The coronavirus will not just play a leading role in deciding whether President Trump gains reelection; it could help decide which of the Republicans angling to succeed him will seize the GOP nomination in four years.
Republican voters in 2020 are getting a good look at how these potential candidates are dealing with the biggest national crisis of the last four years.
“It’s really a long way off,” said one GOP operative. “But it’s a good chance to make a first impression.”
Already well positioned to seek the 2024 GOP presidential nomination as Trump’s No. 2, Vice President Mike Pence is running the White House Coronavirus Task Force.
“He is doing a great job leading the president’s pandemic White House response,” said Bradley Blakeman, a former aide to President George W. Bush. “He is clearly a rock star when it comes to leading America through troubled water with competence and compassion.”
Republican strategist Ron Bonjean agrees. “Vice President Pence has shown tremendous leadership skills as the head of the coronavirus task force,” he said. “He’s low-key, organized, and very effective at keeping the Trump administration focused on the goal of containing the virus. Pence doesn’t play games and just wants to get the job done.”
The risk for Pence is that if Trump’s coronavirus response is seen as ineffective, the vice president will share in the blame. This is despite the fact that Pence has avoided the feuding and finger-pointing that bother some voters regarding the administration’s management of the outbreak. Trump initially saw a bump in his coronavirus-related polling numbers, fueled in part by independents and even Democrats rallying behind the president in a crisis, but his numbers have since dipped.
Pence has a lot riding on Trump’s political fortunes in any event. If Trump is reelected, the vice president will be a heavy favorite for the 2024 nomination.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley is another Trump administration star seen as harboring presidential ambitions. Almost alone among top-tier Republicans, she was critical of the coronavirus rescue package. “DON’T bail out individual industries, pick winners and losers, or pass a bloated stimulus package,” she tweeted, though she allowed for spending mostly targeted at “small and medium-sized companies.” To illustrate her point, Haley promptly resigned from the board of Boeing, a large company that requested federal assistance. But though she can comment, the erstwhile governor of South Carolina has no position of authority from which to deal with the coronavirus and can’t demonstrate leadership in the way some of her potential 2024 competitors can.
Tom Cotton, the Republican senator from Arkansas, has, since the pandemic began, pressed the president’s populist pitch against China more than Trump has and has been credited with taking the coronavirus seriously even earlier. “Sen. Cotton is a well-liked conservative with solid foreign policy credentials who recognized the problem early on in China and tried to bring it to the attention of the Trump administration,” Bonjean said. “He understands how China is positioning itself in the world and what the United States should do next to reestablish itself as a global leader.”
“Governor of Ohio Mike DeWine is another standout,” said Blakeman. “He is leading with calm and steady confidence. He is making tough decisions and has the confidence of his constituents.” Bonjean said DeWine “has been out in front, making the right decisions to keep Ohio voters safe from the virus. He led the way among our nation’s governors by working to flatten the curve by making early decisions to create social distancing and [limit] nonessential activities.”
DeWine is unlikely to run for president in 2024, though few were talking about New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in those terms before he received high marks for his coronavirus response. But he could help Trump hold on to a key battleground state this year.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis may be in the opposite category. Boasting a 65% job approval rating in February, including 46% among Democrats, this Trump ally has come under fire for moving slowly on social distancing for economic reasons, and it appears to be starting to put a dent in his numbers. Trump also took a hit in recent Florida polling.
Sens. Rick Scott and Marco Rubio, fellow Floridians seen as 2024 possibilities themselves, have urged action.
“Marco Rubio is being recognized for his efforts in leading the charge on the economic recovery with regard to the pandemic,” said Blakeman. “As chair of the Small Business Committee, he crafted a $377 billion relief package for small businesses at this time of crisis. He was able to reach across the aisle and get support and was tenacious in fighting for what is seen as a life preserver for small and medium businesses.”
