Be careful what you wish for.
Unless President Trump’s election lawsuits prevail, apparent winner Joe Biden could take office under a challenging set of circumstances.
Conservatives will have a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, including three Trump nominees. Republicans may continue to have a majority in the Senate, depending on what happens in the Georgia runoffs. It will certainly be a far cry from the filibuster-proof, 60-40 Democratic majority that former President Barack Obama enjoyed for part of his first year in office. The GOP added seats in the House and could be well positioned to recapture the majority in the 2022 midterm elections, held shortly before Biden’s 80th birthday.
A new Democratic administration would take office in the midst of a pandemic and economic downturn. Biden has suggested on the campaign trail that he would contemplate renewed lockdowns and a national mask mandate. Many of his supporters have directly blamed the president for the COVID-19 death toll in the United States. There are currently over 10 million cases in the country.
“The 46th president will confront a divided country beset by unprecedented and complex set of difficulties,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “Election returns and exit polls revealed sharp differences between men and women and white and minority Americans. The new president will immediately need to confront the ravages of the pandemic, rebuild a shattered economy, and address the looming threat of climate change.”
Divisions within the Democratic Party have also resurfaced since the election, as centrists have accused the most liberal members of their party of saddling them with issues such as “defund the police” that are indefensible to their constituents. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who was narrowly reelected in her Virginia swing district, warned of getting “torn apart” in the next election if Democrats continued to run on progressive priorities. A former top Biden aide described Trump as the “glue” that held the coalition stretching from Republican John Kasich to socialist Bernie Sanders together.
“His response to these challenges will be limited by a Republican Senate, barring a Democratic sweep of special elections in January, a solidly conservative Supreme Court majority, unrelenting hostility from Trump supporters, and differences within his own party between establishment and progressive Democrats,” Bannon said. “Joe Biden will have his work cut out for him with a Senate controlled by the GOP and run by Mitch McConnell. He ran on a platform of bringing people together, and now, he’ll get his chance.”
Biden would also take office with Republicans and Trump voters as suspicious of his win as Democrats were following the Florida 2000 recount that was decided by a conservative majority on the Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore or after the 2016 election when intelligence reports about Russian interference surfaced.
“I think we’d be pretty well positioned for 2022 and beyond,” said a Republican strategist who requested anonymity so as not to be seen as conceding this year’s election before Trump’s legal challenges and various recounts are resolved. Both Obama and former President Bill Clinton won by larger margins and faced big setbacks in their first midterm elections, although they were both reelected. Republicans took control of the House in 2010 and of both houses of Congress in 1994, the latter representing the first GOP House majority in 40 years.
The former vice president campaigned as an institutionalist with extensive Beltway experience who could work across the aisle. He was often Obama’s point man on Capitol Hill.
“To those who voted for President Trump, I understand your disappointment tonight,” Biden said as he declared victory in the disputed race. “I’ve lost a couple of elections myself. But now, let’s give each other a chance.”
“Biden will need to use his presidential pulpit and the climate of national emergency to his advantage. The new president has a relationship with the majority leader from their years together in the upper chamber, so at least they can talk,” Bannon said. “Biden will also try to pick off GOP senators like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski to support his agenda.”
Centrists, including the Republican senators from Maine and Alaska or West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, could have renewed power in a closely divided Senate.
Biden argued throughout the campaign that he could be a unifying figure. Both he and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, downplayed some of their more liberal positions from the primaries and the “unity” platform adopted in concert with Sanders’s supporters. But Biden will undoubtedly face pressure from his left flank, which is why he also claimed a mandate.
Trump has yet to concede in the presidential race as he works his way through challenges in multiple states.
“This election is not over, far from it,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said at the Republican National Committee headquarters on Monday.
