US believes Putin planned massive missile strikes before attack on Kerch Bridge to rally Russians behind his failing war

The United States believes Putin, facing humiliating losses on the battlefield, elevated Surovikin from his command of Russian forces in southern Ukraine and ordered the airstrike in an attempt to counter the perception he is losing the war.

“When you look at the size and scale here of these missile and drone attacks … that’s not the kind of thing the Russians can just throw together in a couple of days. It likely was something that they had been planning for quite some time,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on CNN. “Now, that’s not to say that the explosion on the Crimea bridge might have accelerated some of their planning, I don’t know that. But more than likely, this was something not in retaliation but really was something very much a continuation of Putin’s designs over the last several weeks to target specifically Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.”

RUTHLESS ‘GENERAL ARMAGEDDON’ APPOINTED HEAD OF RUSSIAN ARMY IN UKRAINE

SUROVIKIN’S PREDICAMENT: Despite his reputation for ruthlessness, Western analysts believe Surovikin will have a tough time reversing battlefield setbacks because Russian troops in Ukraine continue to suffer from morale and supply problems.

“Surovikin’s appointment likely reflects an effort by the Russian national security community to improve the delivery of the operation,” said the British Defense Ministry in a tweet. “However, he will likely have to contest with an increasingly factional Russian MOD which is poorly resourced to achieve the political objectives it has set in Ukraine.”

“Surovikin’s appointment will not lead to further ‘Syrianization’ of Russian operations in Ukraine because the battlespace in Ukraine is fundamentally different from the battlespace in Syria, and direct comparisons to Surovikin’s Syrian ‘playbook’ obfuscate the fact that Russia faces very different challenges in Ukraine,” said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest analysis. “Russia cannot further ‘Syrianize’ the war largely because of its failure to gain air superiority, which precludes its ability to launch the kind of massive carpet-bombing campaigns across Ukraine that it could, and did, conduct in Syria.”

OPINION: WHY MISSILE STRIKES AND A NEW MILITARY COMMANDER WON’T REDRESS PUTIN’S UKRAINE WOES

RATIONALE REVEALED: Julia Davis, whose Twitter feed is the go-to source for monitoring what is being said on Russian state TV, noted that the strikes, while having limited military value, lifted the spirits of Russian commentators who had turned increasingly critical in recent weeks as battlefield losses mounted.

“While the attacks seemed to be devoid of any military meaning — changing nothing on the battlefield, where Russia continues to lose — the rationale behind them was revealed on Russian state media, where the ugly truth is systematically breaking through state-erected barriers,” Davis wrote in the Daily Beast.

“Konstantin Zatulin, first deputy chairman of the committee of the State Duma for the CIS and relations with Russian nationals abroad, said that seeing the aftermath of Russia’s missile strikes against Ukraine brought a ‘feeling of satisfaction.’ He stated that Russia’s short-term goal is ‘to reclaim the initiative we used to have, which was unfortunately depleted during the summer, which resulted in considerable losses of the territories we previously controlled,’” she wrote.

UN SAYS ‘SHOCKING’ BARRAGE OF RUSSIAN MISSILES APPEARS TO HAVE TARGETED CIVILIANS

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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO defense ministers are gathered in Brussels for two days of meetings, where much of the focus will be on providing additional military assistance to Ukraine, especially enhanced air defenses, in the face of Russia’s second day of random missile strikes on cities in Ukraine far from the front lines.

“Ukraine has the momentum and continues to make significant gains, while Russia is increasingly resorting to horrific and indiscriminate attacks on civilians and critical infrastructure,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in his preview press conference. “President Putin is failing in Ukraine. His attempted annexations, partial mobilization, and reckless nuclear rhetoric represent the most significant escalation since the start of the war.”

“I welcome the recent announcements by allies to provide more advanced air defense systems and other capabilities to Ukraine, and I look forward to further deliveries,” Stoltenberg said. “Our message is clear. NATO stands with Ukraine for as long as it takes. President Putin started this war. He must end it by withdrawing his forces from Ukraine.”

US ‘CERTAINLY INTERESTED IN EXPEDITING’ DELIVERY OF AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS TO UKRAINE

AUSTIN CHAIRS DONOR MEETING: Before the defense ministerial, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will chair the U.S.-hosted meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of some 50 countries that are pledged to provide continuing military assistance to Ukraine.

Austin was scheduled to make opening remarks at 7 a.m. Eastern time. Then at 11:30 a.m., Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will hold a joint press conference at NATO Headquarters at the conclusion of the first day of a meeting of defense ministers.

ELON MUSK DENIES REPORT HE RECENTLY SPOKE TO PUTIN BEFORE UNVEILING UKRAINE PEACE PLAN

BIDEN: PUTIN ‘RATIONAL ACTOR WHO’S MISCALCULATED’: In an interview that aired on CNN last night, President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin “a rational actor who’s miscalculated significantly.”

“I think he thought he’s going to be welcomed with open arms, that this was, this has been the home of Mother Russia, and Kyiv, and they were — he was going to be welcomed. And I think he just totally miscalculated,” Biden told CNN’s Jake Tapper.

