Ukraine war likely to drag on over winter, heat up again in spring

“The capture of the town would have limited operational value although it would potentially allow Russia to threaten the larger urban areas of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk,” the Defense Ministry said. “However, the campaign has been disproportionately costly relative to these possible gains.”

“I know how difficult it is in Bakhmut, in Donbas. Guys, hold on! I am with you. The people are with you,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address, during which he called on the country to pull together for the next 90 days as Ukraine attempts to patch up the energy infrastructure destroyed by Russia’s relentless missile barrages.

“The enemy really hopes to use winter against us — to make winter cold and hardship part of his terror,” Zelensky said. “We have to do everything to endure this winter, no matter how hard it is. And we will endure. To endure this winter is to defend everything.”

A BRUTAL WINTER IS COMING FOR RUSSIAN FORCES IN UKRAINE

ATTRITION OF RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUES: U.S. and Western intelligence agencies continue to see signs that Russia’s depleted and demoralized military is struggling with logistics and morale problems.

At the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, on Saturday, Avril Haines, U.S. director of national intelligence, said Russia is burning through its ammunition stockpiles, especially precision munitions, at an “extraordinary” rate.

“Our own sense is that they are not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage,” she said. “I don’t think I can give you precise numbers in this forum,” but she said Russian arsenals were being drained “quite quickly — I mean, it’s really pretty extraordinary.”

At the same time, the British Defense Ministry said Russian combat air operations have been drastically curtailed since the early days of the war, down from as many as 300 sorties a day in March to “the tens” today, because of the loss of aircraft and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses.

“Russia has now lost over 60 fixed-wing aircraft in the conflict, likely including an additional Su-24M FENCER fighter-bomber and a Su-25 FROGFOOT ground attack aircraft last week,” the ministry said in a tweet today. “With Russia’s ground attack tactics largely reliant on visual identification and unguided munitions, the Russian air force will likely continue a low rate of ground attack operations through the poor winter weather.”

UKRAINIAN MILITARY ACCUSES RUSSIA OF LAUNCHING DUMMY NUCLEAR-CAPABLE MISSILES

NO PAUSE FOR WINTER: At Saturday’s Reagan forum event, Haines said the United States has already noted “a kind of a reduced tempo” in the fighting and suggested that the winter weather might give both sides time to refit, resupply, and reconstitute ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring.

The suggestion that there might be any kind of “winter pause” was immediately disputed by a Ukrainian military spokesman, who said yesterday that “frozen ground enables heavy wheeled and tracked vehicles to advance and that Ukrainian forces are preparing such vehicles for winter operations,” according to the Institute for the Study of War.

“Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov stated on November 18 that Ukrainian forces will continue to fight in the winter because any type of pause will allow Russian forces to reinforce their units and positions,” the ISW reported, arguing that for Ukraine to maintain the initiative, it cannot let up during the winter.

“If Ukraine’s allies and partners do not support Ukrainian forces to conduct large-scale decisive counteroffensive operations this winter — as the DNI’s statements might be construed to suggest — then Ukrainians‘ ability to conduct maneuver warfare will be constrained,” the think tank said. “Such a course of action will likely prematurely culminate Ukraine‘s current momentum and grant shattered Russian forces a valuable three-to-four-month reprieve to reconstitute and prepare to fight on a better footing.”

“Those who are now talking about a possible ‘pause in hostilities’ due to freezing temperatures in the winter have likely never sunbathed in January on the southern coast of Crimea,” tweeted the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on Nov. 20.

FORMER NATO CHIEF CALLS ON US TO LIFT ‘SELF-IMPOSED RESTRICTIONS’ ON UKRAINE AID

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles at the Pentagon at 3 p.m.

THE BIG B-21 REVEAL: In a dramatic ceremony in Palmdale, California, on Friday, the Air Force and defense contractor Northrop Grumman uncloaked the B-21 Raider, a nuclear-capable stealth bomber billed as “the world’s first sixth-generation aircraft.”

