‘AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION’: In a rare Sunday night conference call for reporters, the State Department announced it is ordering the families of U.S. government employees at the embassy in Kyiv to leave immediately and telling “non-emergency” embassy employees their departure is authorized on a voluntary basis. Other American citizens in Ukraine are also being urged to consider leaving as well.
“These decisions were made out of an abundance of caution due to continued Russian efforts to destabilize the country and undermine the security of Ukrainian citizens and others visiting or residing in Ukraine,” a senior State Department official said last night. “Do we believe a Russian invasion is imminent? As President Biden has said, military action by Russia could come at any time. The United States government will not be in a position to evacuate U.S. citizens in such a contingency, so U.S. citizens currently present in Ukraine should plan accordingly, including by availing themselves of commercial options should they choose to leave the country.”
While Ukraine is under a Level Four Travel Advisory, urging Americans not to travel to the country because of COVID risks and now the threat of Russian invasion, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv continues to operate, and U.S. Charge d’Affaires Kristina Kvien remains in Ukraine.
MORE AMMO ARRIVES: “These are prudent precautions taken for the sake of the safety of U.S. citizens and government personnel, and they in no way undermine our support for or our commitment to Ukraine,” the official told reporters. “The United States commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering.”
In the briefing, officials said the U.S. was rushing “new lethal defensive security assistance” to Ukraine, including what they said was “ammunition for the frontline defenders.”
“The first of several shipments for Ukrainian armed forces, totaling $200 million, arrived in Kyiv on January 22nd, and more will arrive in weeks to come,” one official said. “With this new authorization, the United States has committed more than $650 million of security assistance to Ukraine in the past year and more than $2.7 billion in total U.S. security assistance to Ukraine since 2014.”
US SENDING WEAPONS TO UKRAINE AND PULLING AMERICANS OUT
US ‘SHOULD BE MOVING HEAVEN AND EARTH’ TO ARM UKRAINE: In an opinion piece published in Defense News, three analysts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argue time is running out to give Ukraine the weaponry it needs to defend against Russia’s military might.
“The administration should be moving heaven and earth to urgently provide Ukraine — a beleaguered democracy pleading for American help — with the weapons and other support it needs to deter a Russian offensive,” write FDD’s Bradley Bowman, John Hardie, and Jack Sullivan. “Putin should see American and other NATO cargo aircraft landing every few hours, offloading defensive weapons that will make any new invasion of Ukraine increasingly costly.”
“Assistance should also include armed drones, long-range counter-artillery radars, electronic warfare capabilities, anti-ship capabilities, and anti-tank and naval mines, for example. The U.S. Harpoon and U.K. Brimstone systems are potential candidates,” the authors write. “Beyond weapons, Washington should also provide Ukraine with actionable battlefield intelligence, something the United States did not do following Russia’s 2014 aggression against Ukraine.”
NATO SHOOTS DOWN RUSSIAN ULTIMATUM AS DISPUTE FLARES AFTER BLINKEN-LAVROV MEETING
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden returns to Washington this morning from Camp David, where on Saturday, according to reports, he was briefed virtually by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley on options to reinforce the U.S. military presence in eastern Europe as a signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“The options include sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries, with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate,” the New York Times reported, citing officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The options would move some U.S. troops from other parts of Europe to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, but none to Ukraine itself.
Additional troops and aircraft could also be deployed from the U.S. On Friday, the Pentagon announced the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, along with its carrier strike group and air wing, will be operating in the Mediterranean Sea this week as part of a long-planned NATO exercise “Neptune Strike ’22.”
“The exercise itself is not designed against the kinds of scenarios that might happen with respect to Ukraine,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said. “It really is a NATO maritime exercise.”
ALSO TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has a busy day at NATO headquarters in Belgium, meeting with the Moldovan deputy prime minister, the British foreign secretary, and the foreign ministers of Finland and Sweden.
The meeting comes as several NATO allies are putting more troops on standby and moving ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe.
“Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and is set to deploy four F-16 fighter jets to Lithuania in support of NATO’s long-standing air-policing mission in the region. Spain is sending ships to join NATO naval forces and is considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria. France has expressed its readiness to send troops to Romania under NATO command. The Netherlands is sending two F-35 fighter aircraft to Bulgaria from April to support NATO’s air-policing activities in the region, and is putting a ship and land-based units on standby for NATO’s Response Force,” NATO said in a statement.
Stoltenberg will have one media appearance at the end of the day with the Finnish and Swedish ministers scheduled for 11 a.m. Washington time.
PUTIN’S PLOT TO PUT PUPPET IN KYIV: Stoltenberg meets with British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss two days after the U.K. foreign ministry revealed it had intelligence indicating the Kremlin was plotting to install “a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv” and that it was eying former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as “a potential candidate.”
“The information being released today shines a light on the extent of Russian activity designed to subvert Ukraine, and is an insight into Kremlin thinking,” Truss said in a statement.
“I can’t comment on specific pieces of intelligence,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday on CNN. “But we have been warning about just this kind of tactic for weeks … So, this is very much part of the Russian toolkit. It runs the gamut from a large conventional incursion or invasion of Ukraine to these kinds of destabilizing activities in an attempt to topple the government.”
UNITED KINGDOM WARNS RUSSIA PLOTTING TO INVADE UKRAINE AND INSTALL PUPPET LEADER
SANCTIONS, NOW OR LATER? Facing increasing calls for the U.S. and its allies to sanction Russia before it invades Ukraine instead of waiting until after, the Biden administration is digging in on its argument that the threat of future sanctions is a greater deterrent effect than sanctions leveled now.
“When it comes to sanctions, the purpose of those sanctions is to deter Russian aggression,” Blinken said on CNN. “If they’re triggered now, you lose the deterrent effect.”
Among the many who disagree is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “If we are talking about the sanctions policy and the probability of escalation, then the question is, why are you not introducing sanctions now rather than wait until after the escalation?” Zelensky told the Washington Post’s Lally Weymouth in an interview published on Sunday.
“I support imposing sanctions now,” he said. “Why do you need sanctions after we lose the whole territory of Ukraine?”
‘A DOCTRINE OF APPEASEMENT’: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa said Biden is projecting an image of weakness and called for sanctions to be imposed immediately and said waiting until after the fact is tantamount to appeasement.
“When it comes to pushing back against Russia, we need to show strength and not be in a position of doctrine of appeasement,” Ernst said on CNN. “President Putin sees every opportunity to do what he wants to do in Ukraine with very little pushback from the United States … Putin only understands strength and power … We need to show them that we mean business, and we will be there for Ukraine should they invade.”
“We can always remove the sanctions if it deters Putin’s bad behavior. But if you reward that and there are no consequences, it’s going to continue,” said Texas Rep. Michael McCaul on CBS. “If we don’t do something strong right now, I’m afraid that he’s going to invade Ukraine.”
BOMBSHELL DRAFT MEMO: The tranche of 700 pages of documents turned over by the National Archives to the House Jan. 6 committee under order of the Supreme Court includes the draft of an executive order never sent that would have ordered the Pentagon to seize voting machines and begin a review of allegations of fraud.
The order, obtained by Politico, which published it in full on Friday, reads in part: “Effective immediately, the Secretary of Defense shall seize, collect, retain and analyze all machines, equipment, electronically stored information, and material records required for retention … The Secretary of Defense has discretion to determine the interdiction of national critical infrastructure supporting federal elections.”
The extraordinary document, dated Dec. 16, cited as justification numerous unproven theories of election fraud and would have required the director of national intelligence to provide conclusions in 60 days, past the point President Donald Trump would have been in office.
