NORTH KOREA UPS ANTE: A day after North Korea fired off some two dozen short-range ballistic missiles in a display of pique over U.S. and South Korea military drills, Pyongyang pulled out its latest and greatest intercontinental missile, the Hwasong-17, and launched it in the direction of Japan.
The ICBM, presumably with the range to reach the United States, ended in failure after its second stage separation, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, but not before triggering alarms and mobile phone alerts in Japan.
The latest provocation comes as the U.S. and South Korea are wrapping up a week of large-scale exercises dubbed Vigilant Storm, involving thousands of troops and 240 warplanes. The U.S. said the exercises are purely defensive, while North Korea condemned the war games as preparation for an attack on the North.
QUICK CONDEMNATION: The ICBM test drew immediate condemnation from South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.
“This launch, in addition to the launch of multiple other ballistic missiles this week, is a flagrant violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions and needlessly raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region,” said National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson in a statement. “The President and his national security team are assessing the situation in close coordination with our allies and partners. … The United States will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and Republic of Korea and Japanese allies.”
The State Department also issued a statement calling on “all countries,” a veiled reference to Russia and China, to fully implement U.N. Security Council resolutions aimed at keeping North Korea from obtaining “technologies and materials” for its missile programs. “Together, with the international community, we call on the DPRK to refrain from further provocations and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue,” the statement said.
‘A NEW NORMAL’: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets this morning at the Pentagon with his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jong-sup, in a previously scheduled Security Consultative Meeting.
Austin and Lee have a joint press conference scheduled for 12:15 p.m.
“North Korea’s multiple missile tests, combined with artillery firing or warplanes exercises, will likely become a new normal,” said Ellen Kim, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who predicted yesterday that an ICBM test was likely to follow Wednesday’s missile barrage.
“CSIS data shows that North Korea responds belligerently to U.S.-ROK military exercises when there is no ongoing diplomacy taking place among the parties concerned,” she wrote, noting like many other experts that a seventh nuclear test could be next, possibly coinciding with the Nov. 8 midterm elections in the U.S.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Munster, Germany, to attend a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers and the U.S.-German Futures Forum.
US SAYS PYONGYANG ‘COVERTLY’ ARMING RUSSIA: In a conference call briefing for reporters, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby accused North Korea of covertly sending artillery ammunition to Russia to replenish its dwindling stockpiles.
“Back in September, North Korea publicly denied that it intended to provide ammunition to Russia for their use in Ukraine. However, our information indicates that the DPRK is covertly supplying Russia’s war on Ukraine with a significant number of artillery shells while obfuscating the real destination of the arms shipments by trying to make it appear as though they’re being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa,” said Kirby, who could not say if the shipments have actually been delivered to Moscow.
The U.S. said Russia’s effort to get weapons and ammunition from Iran and North Korea shows its military continues to suffer supply shortages, caused by sanctions that have crippled Russia’s domestic defense industry.
IRAN MAY PROVIDE RUSSIA WITH ADDITIONAL WEAPONS, INCLUDING MISSILES, IN UKRAINE
‘WE’RE WATCHING AS BEST WE CAN’: Asked about yesterday’s New York Times report that said U.S. intelligence says senior Russian military leaders recently discussed “when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine,” Kirby declined to confirm the report but said the U.S. is watching for any change in the status of Russian nuclear forces.
“We’ve no indications that Mr. Putin has made a decision to use nuclear weapons, but this is all deeply concerning to us,” Kirby said. “We’re watching things as best we can, but we still have not seen any indication that the Russians are making preparations for such use.”
The New York Times report said Russian President Vladimir Putin himself was not a part of the conversations, which seemed to be prompted by the increasingly tenuous position of some of its forces on the battlefield.
Kirby admitted that the U.S. doesn’t have perfect clarity on what moves Putin is making or what he is thinking.
“We’re mindful that we may not see everything, that we may not know everything, which is why we take the monitoring tasks so seriously, because we’re mindful that we may not pick up every single indicator,” he said. “When you’re talking about a modern nuclear power and the leader of a modern nuclear power, as Mr. Putin is, talk as recklessly and irresponsibly as he has been doing about the potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, you’ve got to take it seriously.”
UKRAINE GIVES MAJOR RUSSIAN FORCE CHOICE ‘TO RETREAT OR TO DIE’
RUSSIA SAYS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE ‘SOLELY DEFENSIVE’: Whether in response to the New York Times story or just all the speculation about whether Russian military doctrine of “escalate to de-escalate” might prompt Putin or order a low-yield tactical nuclear strike, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a statement describing its nuclear use policy as purely defensive only when Russia’s “very existence” is threatened.
“Russian doctrinal approaches in this sphere are defined with utmost accuracy, pursue solely defensive goals and do not admit of expansive interpretation,” the statement said. “These approaches allow for Russia to hypothetically resort to nuclear weapons exclusively in response to an aggression involving the use of weapons of mass destruction or an aggression with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”
In the statement, Russia reaffirmed the principle it committed to in January,with the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, and China — that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
“We are strongly convinced that in the current complicated and turbulent situation, caused by irresponsible and impudent actions aimed at undermining our national security, the most immediate task is to avoid any military clash of nuclear powers,” the statement said.
RUSSIA REJOINS GRAIN EXPORTS DEAL AFTER BRIEF WITHDRAWAL
WILL IRAN ATTACK SAUDI ARABIA? Saudi Arabia is telling the U.S. that it has seen indications that Iran may be preparing to conduct a military strike against the kingdom.
While not confirming any intelligence suggesting an imminent attack, Kirby said Saudi Arabia has been under constant threat from Iran and its proxies.
