On its face, the effect of the pandemic on President Trump’s public standing looks much like the effect Hurricane Katrina had on President George W. Bush — a setback from which a presidency never fully recovered.
Yet many analysts suggest the comparison is premature, that Trump has a window, albeit a narrow one, through which he can still win in November.
To be sure, there are similarities, especially when it comes to displaying effective leadership and compassion. When Katrina struck, Bush was slow to respond. When he finally did, he committed one of the biggest unforced errors of his administration by letting himself be photographed looking out the window of Air Force One as it flew over the area devastated by the hurricane. It made him appear aloof rather than caring. That, combined with his decision to not visit the area early on, caused his disapproval rating to jump from about 51% just before Katrina hit the United States on Aug. 23, 2005, to 58% by the end of the year. It only worsened from there, with nearly 2 in 3 respondents disapproving by the end of his term.
Trump has widely been criticized as failing to show leadership during the early months of the pandemic. His press briefings in March and April were often combative and unfocused at a time when Americans were likely looking for a calm, reassuring leader. The White House discontinued the press briefings in May and did not resume them until August. He also openly contradicted his public health officials at times and was resistant to wearing a mask. In a June interview, Trump said some people wore masks to “signal their disapproval” of him.
For Trump, his response to the pandemic appears to have been a missed opportunity.
“There is 10%-15% of the voters who, if Trump had handled the pandemic well, they would have said, ‘Maybe Trump does deserve to be reelected,'” said Cary Covington, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. “Trump had a chance to grab this by the horns … but Trump avoided taking responsibility and taking charge.”
“Trump’s approval rating has been extremely steady throughout his administration,” said Nathaniel Rakich, an elections analyst for the poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight. “The coronavirus pandemic seems to be one of the few things that actually seemed to move it, although it is still in a fairly narrow range.”
Trump’s job approval rating has remained quite steady in the low-40% range throughout his presidency. Early in the crisis, it jumped to 46%, what Rakich called a “rally around the flag” effect. But skepticism of Trump grew as the crisis continued, with his approval dropping to 40% in late July. It now stands at 42%.
His disapproval numbers, however, have continually worsened during the pandemic. In early March, Trump’s disapproval rating averaged under 49%, according to FiveThirtyEight. As the pandemic wore on, that rose to 57%. Today it stands at just under 55%. Trump’s numbers on the coronavirus are even worse. In April, about 49% approved of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, while 47% disapproved. At present, it stands at 39% approve versus 58% disapprove.
The highest cost may be a loss of support among swing voters.
“It depends how you define ‘swing voter,'” said Mark Blumenthal, an analyst at the polling firm YouGov. “I looked at those voters who are either undecided or are still open to changing their minds. Those voters are not yet lost to Trump.”
However, among those voters in the latest YouGov tracking survey, Trump’s rating on the coronavirus was 32% approve, 64% disapprove.
In some important ways, though, Trump’s difficulties related to the pandemic are quite different from Hurricane Katrina.
“It was a break within his own party over Miers that took Bush’s numbers even lower,” said Blumenthal. “But with Trump, much of the Republican base is still with him.”
“There really isn’t an inflection point on Katrina,” said Blumenthal. “If you were looking at [Bush’s numbers] and didn’t know when Katrina happened, you wouldn’t be able to pick it out. Bush’s numbers were in steady decline at that point.”
Leading up to Katrina, the Iraq War had been taking a toll on Bush’s job approval numbers. A few months after, Bush nominated Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court, a move that was unpopular even among Republicans.
Additionally, Trump still has a chance to recover in time for the November election.
“Things could get significantly better between now and November, and he would probably wing back swing voters,” said Rakich. “A lot of it has to do with circumstances. If the economy recovers, if virus cases fall and life returns to normal, that will be good for him. But if people look around and see things have gotten worse … that will get them to vote for the challenger.”
But Covington doesn’t think Trump has a “positive way” back that will result in him beating Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
“At this point, he needs a miracle, such as a vaccine that is a roaring success by October. But I don’t think that’s going to happen,” he said. “The road forward for Trump is to get those voters suspicious of Joe Biden to see him as a doddering puppet of the leftists who Trump supporters believe are a threat to the country.”
Lately, Trump has been attacking Biden as a captive of the extreme left wing of his party. Not everyone is convinced that will work.
“Up until now, those attacks haven’t been landing,” said Blumenthal. “The YouGov survey shows that Biden is perceived as a moderate.”