“We’re still going through those documents,” said Virginia Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria on CNN on Friday. “It is incredibly concerning if this is, in fact, a verifiable document that was drafted by somebody within the president’s inner circle, the idea that the Department of Defense would become involved in elections, to be seizing voting machines.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US sending weapons to Ukraine and pulling Americans out
Washington Examiner: NATO shoots down Russian ultimatum as dispute flares after Blinken-Lavrov meeting
Washington Examiner: Blinken and Lavrov plan more talks as US seeks to avert ‘renewed invasion’ of Ukraine
Washington Examiner: United Kingdom warns Russia plotting to invade Ukraine and install puppet leader
Washington Examiner: Trump warns Putin through senator: No ‘normal relationship’ with future president if Russia invades Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Leading GOP lawmaker predicts Ukraine and Taiwan will be invaded within weeks
Washington Examiner: Six former Navy SEALs run for Congress with one goal: Take down Pelosi
Washington Examiner: Russia warns Japan to stay out of Ukraine crisis
Washington Examiner: US conducts airstrikes against ISIS in Syria amid attempted prison break
Washington Examiner: Airstrikes kill at least 70, knock out internet in
Washington Examiner: Arkansas professor pleads guilty to lying to FBI about patents in China
Washington Examiner: Democrats call on Biden to overhaul drone program over civilian casualties
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Follow the Netherlands’s example: Don’t fund terrorist fronts
New York Times: Britain Pursues More Muscular Role in Standoff With Russia on Ukraine
AP: Russia rejects UK claim of trying to replace Ukraine leader
Washington Post: What NATO Members Have Sent To Ukraine
USNI News: Russian Navy Announces More Major Fleet Exercises As Drills End With China, Iran
CNN: Dozens Of Chinese Warplanes Fly Near Taiwan After U.S.-Japan Show Of Naval Might
Reuters: Two U.S. Carriers Enter S.China Sea, To ‘Counter Malign Influence’
AP: U.S. Hits Chinese Defense Companies With Sanctions
Reuters: Exclusive: Iran Nuclear Agreement Unlikely Without Release Of U.S. Prisoners, Negotiator Says
Air Force Magazine: More Eyes on GEO: Space Force Adds Two Space Surveillance Satellites
Air Force Magazine: Top Aces Tests Adversary F-16’s New Aggressor Suite
Task & Purpose: The Marine Corps Will Stop Punishing Marines Who Can’t Shave Due To Painful Razor Bumps
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Desert Storm: Putin’s Plan to Use America’s Military Playbook Against Ukraine?
Washington Post: Volodymyr Zelensky: ‘Everyone will lose’ if Russia invades Ukraine
Defense One: Opinion: Biden must act now to better arm Ukraine. Here’s what that should look like.
Calendar
MONDAY | JANUARY 24
11:30 a.m. EST/5:30 p.m. CET — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holds joining news conference at NATO headquarters with foreign ministers of Finland, Pekka Haavisto, and Sweden, Ann Linde https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
12:30 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual book discussion on Responsible, Accountable, and Ethical Leadership: My Own Journey, with author and former Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. John Jumper https://calendar.gwu.edu/leap-event
3 p.m. — Center for the National Interest virtual discussion on “Russia-Ukraine Tensions.” https://cftni.org/
TUESDAY | JANUARY 25
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Russia’s six scenarios for a new Ukraine invasion,” with former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk; Michael Kofman, research director at the CNA Russia Studies Program; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Resolving the Legacies of Agent Orange: Pathways for Increased Environmental and Health Cooperation between the United States and Vietnam,” with Charles Bailey, former director of the Aspen Institute’s Agent Orange in Vietnam Program; former Ford Foundation President Susan Berresford, convenor of the U.S.-Vietnam Dialogue Group on Agent Orange/Dioxin; Phan Xuan Dung, research officer at the Singapore ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; and Andrew Wells-Dang, senior expert on Vietnam at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/resolving-legacies-agent-orange
11 a.m. — Nuclear Threat Initiative virtual seminar: “From Cyber Attack to Nuclear War: Avoiding Escalation through Cooperation,” with Christopher Painter, president of the Global Forum on Cyber Expertise Foundation and former coordinator for cyber issues at the State Department; and former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, NTI co-chair and CEO https://www.nti.org/events/christopher-painter
11 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Navalny: Putin’s Nemesis, Russia’s Future?” with Ben Noble, associate professor of Russian politics at University College London; Morvan Lallouet, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Kent; Jan Matti Dollbaum, postdoctoral researcher at Bremen University; and Marlene Laruelle, director of the GWU Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies https://calendar.gwu.edu/navalny-putins-nemesis
1 p.m. — Potomac Officers Club virtual discussion: “Fostering Resilient, All-Of-Nation Pandemic Response,” with Navy Chief and Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham. https://potomacofficersclub.com/events
2:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, “Dealing with a Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan: Supporting the Afghan People without Legitimizing the Regime,” with Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla.; former Afghan parliament deputy speaker Fawzia Koofi; Matin Bek, former chief of staff to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani; report author Lisa Curtis, senior fellow at CNAS; Kelley Currie, adjunct senior fellow at CNAS; and Richard Fontaine, CEO of CNAS https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 26
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Korea-Japan Relations, the U.S.-ROK Alliance, and North Korea,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Japan and Korea Mark Lambert; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-40-mark-lambert-0
10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research web event: “What to look for in Biden’s National Security Strategy,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, AEI; Paul Lettow, former senior director for strategic planning, National Security Council; and Gabriel Scheinmann, executive director, Alexander Hamilton Society https://www.aei.org/events/what-to-look-for-in-bidens-national-security-strategy
10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Strengthening the Security Resilience of Ukraine: Military, Energy, Cyber,” with Ukrainian Parliament member Yehor Cherniev, deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament Committee on Digital Transformation and head of the Permanent Delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Olena Pavlenko, president of the DiXi Group; Maria Zolkina, political analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation; Jonathan Katz, GMFUS senior fellow and democracy initiatives director; and Olena Prokopenko, GMFUS fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/strengthening-security-resilience
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Influence Without Entanglement: China’s Evolving Role in the Middle East,” Jonathan Fulton, assistant professor of political science at Zayed University; Lina Benabdallah, assistant professor at Wake Forest University; and David Shullman, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/influence-without-entanglement
2 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual book discussion on The Trillion Dollar War: The U.S. Effort to Rebuild Afghanistan, 1999-2021, with author Abid Amiri, former policy director at the Afghan Ministry of Finance https://connect.gwu.edu/
3:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action,” with Maj. Gen. Case Cunningham, commander of the U.S. Air Force Warfare Center; and Brig. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander of the Space Training and Readiness Command https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/
4 p.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion on “geopolitical hotspots in 2022,” with former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Adm. James Stavridis. https://events.uschamber.com/InSTEPStavridis
THURSDAY | JANUARY 27
8:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Prospects for Japanese Defense Policy and the Indo-Pacific Region.” https://www.stimson.org/event/prospects-for-japanese-defense-policy
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What Can We Learn From the Afghanistan Experience?” with Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-sigar-john-sopko-and-shuja-nawaz/
2 p.m. — Defense One online event: “Connecting the Battlefield: In the Age of Contested Communications,” with Cyril “Mark” Taylor, CTO, communications/J6 of the U.S. Special Operations Command; Juliana Vida, vice president of the global sector and chief strategy adviser at Splunk; and Patrick Tucker, technology editor at Defense One https://event.on24.com/wcc
7 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking: Implications and Opportunities,” with Rachel Minyoung Lee, nonresident fellow at Stimson; and Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow at Stimson https://www.stimson.org/event/understanding-kim-jong-un
FRIDAY | JANUARY 28
8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Prioritizing Partnerships with Africa,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Robert Scott; and Japanese Foreign Ministry African Department Director-General Koji Yonetani https://www.csis.org/events/prioritizing-partnerships-africa
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 2
10 a.m. CVC-200 Capitol Visitor Center — Senate Armed Services committee closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 3
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book launch: Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, with author Amy Zegart, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-spies-lies-and-algorithms
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If we are talking about the sanctions policy and the probability of escalation, then the question is, why are you not introducing sanctions now rather than wait until after the escalation? … Why do you need sanctions after we lose the whole territory of Ukraine?”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with the Washington Post’s Lally Weymouth, published on Sunday.