The reveal was staged for maximum drama, with the batwing bomber bathed in blue light, while a huge veil of secrecy was literally pulled off the flying wing, which resembled its 1990s predecessor the B-2 but was smaller, with significant upgrades.

Austin was on hand and gushed about the strategic bomber, which will form one leg of America’s nuclear triad, after being produced on time and under budget. “The B-21 Raider is the first strategic bomber in more than three decades. It is a testament to America’s enduring advantages in ingenuity and innovation.”

The unveiling ceremony provided only a head-on view of the bomber, so it remains shrouded in secrecy, but one obvious difference from the B-2 is the color. Instead of black, its radar-evading skin was a light gray, which indicates the plane is designed to operate in daylight as well as at night.

“You know, the B-21 looks imposing. But what’s under the frame and the space-age coatings is even more impressive,” Austin said. “Fifty years of advances in low-observable technology have gone into this aircraft, and even the most sophisticated air defense systems will struggle to detect a B-21 in the sky.”

The mission of the $695 million plane is to send a strong message of deterrence, said Austin. “We are again making it plain to any potential foe: The risks and costs of aggression far outweigh any conceivable gains.”

The Air Force plans to buy at least 100 B-21s. Six B-21 test aircraft are in various stages of final assembly at Northrop Grumman’s Palmdale, California, facility.

‘THE DECISIVE DECADE’: Austin gave the keynote address at the Reagan National Defense Forum, with a speech titled The Decisive Decade, which was clearly focused on China. “These next few years will set the terms of our competition with the People’s Republic of China,” Austin said. “Ladies and gentlemen, the department is putting its focus, its time, and its money where its mouth is. … We’re aligning our budget as never before to the China challenge.”

“We’re going to sustain and sharpen our warfighting advantages so that the PRC can never conclude that aggression is in its best interest,” Austin said. “In recent decades, its military has embarked on a breakneck program of modernization. And the PRC is the only country with both the will and, increasingly, the power to reshape its region and the international order to suit its authoritarian preferences. So let me be clear: We will not let that happen.”

‘IT’S LIKE A VIRUS’: COVID-19 PROTESTS TEST XI JINPING’S REGIME

BLINKEN: PUTIN NOT INTERESTED IN DIPLOMACY: As calls for a diplomatic settlement to end the brutal war in Ukraine increase, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday there can be no talks with Russia “unless and until” Russian President Vladimir Putin “demonstrates that he’s actually interested in meaningful diplomacy.”

“What we’ve seen, at least recently, is exactly the contrary,” Blinken said on CBS’s Face the Nation. “He doubled and tripled down on everything he was doing, mobilizing more forces, annexing territory in Ukraine, and now trying to weaponize winter.”

“He’s been unable to win on the battlefield, so he’s basically turning his ire and his fire on Ukrainian civilians, going after the energy infrastructure, trying to turn off the lights, turn off the heat, turn off the electricity. That’s what’s going on.

“There’s always value in diplomacy if the parties in question and, in this case, Russia are actually interested in meaningful diplomacy,” but he added that under the current circumstances, “it’s unlikely to go anywhere.”

BLINKEN: RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR THREATS ‘STILL A FEAR IN AN EMERGENCY FOR THEM’

PRISONER SWAP OFFER STILL ON THE TABLE: Blinken told CBS’s Margaret Brennan that the U.S. has not given up on the possibility of a prisoner swap to free WNBA basketball star ​​Brittney Griner and former Marine Paul Whelan from captivity in Russia.

“We did put a significant proposal on the table many months ago,” said Blinken. “And since then, we’ve been engaged repeatedly in any way that we can to try to advance it and to look to see if there are different permutations that could achieve what we’re trying to achieve, which is to get our people home.”