“We recognize that the threat from Iran is real,” Kirby told reporters. “We remain concerned about that threat, and we’re going to continue to work not only with our Saudi partners but with other partners in the region to better be able to address that threat.”
“Saudi Arabia is a strategic partner in the region,” he said. “We recognize that there are 70,000 Americans who live and work in Saudi Arabia, including thousands of U.S. troops. And we continue to help provide Saudi Arabia with some self-defense capabilities. That hasn’t changed.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine gives major Russian force choice ‘to retreat or to die’
Washington Examiner: Iran may provide Russia with additional weapons, including missiles, in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: North Korea ‘covertly supplying’ Russia with artillery shells, US alleges
Washington Examiner: Russia rejoins grain exports deal after brief withdrawal
Washington Examiner: Biden Pentagon official joins TikTok amid review of the Chinese app
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Congratulating Benjamin Netanyahu, the US must issue a clear China warning
Reuters: Ukrainian Nuclear Plant Disconnected From Grid By Russian Shelling
AP: Ukrainian Official: Musk To Keep Funding Key Satellite Links
AP: Poland lays razor wire on border with Russia’s Kaliningrad
Defense Daily: DOD to Examine Options for Hard and Deeply Buried Targets
Defense News: Satellite Images Show Air Base in Southern China Receiving Makeover
Bloomberg: Chinese Envoy Denies Beijing Has Timeline for Taiwan Unification
USNI News: Navy Expanding Attack Submarine Presence On Guam As A Hedge Against Growing Chinese Fleet
Defense News: U.S. Navy Wants To Avoid Shortfall Of Nuke-Armed Subs In 2030s
Defense One: Here’s The Last Hurdle Keeping Subs From Being Drone Motherships
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Alaska-Based F-22s Deploy to CENTCOM Amid Iran Threat
AP: Army probes whether troops wrongly targeted in bonus scandal
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Space Force Leader: Saltzman Formally Succeeds Raymond as CSO
Air & Space Forces Magazine: These USAF Units Are Flying in the Large, Joint US-South Korea Exercise
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force to Establish Components for INDOPACOM, CENTCOM, Korea by End of 2022
Military.com: Air Force Acknowledges Improperly Releasing Congressional Candidate’s Performance Review
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s PAK DA Stealth Bomber ‘Will Never Fly’, U.S. Defense Officials
19fortyfive.com: Defending Taiwan vs. Defending Ukraine: What’s the Difference?
19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Now Clearly Losing the Ukraine War
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Admiral Makarov Frigate: Did Ukraine Sink It?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s T-14 Armata Tank: One Big Mistake?
FDD: How to get Kyiv the Tanks and Armored Vehicles It Needs
Wall Street Journal: Opinion: On Navies, Anti-Navies and Defense of Taiwan
Calendar
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 3
11 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. N.W. — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “Putin’s Shifting Approach to Conflict and the War in Ukraine,” with Mark Galeotti, principal director of Mayak Intelligence and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, and Donald Jensen, director of the USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/putins-shifting-approach
12 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Cyber Defenders: Collaborative Computing,” with Brian Mazanec, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office https://events.nextgov.com/cyber-defenders-collaborative-computing/
1 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “What Are America’s Strategic Options on Iran?” with Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program and former external adviser to senior State Department officials; Henry Rome, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Christopher Chivvis, director of the CEIP American Statecraft Program; and Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at CEIP https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/03/what-are-america-s-strategic-options-on-iran
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion: “Power projection: Accelerating the electrification of U.S. military ground vehicles,” with Assistant Army Secretary for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Douglas Bush; former Assistant Defense Secretary for Operational Energy Sharon Burke, founder and president of Ecospherics; Jeffrey Ryder, vice president for growth and strategy at GM Defense; and Jim Khoury, director of electrification outside sales and new business development at GM Defense https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/power-projection
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 4
12:30 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “The CCP 20th Party Congress and China’s Road Ahead” https://calendar.gwu.edu/ccp-20th-party-congress-conference
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies event “The 2022 Missile Defense Review,” with John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy, and Tom Karako, senior fellow, International Security Program, and director, Missile Defense Project, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/2022-missile-defense-review
1 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Resolving Tensions Between South Korea and Japan: Creative Approaches to Strengthening the Relationship,” with Jonathan Miller, director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Indo-Pacific Program; Nathan Park, nonresident fellow at the Sejong Institute in South Korea; Alexis Dudden, professor of history at the University of Connecticut; Daniel Sneider, lecturer in East Asian studies at Stanford University; Timothy Webster, professor of law at Western New England University; and Frank Aum, senior expert for Northeast Asia at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/resolving-tensions
3 p.m. — Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy on Lebanon,” with Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/us-policy-lebanon-conversation
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 8
4:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu Contact: Thom Shanker [email protected]
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.— Brookings Institution event: “U.S. defense innovation and great power deterrence,” with Chris Brose, chief strategy officer, Anduril Industries; David Ochmanek, senior defense analyst, Rand Corporation; Caitlin Talmadge, nonresident senior fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; and moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 18
TBA Halifax, Nova Scotia — 2022 Halifax International Security Forum with more than 300 participants from more than 60 countries across six continents helping to shape strategic thinking leading into 2023. Attendees from the United States include Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) https://halifaxtheforum.org
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Russian doctrinal approaches … allow for Russia to hypothetically resort to nuclear weapons exclusively in response to an aggression involving the use of weapons of mass destruction or an aggression with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”
Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry statement “on preventing nuclear war,” which said Russia would only use nuclear weapons defensively