When Tapper asked if there’s an “off-ramp” for Putin to end the war, Biden replied: “I don’t know what’s in his mind. But clearly, he could leave. He could just flat leave and still probably hold his position together in Russia.”

Asked if he would be willing to meet with Putin at the next G-20 meeting, Biden said probably no, but he left the door open a crack.

“Look, he’s acted brutally. He’s acted brutally. I think he’s committed war crimes. And so I don’t see any rationale to meet with him now,” he said. “I’m not about to nor is anyone else prepared to negotiate with Russia, about them staying in Ukraine, keeping any part of Ukraine, etc. So, it would depend on specifically what he wanted to talk about.”

“I have no intention of meeting with him. But, for example, if he came to me, at the G-20 and said, ‘I want to talk about the release of [WNBA star Brittney] Griner,’ I’d meet with him. I mean, it would depend.”

KREMLIN OPEN TO PUTIN-BIDEN MEETING AT G-20 SUMMIT, LAVROV SAYS

WILL HE OR WON’T HE? Biden told CNN that he doesn’t think Putin would resort to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon and that his “Armageddon” warning was based on the risk of miscalculation.

“I don’t think he will. But I think it’s irresponsible of him to talk about it, the idea that a world leader of one of the largest nuclear powers in the world says he may use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine,” he said. “The whole point I was making was it could lead to just a horrible outcome — and not because anybody intends to turn it into a world war, or anything. But it just — once you use a nuclear weapon, the mistakes that can be made, the miscalculations? Who knows what would happen?”

BIDEN DOUBLES DOWN ON WARNING OF NUCLEAR ‘ARMAGEDDON’

CONSEQUENCES FOR SAUDI ARABIA: Biden, who insists he didn’t go to Saudi Arabia seeking an oil deal, nevertheless feels betrayed by the Saudis who, working with Russia, agreed to cut oil production to boost prices, something that benefits Putin directly.

Democrats in Congress are furious. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has called for a freeze on arms sales and other cooperation with Saudi Arabia, while the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), said the Saudis have stabbed the U.S. in the back.

“I can just tell you that the sentiment in the Senate is strong in terms of what the Saudi Arabians have done,” Durbin told CNN. “This notion that they’re going to raise our gasoline prices, and we’re supposed to look the other way and call them good old boys, to heck with that. I mean this is a terrible regime. It is a kingdom in the 21st century that should be out of business.”

In his CNN interview, Biden said there would be “consequences” for Saudi Arabia.

“When the House and Senate gets back … there’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done with Russia,” Biden said.

“What kind of consequences?” asked Tapper. “Menendez says, suspend all arms sales. Is that something you’d consider?”

“I’m not going to get into what I’d consider and what I’m having in mind,” Biden replied. “But there will be consequences.”

DEMOCRATS LASH OUT AT SAUDI ARABIA OVER OPEC+ OIL CUTS

ALSO TODAY: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) hold a 9:30 a.m. news conference on “bicameral legislation to stop U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia,” in the Senate Radio/TV Gallery.

SMITH WARNS AGAINST PUSHING SAUDIS INTO ARMS OF RUSSIA AND CHINA: House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-WA) is urging caution about possible unintended consequences of cutting off arms to Saudi Arabia.

“I want to make it perfectly clear, I think we need to try to put pressure on Saudi Arabia,” Smith said in an appearance on CNN. “But what it would mean in the short term is, you know, Saudi Arabia, they would be in a position where they would be closer to Russia and closer to China and further away from us.”

“I guess you could say the leverage we have over Saudi Arabia is that we could stop selling them weapons, but we are not the only people in the world to sell weapons,” he said. “There would certainly be an awkward transition for Saudi Arabia. Weapon systems are not interchangeable. But they would move in that direction.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden doubles down on warning of nuclear ‘Armageddon’

Washington Examiner: US ‘certainly interested in expediting’ delivery of air defense systems to Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Kremlin open to Putin-Biden meeting at G-20 summit, Lavrov says

Washington Examiner: UN says ‘shocking’ barrage of Russian missiles appears to have targeted civilians

Washington Examiner: Ruthless ‘General Armageddon’ appointed head of Russian army in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: NATO’s Stoltenberg: No changes in Russian nuclear posture despite Putin rhetoric

Washington Examiner: NATO to hold nuclear deterrence exercise as Russia rages at Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Belarus troops may not be useful to Russia during Ukraine war

Washington Examiner: Russian troops pour into Belarus ‘by the trainload’

Washington Examiner: Elon Musk denies report he recently spoke to Putin before unveiling Ukraine peace plan

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why missile strikes and a new military commander won’t redress Putin’s Ukraine woes

Washington Examiner: Democrats lash out at Saudi Arabia over OPEC+ oil cuts

Washington Examiner: China could use digital currency to dodge US sanctions in Taiwan crisis

Washington Examiner: Army secretary gets pushback after denying military ‘wokeness’ problems

Washington Post: Hungary’s Orban says Trump is the ‘hope for peace’ in Ukraine

Washington Post: Biden scrambles to avert cracks in pro-Ukraine coalition

New York Times: Russians Kidnap Another Top Official At The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, Ukrainian Officials Say