The U.S. has reportedly offered to release convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, known as the “Merchant of Death,” in return for Griner and Whelan, but Brennan pressed Blinken on Russia’s demand for a one-for-one deal.

“I’m not going to get into the details of this,” Blinken said. “It would be counterproductive for me to get into the specifics of anything that we’re saying or that the Russians are saying and that we’re hearing.”

“We are not resting on the laurels of having put forward a proposal some months ago. We’ve been actively engaged over these many months to try to move things forward. As they say, Margaret, the proof will be in the pudding. We have to see if the engagements that we’ve had, the discussions that we have, produce an actual result.”

PAUL WHELAN PHONES PARENTS FROM PRISON HOSPITAL, DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Former NATO chief calls on US to lift ‘self-imposed restrictions’ on Ukraine aid

Washington Examiner: Blinken: Russia’s nuclear threats ‘still a fear in an emergency for them’

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian military accuses Russia of launching dummy nuclear-capable missiles

Washington Examiner: Paul Whelan phones parents from prison hospital, details remain elusive

Washington Examiner: ‘It’s like a virus’: COVID-19 protests test Xi Jinping’s regime

Washington Examiner: Coming OPEC+ meeting draws close scrutiny after Biden’s Saudi spat

Washington Examiner: Opinion: A brutal winter is coming for Russian forces in Ukraine

Wall Street Journal: Ukraine Says Oil Cap Won’t Hurt Kremlin

AP: US intel chief thinking ‘optimistically’ for Ukraine forces

Washington Post: Pentagon Eyes Major Expansion of Ukraine Military Training

Politico: We Haven’t Got This Figured Out Just Yet’: Pentagon, Industry Struggle To Arm Ukraine

Military.com: Vaccine Mandate Is Hurting Recruiting, Top Marines General Says

Marine Corps Times: Appeals Court Weighs Order To Force Corps To Accommodate Sikhs

Washington Post: Edward Snowden swears allegiance to Russia and receives passport, lawyer says

Military Times: Austin Urges Congress: Pass A Timely Budget

Defense News: Chinese, Russian Long-Range Bombers Make Reciprocal Base Visits

National Interest: Top Indo-Pacific Commander Watching For ‘Potential’ Chinese Aggression Linked To Protests

Aviation Week: US Has Sent Threat Emitters to Ukraine to Confuse Russian Aircraft

Wall Street Journal: North Korea’s Powerful New Missile Falls Short As A Weapon

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Disinformation, Data Collection are Cybersecurity Concerns, Kendall Says

Task & Purpose: U.S. Navy Seizes Massive Shipment Of Ammo, Explosive Material In Gulf Of Oman

Air & Space Forces Magazine: American Public’s Concern About Nuclear War Growing, Survey Finds

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon’s strategic capital office to spur investment in defense tech

Air & Space Forces Magazine: CSAF Honorarily Promotes America’s Only Living Triple Ace to Brigadier General

19fortyfive.com: B-21 Raider Unveiling: A Message to China and Russia? You Bet It Was

19fortyfive.com: Should Sweden Forget About Joining NATO?

19fortyfive.com: Russia Is Not Happy With Putin’s War in Ukraine (More Like Disaster)

19fortyfive.com: Don’t Tell Putin: Yes, Ukraine Can Defeat the Mighty Russian Military

Washington Post: Opinion: We’re America’s most loyal ally in Syria. Don’t forget us.

