The FBI has disrupted a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and put her on trial for “treason.” Presumably, Whitmer would then have been executed.
In stopping this serious threat, the FBI has again proven its effective coverage of organized and prospective far-right terrorist cells. Second, the plot would have caused an innocent loss of life if carried out, but likely also would have failed.
On the first count, the FBI affidavit shows that the bureau had the terrorist cell under extensive surveillance from the moment its attack plot, led by one Adam Fox, developed. The sourcing investigation began when “the FBI became aware through social media that a group of individuals was discussing the violent overthrow of certain government and law-enforcement components.” Detection of that ranting is often crucial to disrupting terrorist plots. As I explained in September, the far-right “ranting factor has a positive to the rest of us. For one, it attracts law enforcement attention to those promising violence.”
Fox subsequently reached out to a Michigan militia group and successfully recruited some of its members to join his conspiracy. That militia had previously discussed attacking police officers.
But the FBI was ready. Its affidavit says agents “interviewed a member of the militia group who was concerned about the group’s [prior detected] plans to target and kill police officers, and that person agreed to become [an informant].” (Not all militia members are criminals, after all.) By the time this plot was fully underway, the FBI had penetrated Fox’s cell with two undercover sources and two undercover agents. Neither of the confidential informants knew the other was an informant, so both were operationally redundant to one another. Regardless, the FBI’s possession of four inside sources within the cell tells you something — where far-right threats to life exist, the FBI is on top of it. This was the case with Whitmer, and it is the case with other far-right plots, such as those that target Black Lives Matter protesters. I emphasize this because it receives inadequate media attention.
Fox and his accused co-conspirators did make some effort at operational security. The affidavit notes that prior to a planning meeting, Fox “collected all of their cellular phones in a box and carried them upstairs to prevent any monitoring. [informant 2] was wearing a recording device, however, and captured the audio from the meeting.”
Fortunately for Americans, if not for Fox, that tactic isn’t going to cut it. Thanks to the FBI’s Science and Technology Branch, agents can now employ covert recording devices that are almost impossible to detect, even with scanning technology and full-body searches. The utility of this technology is that it enables critical evidence gathering, fuels internal suspicion within terrorist cells (they must ask themselves who might be an informant?), and thus, deters some terrorist plotting.
But even if it had been attempted, the actual kidnap of Whitmer would have faced its own challenges.
The cell conducted two surveillance operations at one of Whitmer’s vacation homes, but they did not appear to penetrate the inner perimeter. Had they done so, they would likely have tripped a number of alarm systems. Whitmer’s State Trooper security detail likely only has three to five officers on duty at any one time, but her residences will have stronghold-ready safe rooms. Were an attack to begin, Whitmer’s detail would immediately call for backup and relocate the governor to such a room. At that point, advanced breaching explosives would be required. The militia probably lacks these, in light of its shoddy attempts to build IEDs.
Finally, due to her controversial policies on COVID-19, Whitmer’s security detail was almost certainly increased even before the FBI learned of this kidnap plot. It would have been significantly boosted as soon as the plot was detected.
Then again, even when the plot failed, it probably would have resulted in the murder of some of Whitmer’s security detail. If the militiamen had succeeded in kidnapping her, the FBI’s Hostage Rescue Team, a tier-one national special operations unit, would have been deployed to Michigan within two hours of an alert notice, which would have come as soon as Whitmer was reported kidnapped. HRT agents and associated intelligence assets are exceptionally capable, so a rescue operation for Whitmer would have been feasible. Because of federal counterterrorism laws centered around metadata and related to big data pattern analysis, I am also very confident the FBI would have been able to trace the cell quickly to their hideout.
In short, the ambition and intent within this plot is what makes it so serious. The capacity to carry it out? Not so much.
