As President Trump trails in polls, there’s one absurd theory that won’t seem to die. It’s stated in different forms, but it basically boils down to the idea that if Trump loses, he will refuse to leave office.
This theory has been floated by comedian Bill Maher, pushed in the New York Times opinion page, and even hinted at by Joe Biden, who has said, “As the walls close in on him, he becomes more erratic. And I’m genuinely concerned about what he may do in order to try to hold on to the office.”
At the outset, it’s worth stating how much supreme irony there is that Trump’s opponents, who spent years pursuing the conspiracy that he was installed into office by Russia, are the ones raising alarms about anybody refusing to accept defeat.
But the theory itself is completely absurd — as if Trump is going to be barricading himself behind the Oval Office desk on Inauguration Day.
Practically, it doesn’t make sense for two main reasons. One, there’s no reason to believe that Trump would take any sort of action to remain in power. Two, even if he did, nobody would go along with it.
On the first front, it’s worth noting that whatever Trump may say in public, he has not lived up to the wildest dreams of critics to become some sort of dictator. He may fume about the fake news, but he isn’t exactly jailing journalists. He may issue executive orders and criticize judges who block them, but he hasn’t been casually defying court orders.
If ever he was going to assume some sort of dictatorial powers, the chance to do it would have been during a pandemic and national rioting, but he has not done so. In fact, early on in the coronavirus crisis, it was Trump’s critics who were demanding he order a nationwide shutdown and that he use the Defense Production Act to more aggressively force manufactures to make ventilators and other necessary supplies. But it was Trump who resisted calls for national lockdown order, and who preferred to use the Defense Production Act as leverage to urge companies to make necessary supplies. Despite his boast that he had “the ultimate authority” to reopen the economy, he left those decisions up to the states.
Were he to lose to Biden, his advisers would counsel against any effort to cling to power, and we would expect him to listen to their advice. Whatever statements Trump may have made in public about the coronavirus, he largely followed the suggestions of Dr. Anthony Fauci and other health experts.
Even if he did somehow decide he wanted to pursue staying in power, nobody would go along with it.
Republicans may have stood with him through the ups and downs of his presidency, but that was only because as long as he was president, they needed to deal with him to get anything done, and his electoral success made them fear incurring his wrath. As an election loser with no power to deliver policy wins for them, his grip on the party will continue to loosen. The day after the election, many prominent Republicans will already be jockeying for position in the 2024 presidential nomination fight.
Chief Justice John Roberts would go ahead and swear in Biden at noon on Jan. 20, and at that point, everyone in the military would be required by oath to recognize Biden as their commander in chief. They would not be allowed to take orders from Trump without facing prosecution.
Likewise, there’s no reason Trump’s Cabinet officials, who no doubt have plans for their lives beyond the White House, would want to risk jail time in a hopeless bid to install Trump.
To be sure, were Trump to lose, he may not be gracious about it. He may send out tweets claiming election fraud, or he may talk about how he was coasting to reelection before China brought the plague on the world. He may attack the fake news media. But after Jan. 20, he would be doing so from outside the White House.