Calendar

MONDAY | DECEMBER 5 

8:30 a.m. — Stimson Center forum: “Voices from Japan: Japan’s National Security Strategy in the Era of Strategic Competition,” Nobukatsu Kanehara, professor, faculty of law, Department of Political Science, Doshisha University; and Yuki Tatsumi, director, Japan Program, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/voices-from-japan

12 p.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “War and the Future of Europe,” with Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of the Visegrad Insight; Goran Buldioski, managing director for Europe and Eurasia at the Open Society Foundations; Michael Meyer-Resende, executive director of Democracy Reporting International; Philipp Fritz, correspondent at Die Welt; and Zsuzsanna Vegh, GMFUS visiting fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/war-and-future-europe

12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Russia’s War in Ukraine: An End in Sight?” with Michael Kofman, senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analysis’s Russia Studies Program; and Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

2 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council 2022 Central Europe Week, focusing on “how the U.S. and Central Europe can together lead in shaping transatlantic responses during times of war and geopolitical crisis,” with keynote remarks on “NATO’s adaptation for a more secure and prosperous future” and a panel discussion on “Grappling with the geopolitical reality on NATO’s Eastern Front.” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/europe-center

2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual and in-person event: “The Convergence of National Security and Homeland Security,” with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas https://www.csis.org/events/convergence-national-security

3 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles

3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy, with author Suisheng Zhao, director of the University of Denver’s Center for China-U.S. Cooperation https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-dragon-roars-back

7 p.m. — Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House chief of staff Ron Klain https://ceocouncil.wsj.com/event/ceo-council-summit

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 6

11:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “The Role of Digital Management Systems in Ukraine’s Reconstruction,” with Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandra Azarkhina; Maksym Nefyodov, head of CSO Technologies of Progress and Kyiv City Council member; Oleksii Dorogan, CEO of the Better Regulation Delivery Office and co-founder of RISE Ukraine; former Georgian Minister of Foreign Affairs Eka Tkeshelashvili, chief of party of Anti-Corruption Champion Institutions in Ukraine https://www.csis.org/events/role-digital-management-systems

12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Australia’s Role in the China Struggle,” with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison https://www.hudson.org/events/australia-role-china-struggle

2 p.m. — Atlantic Council forum: “Securing space: Preparing for future space contingencies,” with Principal Defense Department Director of Space and Missile Defense Policy Travis Langster; Mariel Borowitz, associate professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology’s School of International Affairs; John Klein, faculty member at the George Washington University Space Policy Institute; Victoria Samson, director of the Secure World Foundation’s Washington office; and Daniel Tenney, vice president of strategy and business development at Lockheed Martin Space https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/securing-space/

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 7

8:30 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: ”The role of NATO allies in supporting and defending Ukraine against Russian aggression,” with Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte https://www.gmfus.org/event/conversation-prime-minister-lithuania

9 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “South Korean foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific,” with Victor Cha, Korea chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Kuyoun Chung, assistant professor of political science at Kangwon National University; Andrew Yeo, senior fellow at the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies; and Mireya Solis, director of the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies https://www.brookings.edu/events/south-korean-foreign-policy-in-the-indo-pacific/

10:30 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Prosecuting the Crime of Aggression in Ukraine,” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Lesia Zaburanna, member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Anton Korynevych, ambassador-at-large at the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; David Scheffer, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; William Taylor, vice president of the USIP Russia and Europe Center; and Lise Grande, president and CEO of USIP https://www.usip.org/events/prosecuting-crime-aggression-ukraine

1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, “Precision and Posture: Defense Spending Trends and the FY23 Budget Request,” with Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Force Readiness Kimberly Jackson and Katie Wheelbarger, vice president for global program support at Lockheed Martin https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event

12:53 p.m. 1750 Independence Ave. S.W. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service wreath-laying ceremony commemorating the 81st anniversary of the Battle of Pearl Harbor, with Jeff Reinbold, superintendent of the National Mall and Memorial Parks; and Jane Droppa, chairwoman of the Friends of the National World War II Memorial; and keynote address by Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff https://www.facebook.com/WWIIMemorialFriends

2:30 p.m. 562 Dirksen — The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Crowdsourcing Victory: Inside the Civil Society Campaign to Improve the Lethality and Survivability of the Ukrainian Military,” with Dora Chomiak, president of Razom for Ukraine; Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive foundation; Serhiy Prytula, founder and chairman of the Prytula Charity Foundation; and Jonas Ohman, founder and head of Blue/Yellow for Ukraine