New York Times: Putin’s Plan to Bomb Kyiv Into Submission? History Says It Won’t Work

NBC News: Secret Service agents were denied when they tried to learn what Jan. 6 info was seized from their personal cellphones

Washington Post: Xi’s Third Term As Chinese Leader Raises Threat Of War Over Taiwan

Reuters: Taiwan Says China Looking At Ukraine War To Develop ‘Hybrid’ Strategies

Bloomberg: Taiwan Plans To Build New Warships To Counter China’s Pressure

USNI News: China, Russia Quietly Expanding Arctic Partnership, Says Panel

Military Times: Senators Confident Defense Budget Work Will Finish This Year

Wall Street Journal: Senators Advance Annual Defense Bill

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Cruise Missile Defense of North America is a ‘Picket Fence,’ NORAD Commander Says

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Dozens of Lawmakers Urge Pentagon to Move Forward With Adaptive Engines

Air & Space Forces Magazine: KC-135s Set Record With 72-Hour Endurance Mission

Japan Times: U.S. nuclear submarine hits mystery object in South China Sea

19fortyfive.com: Would Putin Use Russia’s Nuclear Weapons To Stop a Coup?

19fortyfive.com: The NATO vs. Russia Proxy War in Ukraine Could Become a Real War

19fortyfive.com: Russia’s T-14 Armata Tank May Have Made it to Ukraine After All

19fortyfive.com: Dark Eagle: The U.S. Army’s Hypersonic Weapon Is Coming Soon

19fortyfive.com: KF-21 Boramae: South Korea’s ‘Stealthy’ Fighter Could Be A Game Changer

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 12

8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Can Ukraine Survive the Winter?” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Anders Aslund, former senior fellow at the Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/can-ukraine-survive-the-winter

8:30 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Pl. N.W.— Association of the United States Army wraps up its 2022 annual meeting and exposition with the theme, “Building the Army of 2030.” Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo participates in an “Army Civilian Forum” at 9:30 a.m. https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/2022/2022

10 a.m. — Politico virtual discussion: “U.S., China and Xi Jinping’s New Era,” with Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) https://www.politico.com/live-events/2022

12 p.m. — Center for Security Policy book discussion webinar: Who Lost Afghanistan? with author Robert Spencer and Kyle Shideler, CSP director for homeland security and counterterrorism https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

2 p.m. 37th St. and O St. N.W. — Center for a New American Security and Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service discussion with national security adviser Jake Sullivan https://www.cnas.org/events/special-event

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 13

2:25 a.m. NATO Headquarters — U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg make short remarks before their bilateral meeting. Available live on the NATO website https://www.nato.int/

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies 2022 Global Development Forum discussion: “Envisioning a Free and Prosperous Ukraine” https://www.csis.org/events/2022-global-development-forum

9 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Afghanistan Under the Taliban and its Regional Impact,” with Daniel Markey, senior adviser for South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace; Yun Sun, co-director of the Stimson East Asia Program; Elizabeth Threlkeld, director of the Stimson South Asia Program; and Barnett Rubin, fellow at the Stimson China Program https://www.stimson.org/event/trip-findings-afghanistan

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Exploiting a Hidden Window of Opportunity to Deter a Conflict over Taiwan,” with Michael Brown, visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and former director of the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit; former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner at WestExec Advisors; and Daniel Patt, senior fellow at Hudson’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2171-virtual-event

2 p.m. — National Endowment for Democracy virtual discussion: “Sustaining the Momentum: Countering Kleptocracy in Russia and Beyond,” with Shannon Green, executive director of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Anti-Corruption Task Force; Nikita Kulachenkov, independent anti-corruption investigator; and Nate Sibley, research fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Kleptocracy Initiative https://www.ned.org/events/sustaining-the-momentum-countering-kleptocracy

2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute book discussion on China after Mao: The Rise of a Superpower, with author Frank Dikotter, chair professor of humanities at the University of Hong Kong https://www.hudson.org/events/2151-china-after-mao

5:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Finland, NATO, and the Lessons of History,” with Ahonen Pertti, professor at the University of Jyvaskyla https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

5:30 p.m. 1234 Ninth St. N.W. — Axios discussion: “Guarding Against and Responding to Cyberattacks,” with Deputy National Security Council Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger; former homeland security adviser Thomas Bossert, president of Trinity Cyber; Heather Adkins, vice president of security engineering at Google; and Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator https://respondingtocyberattacks.splashthat.com

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 14

12:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Posturing U.S. Space Operations for a Warfighting Advantage,” with Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander of the Space Operations Command https://www.csis.org/events/lt-gen-stephen-n-whiting

2 p.m. — Center for Security and International Studies International Security Program and the U.S. Naval Institute Maritime Security Dialogue: “Seventh Fleet update,” with Vice Adm. Karl Thomas; retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; and Seth Jones, director, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. N.W. — United States Institute of Peace film screening and discussion: “My Childhood, My Country: 20 Years in Afghanistan,” with co-writer and co-director Phil Grabsky and Belquis Ahmadi, USIP senior program officer https://www.usip.org/events/screening-bafta-winner-my-childhood-my-country