threat “ to U.S. security interests is “high.”
“Military modernization efforts implemented by Russia and China have borne fruit. These adversaries are investing in capabilities which seek to offset American strengths and military advantages,” said Republican Sen. Joni Ernst in remarks accompanying the release of the report.
“Russia has turned an army of rag-tag conscripts following the collapse of the Soviet Union into a modern and professional fighting force. It is investing in technologies like hypersonic weapons, disruptive cyber capabilities, and modern aircraft…all with the goal of projecting Russian power around the world,” she said.
“And then there’s China. China has rapidly invested in anti-ship ballistic missiles, hypersonics, and artificial intelligence while significantly growing the size and capability of their naval forces. The goal: challenge American primacy in the Pacific.”
“Folks, we need to take a hard look at systems that are no longer applicable to the current or the future fight,” Ernst said. “At the end of the day, American ingenuity will become critical in evolving how we fight.”
SMITH: DEFENDING THE OIL IS LEGIT: House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, a Democrat, has endorsed President Trump’s decision to reposition U.S. forces in Syria to protect oil fields in the eastern part of the country, while criticizing his overall Syria policy as “incoherent.”
“A part of what they are doing in protecting those oil fields is trying to make sure that they don’t fall into the hands of ISIS, because when ISIS controlled this territory, one of the things that they did was they took that oil and they sold it on the black market to make money and finance their terrorist ambitions,” Smith said on CNN yesterday.
“So, yes, I do think it’s an acceptable mission, but it is an incoherent policy,” he added. “Because if you are willing to show up and protect the oil fields from ISIS, why were you not willing to protect the Kurds, who are the single most important group in fighting ISIS? That’s the inconsistency and the policy that’s deeply troubling.”
NON-COMBAT DEATH: The Pentagon has announced the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq. Sgt. Nathaniel G. Irish, 23, of Billings, Montana, died Wednesday of a “non-combat related incident” at Camp Taji, according to an official release.
Irish was assigned to the 25th Brigade Support Battalion, 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, Fort Wainwright, Alaska.
The Rundown
New York Times: Both Coming and Going, U.S. Troops in Syria May Total Nearly the Same
Defense News: US-Turkey alliance in downward spiral as Congress mulls sanctions
Stars and Stripes: NATO Chief Lauds Ukraine’s Pullback Of Weapons In The East
Reuters: Pompeo Says U.S. Must Confront China’s Communist Party
Breaking Defense: U.S. Forces Untrained, Unready For Russian, Chinese Jamming
Wall Street Journal: China Is About To Switch On 5G. It’s Behind The U.S., But Not For Long
Marine Corps Times: Parris Island Marines to start training with next gender-integrated boot camp class
USNI News: SECNAV Spencer: Carrier Ford Challenges Tied to Costs Caps, Requirements Process
Seapower Magazine: USS Gerald R. Ford Completes Post-Shakedown Availability
The Diplomat: Russia’s First Upgraded Borei-Class Submarine Test Fires Bulava Ballistic Missile
Washington Post: Backlash Against Amazon Paved Way For Microsoft’s Pentagon Contract Win
Inside Defense: Navy Planning For One-Year CR
Defense One: Opinion: The Pentagon Doesn’t Need a ‘Skinny’ Authorization Bill
AP: Nationals top Astros 6-2 in Game 7 to win 1st World Series title
Calendar
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 31
8:15 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on U.S. defense and foreign policy with Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events
11 a.m. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville provide remarks at a Hall of Heroes induction ceremony for Medal of Honor recipient Army Master Sgt. Matthew O. Williams in the Pentagon Auditorium
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Syria in the Gray Zone,” with Dana Stroul, co-chair of the Syria Study Group; Michael Singh, co-chair of the Syria Study Group; Ibrahim al-Assil, nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute; Coner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Turkish Research Program; former Lt. Gen. Charles Cleveland, senior fellow in the West Point Combating Terrorism Center; and Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program https://www.csis.org/events/syria-gray-zone
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 7
8 a.m. 2201 G St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, undersecretary of energy for nuclear security and NNSA administrator. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We don’t see a bloodless future, because, unfortunately, this ideology is going to be out there, but we think there’s a way to get to a point where it’s going to be less and less effective over time.”
U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Frank McKenzie, briefing reporters on the future of ISIS after the death of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