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 8

8 a.m. 2401 M St. N.W. — George Washington Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger Contact: Thom Shanker at [email protected]

8 a.m. 1700 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter Air Force IT Day 2022 forum, with Air Force Chief Information Officer Lauren Knausenberger; Air Force Maj. Gen. John Olson, acting chief digital and artificial intelligence officer; Thomas Sasala, Navy chief data officer; and Kristyn Jones, comptroller and assistant Air Force secretary for financial management https://afceanova.swoogo.com/AirForceITDay2022

9 a.m. 801 Wharf St. S.W. — Aspen Strategy Group’s “Aspen Security Forum: D.C. Edition,” with Kathleen Hicks, deputy defense secretary; David Turk, deputy energy secretary; Sen. Todd Young (R-IN); Pekka Haavisto, Finnish foreign affairs minister; Zbigniew Rau, Polish foreign affairs minister; Tobias Lindner, German minister of state; Enrique Mora, deputy secretary-general, European External Action Service; Arati Prabhakar, director, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; and Zoe Baird, senior counselor to the secretary for technology and economic growth, U.S. Department of Commerce https://web.cvent.com/event

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion: on “Unpacking the Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report,” with Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for China Michael Chase; Assistant Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner; Zack Cooper, AEI senior fellow; and Mackenzie Eaglen, AEI senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/unpacking-the-pentagons-2022-china-military-power-report

10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “The History and Future of U.S. Sanctions Policy: What the Evolution of U.S. Sanctions Can Tell Us About Promoting Peace in Ukraine and Beyond,” with former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Stephen Rademaker, senior counsel at Covington; former White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley; and Lise Grande, president and CEO of USIP https://www.usip.org/events/history-and-future-us-sanctions-policy

11 a.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe virtual briefing: “Demining Ukraine: A Prerequisite for Recovery,” with Michael Tirre, program manager for Europe in the State Department’s Political-Military Affairs Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement; Todd Biggs, vice president for munitions response at Tetra Tech; and Tony Connell, Ukraine country director at the Swiss Foundation for Demining DATE: Dec. 8, 2022 https://ushr.webex.com/webappng/sites/ushr/meeting/register

12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Cato Institute discussion: “How Much Does China Really Spend on Defense,” with Eric Heginbotham, principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Frederico Bartels, consultant at Pantheon Integrated Solutions; and Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute https://www.cato.org/events/how-much-does-china-really-spend-defense

3 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research event: “Standing Up to China Means Standing with Taiwan, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); and Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-sen-dan-sullivan

3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Understanding the Broader Transatlantic Security Implications of Greater Sino-Russian Military Alignment,” with Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe Program; Jude Blanchette, CSIS chairman in China studies; Bonny Lin; director of the CSIS China Power Project; and Brian Hart, fellow at the CSIS China Power Project https://www.csis.org/events/understanding-broader-transatlantic-security-implications

3:30 p.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe virtual briefing: “Russia’s Infrastructure Terrorists,” with Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandra Azarkhina https://tinyurl.com/447w272w

5 p.m. 111 Broadway, New York, New York — The Common Good virtual discussion with U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield and Gillian Sorensen, member of the Common Good’s Honorary Advisory Board and former assistant secretary general special adviser for public policy at the U.N. https://www.thecommongoodus.org/upcoming-events/un-ambassador-linda-thomas-greenfield

6 p.m. — Economic Club of Washington, D.C. discussion: with French Ambassador to the U.S. Philippe Etienne https://www.economicclub.org/events/he-philippe-etienne

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 9

9: a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “A Marshall Plan Blueprint for Ukraine,” with Ukraine Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; John Hewko, general secretary of the Rotary International and the Rotary Fund; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and Heather Conley, GMFUS president https://www.gmfus.org/event/marshall-plan-blueprint-ukraine